Monroe, MI

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 33780Compare

Risk Rank: #272 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -22

22score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Monroe's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 272nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Monroe experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp37

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp28

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-9.1%p38

Days on Market YoY

-4.9%p37

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.9%p98

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.5%p5

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-10.9%p28

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.31p9

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p6

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p37

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$13Kp45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-10.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 16.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	32	49	14	8	70	45
2025-12	Exp	34	77	7	7	62	45
2025-10	Rec	41	94	32	8	64	40
2025-08	Rec	44	91	32	8	85	40
2025-06	Ress	42	67	32	7	98	40
2025-04	Hyp	45	83	32	7	100	40
2025-03	Exp	46	91	32	6	97	40
2025-01	Rec	44	92	32	6	85	40
2024-11	Rec	40	81	32	7	72	40
2024-10	Ress	38	73	32	7	67	40
2024-09	Hyp	41	79	32	6	80	40
2024-08	Ress	41	74	32	6	84	40
2024-06	Ress	26	51	32	5	20	40
2024-05	Rec	26	64	32	5	7	40
2024-03	Hyp	20	33	32	4	0	40
2024-01	Hyp	19	29	32	4	0	40
2023-11	Exp	22	42	32	6	0	40
2023-09	Exp	23	52	32	6	0	40
2023-08	Rec	24	56	32	6	0	40
2023-06	Rec	21	33	32	5	6	40
2023-05	Exp	21	31	32	5	9	40
2023-03	Exp	30	31	32	6	62	40
2023-02	Hyp	33	29	32	6	83	40
2023-01	Exp	32	26	32	6	77	40
2022-11	Exp	24	27	32	8	29	40
2022-08	Exp	16	8	32	7	2	40
2022-06	Rec	16	7	32	8	2	40
2022-04	Rec	16	6	32	8	2	40
2022-03	Exp	18	9	32	8	7	40
2022-01	Exp	17	9	32	8	2	40
2021-12	Rec	19	11	32	8	5	46
2021-10	Rec	31	11	32	8	80	46
2021-09	Exp	31	13	32	8	78	46
2021-07	Exp	31	24	32	8	65	46
2021-04	Exp	24	41	32	8	4	46
2021-01	Exp	39	44	32	9	93	46
2020-11	Rec	42	64	32	9	92	42
2020-09	Rec	34	28	32	8	80	42
2020-06	Rec	32	11	32	7	91	42
2020-03	Rec	39	61	32	8	78	42
2019-12	Exp	33	31	32	7	79	36
2019-10	Exp	32	10	32	7	97	36
2019-09	Rec	35	27	32	7	99	36
2019-07	Rec	41	63	32	7	96	36
2019-04	Rec	39	57	32	7	89	36
2019-03	Exp	38	43	32	7	96	36
2019-01	Exp	36	30	32	7	98	36

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023