Rankings/Montgomery, AL

Montgomery, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33860Compare

Risk Rank: #142 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +15

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Montgomery's housing market shows average risk, ranking 142nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Montgomery experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp66

YoY permit change

Price Momentump61

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.7%p52

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p68

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.8%p61

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+10.9%p66

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.27p23

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p3

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p52

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$80Kp90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+10.9%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 49.5%

4 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Montgomery's 4 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low4.4Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Montgomery, AL shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Elmore County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Autauga County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Elmore CountyRisk Driver	58	Elevated	23.2%	100	33	67
Montgomery County	58	Elevated	58.7%	0	67	100
Autauga CountyStabilizer	46	Average	15.5%	50	0	33
Lowndes County<5%	33	Below Average	2.5%	—	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	55	99	56	5	59	90
2025-12	Rec	48	38	56	4	78	90
2025-09	Rec	36	20	35	3	56	78
2025-08	Hyp	34	28	35	3	36	78
2025-06	Ress	35	25	35	3	46	78
2025-04	Ress	36	45	35	3	31	78
2025-01	Rec	46	92	35	5	47	78
2024-12	Hyp	45	96	35	4	37	78
2024-11	Rec	43	95	35	4	27	78
2024-10	Hyp	43	93	35	4	26	78
2024-08	Hyp	32	40	35	4	14	78
2024-05	Ress	28	23	35	4	8	78
2024-03	Ress	30	19	35	3	23	78
2024-01	Hyp	28	12	35	3	16	78
2023-11	Ress	30	16	35	4	28	78
2023-09	Ress	37	42	35	6	38	78
2023-08	Rec	38	46	35	6	45	78
2023-06	Hyp	36	39	35	5	37	78
2023-04	Hyp	39	55	35	5	39	78
2023-02	Ress	44	61	35	6	61	78
2022-12	Ress	48	61	35	6	87	78
2022-09	Hyp	47	56	35	6	86	78
2022-08	Exp	47	52	35	6	89	78
2022-06	Exp	41	17	35	5	88	78
2022-03	Exp	46	43	35	6	94	78
2022-01	Rec	41	26	35	7	81	78
2021-11	Rec	38	10	34	11	72	84
2021-10	Exp	38	9	34	11	70	84
2021-08	Exp	35	9	34	11	52	84
2021-05	Exp	40	7	34	10	82	84
2021-03	Rec	32	11	34	12	33	84
2021-01	Rec	31	14	34	12	24	84
2020-10	Exp	33	28	34	6	24	86
2020-08	Exp	38	31	34	6	50	86
2020-07	Rec	38	31	34	6	52	86
2020-05	Rec	40	52	34	7	39	86
2020-02	Rec	42	20	34	6	85	86
2020-01	Exp	40	17	34	6	76	86
2019-11	Exp	38	18	34	6	67	81
2019-08	Exp	39	23	34	6	71	81
2019-06	Rec	39	19	34	6	73	81
2019-04	Rec	39	15	34	6	78	81
2019-03	Exp	41	22	34	7	81	81
2019-01	Exp	42	21	34	7	86	81

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023