Monroe, MI

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 33780Compare

Risk Rank: #241 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -7

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Monroe's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 241st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Monroe experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump73

12-month HPI change

Migrationp45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-3.0%p45

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.7%p38

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.5%p73

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-27.4%p11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.18p8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.9%p86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$13Kp45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-27.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 16.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	34	77	7	7	62	45
2025-10	Rec	41	94	32	8	64	40
2025-08	Rec	44	91	32	8	85	40
2025-06	Ress	42	67	32	7	98	40
2025-04	Hyp	45	83	32	7	100	40
2025-03	Exp	46	91	32	6	97	40
2025-01	Rec	44	92	32	6	85	40
2024-11	Rec	40	81	32	7	72	40
2024-10	Ress	38	73	32	7	67	40
2024-09	Hyp	41	79	32	6	80	40
2024-08	Ress	41	74	32	6	84	40
2024-06	Ress	26	51	32	5	20	40
2024-05	Rec	26	64	32	5	7	40
2024-03	Hyp	20	33	32	4	0	40
2024-01	Hyp	19	29	32	4	0	40
2023-11	Exp	22	42	32	6	0	40
2023-09	Exp	23	52	32	6	0	40
2023-08	Rec	24	56	32	6	0	40
2023-06	Rec	21	33	32	5	6	40
2023-05	Exp	21	31	32	5	9	40
2023-03	Exp	30	31	32	6	62	40
2023-02	Hyp	33	29	32	6	83	40
2023-01	Exp	32	26	32	6	77	40
2022-11	Exp	24	27	32	8	29	40
2022-08	Exp	16	8	32	7	2	40
2022-06	Rec	16	7	32	8	2	40
2022-04	Rec	16	6	32	8	2	40
2022-03	Exp	18	9	32	8	7	40
2022-01	Exp	17	9	32	8	2	40
2021-12	Rec	19	11	32	8	5	46
2021-10	Rec	31	11	32	8	80	46
2021-09	Exp	31	13	32	8	78	46
2021-07	Exp	31	24	32	8	65	46
2021-04	Exp	24	41	32	8	4	46
2021-01	Exp	39	44	32	9	93	46
2020-11	Rec	42	64	32	9	92	42
2020-09	Rec	34	28	32	8	80	42
2020-06	Rec	32	11	32	7	91	42
2020-03	Rec	39	61	32	8	78	42
2019-12	Exp	33	31	32	7	79	36
2019-10	Exp	32	10	32	7	97	36
2019-09	Rec	35	27	32	7	99	36
2019-07	Rec	41	63	32	7	96	36
2019-04	Rec	39	57	32	7	89	36
2019-03	Exp	38	43	32	7	96	36
2019-01	Exp	36	30	32	7	98	36

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023