Rankings/Muskegon-Norton Shores, MI

Muskegon-Norton Shores, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34740Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Muskegon experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Muskegon's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p97 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p73 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p61 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+5.0%p54

Days on Market YoY

-1.7%p44

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.4%p29

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum73

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth61

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita33

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability97

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.8%	p73
Permit Growth	+5.3%	p61
Permits/1K Pop	2.72	p33
Affordability	0.37	p97
Employment	+1.2%	p15
Net AGI Migration	+$22K	p45

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+5.0%

Days on Market YoY-1.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	57	85	82	96	8	45
2025-09	Rec	59	94	82	96	12	45
2025-07	Exp	70	95	82	96	78	45
2025-05	Exp	66	96	82	96	53	45
2025-04	Hyp	67	96	82	96	57	45
2025-03	Exp	63	96	82	96	33	45
2025-02	Rec	65	93	82	96	45	45
2024-12	Rec	58	71	82	94	28	45
2024-11	Hyp	58	80	82	94	20	45
2024-09	Rec	61	85	82	92	36	45
2024-08	Hyp	58	90	82	92	9	45
2024-06	Hyp	55	72	82	91	11	45
2024-05	Ress	52	61	82	91	7	45
2024-03	Ress	58	86	82	92	18	45
2023-12	Ress	62	87	82	84	44	45
2023-09	Hyp	59	82	82	82	36	45
2023-08	Exp	63	88	82	82	52	45
2023-07	Rec	62	89	82	82	47	45
2023-05	Rec	72	99	82	85	91	45
2023-04	Hyp	72	99	82	85	92	45
2023-02	Ress	64	69	82	78	85	45
2022-12	Ress	63	70	82	80	76	45
2022-09	Rec	58	41	82	77	74	45
2022-08	Ress	51	41	82	77	35	45
2022-07	Hyp	53	40	82	77	45	45
2022-05	Hyp	48	53	82	76	7	45
2022-04	Exp	51	62	82	76	12	45
2022-02	Exp	52	67	82	79	15	45
2022-01	Rec	51	65	82	79	7	45
2021-11	Rec	52	64	82	74	12	51
2021-10	Exp	53	64	82	74	23	51
2021-08	Exp	55	79	82	75	19	51
2021-05	Exp	50	69	82	70	2	51
2021-04	Rec	50	72	82	70	2	51
2021-02	Rec	64	84	82	70	74	51
2021-01	Exp	66	83	82	70	85	51
2020-11	Exp	66	93	82	77	77	43
2020-10	Rec	67	93	82	77	79	43
2020-08	Rec	66	79	82	75	92	43
2020-06	Exp	62	55	82	74	95	43
2020-04	Exp	65	66	82	74	97	43
2020-03	Rec	61	70	82	73	72	43
2020-01	Rec	66	78	82	73	93	43
2019-12	Exp	67	89	82	73	97	36
2019-10	Exp	68	96	82	73	96	36
2019-07	Rec	68	96	82	73	95	36
2019-05	Rec	68	94	82	71	96	36
2019-03	Exp	66	88	82	69	97	36
2019-01	Exp	66	87	82	69	98	36

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022