Rankings/Montgomery, AL

Montgomery, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33860Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Montgomery's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Montgomery experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp56

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+5.8%p55

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.4%p82

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.4%p38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+1.4%p56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.13p22

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.20p4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$80Kp90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+1.4%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 49.5%

4 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Montgomery's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Autauga County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Elmore County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.8Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Montgomery, AL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Autauga County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Elmore County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Autauga CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	15.9%	100	0	50
Montgomery County	62	Elevated	60.3%	50	50	100
Lowndes CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Elmore CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	23.8%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	35	10	35	3	62	78
2025-09	Rec	36	20	35	3	56	78
2025-08	Hyp	34	28	35	3	36	78
2025-06	Ress	35	25	35	3	46	78
2025-04	Ress	36	45	35	3	31	78
2025-01	Rec	46	92	35	5	47	78
2024-12	Hyp	45	96	35	4	37	78
2024-11	Rec	43	95	35	4	27	78
2024-10	Hyp	43	93	35	4	26	78
2024-08	Hyp	32	40	35	4	14	78
2024-05	Ress	28	23	35	4	8	78
2024-03	Ress	30	19	35	3	23	78
2024-01	Hyp	28	12	35	3	16	78
2023-11	Ress	30	16	35	4	28	78
2023-09	Ress	37	42	35	6	38	78
2023-08	Rec	38	46	35	6	45	78
2023-06	Hyp	36	39	35	5	37	78
2023-04	Hyp	39	55	35	5	39	78
2023-02	Ress	44	61	35	6	61	78
2022-12	Ress	48	61	35	6	87	78
2022-09	Hyp	47	56	35	6	86	78
2022-08	Exp	47	52	35	6	89	78
2022-06	Exp	41	17	35	5	88	78
2022-03	Exp	46	43	35	6	94	78
2022-01	Rec	41	26	35	7	81	78
2021-11	Rec	38	10	34	11	72	84
2021-10	Exp	38	9	34	11	70	84
2021-08	Exp	35	9	34	11	52	84
2021-05	Exp	40	7	34	10	82	84
2021-03	Rec	32	11	34	12	33	84
2021-01	Rec	31	14	34	12	24	84
2020-10	Exp	33	28	34	6	24	86
2020-08	Exp	38	31	34	6	50	86
2020-07	Rec	38	31	34	6	52	86
2020-05	Rec	40	52	34	7	39	86
2020-02	Rec	42	20	34	6	85	86
2020-01	Exp	40	17	34	6	76	86
2019-11	Exp	38	18	34	6	67	81
2019-08	Exp	39	23	34	6	71	81
2019-06	Rec	39	19	34	6	73	81
2019-04	Rec	39	15	34	6	78	81
2019-03	Exp	41	22	34	7	81	81
2019-01	Exp	42	21	34	7	86	81

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023