Rankings/Montgomery, AL

Montgomery, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33860Compare

Risk Rank: #234 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Montgomery experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Montgomery's housing market shows average risk, ranking 234th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p78 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p78 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p57 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+5.8%p55

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.4%p96

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum9

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth57

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita22

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability3

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration78

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.5%	p9
Permit Growth	+1.4%	p57
Permits/1K Pop	2.13	p22
Affordability	0.20	p3
Employment	-0.3%	p78
Net AGI Migration	-$49K	p78

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+1.4%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+5.8%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Montgomery's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Montgomery County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Elmore County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Montgomery, AL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Montgomery County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Elmore County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Montgomery CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	50	100
Autauga County	50	Average	33.3%	100	0	50
Lowndes CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Elmore CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	35	10	35	3	62	78
2025-09	Rec	36	20	35	3	56	78
2025-08	Hyp	34	28	35	3	36	78
2025-06	Ress	35	25	35	3	46	78
2025-04	Ress	36	45	35	3	31	78
2025-01	Rec	46	92	35	5	47	78
2024-12	Hyp	45	96	35	4	37	78
2024-11	Rec	43	95	35	4	27	78
2024-10	Hyp	43	93	35	4	26	78
2024-08	Hyp	32	40	35	4	14	78
2024-05	Ress	28	23	35	4	8	78
2024-03	Ress	30	19	35	3	23	78
2024-01	Hyp	28	12	35	3	16	78
2023-11	Ress	30	16	35	4	28	78
2023-09	Ress	37	42	35	6	38	78
2023-08	Rec	38	46	35	6	45	78
2023-06	Hyp	36	39	35	5	37	78
2023-04	Hyp	39	55	35	5	39	78
2023-02	Ress	44	61	35	6	61	78
2022-12	Ress	48	61	35	6	87	78
2022-09	Hyp	47	56	35	6	86	78
2022-08	Exp	47	52	35	6	89	78
2022-06	Exp	41	17	35	5	88	78
2022-03	Exp	46	43	35	6	94	78
2022-01	Rec	41	26	35	7	81	78
2021-11	Rec	38	10	34	11	72	84
2021-10	Exp	38	9	34	11	70	84
2021-08	Exp	35	9	34	11	52	84
2021-05	Exp	40	7	34	10	82	84
2021-03	Rec	32	11	34	12	33	84
2021-01	Rec	31	14	34	12	24	84
2020-10	Exp	33	28	34	6	24	86
2020-08	Exp	38	31	34	6	50	86
2020-07	Rec	38	31	34	6	52	86
2020-05	Rec	40	52	34	7	39	86
2020-02	Rec	42	20	34	6	85	86
2020-01	Exp	40	17	34	6	76	86
2019-11	Exp	38	18	34	6	67	81
2019-08	Exp	39	23	34	6	71	81
2019-06	Rec	39	19	34	6	73	81
2019-04	Rec	39	15	34	6	78	81
2019-03	Exp	41	22	34	7	81	81
2019-01	Exp	42	21	34	7	86	81

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022