Monroe, MI

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 33780Compare

Risk Rank: #267 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Monroe experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Monroe's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 267th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p92 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p62 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p41 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +7% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+10.7%p60

Days on Market YoY

+7.1%p62

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.8%p17

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum92

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth6

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita7

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability9

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration41

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.7%	p92
Permit Growth	-32.0%	p6
Permits/1K Pop	1.22	p7
Affordability	0.22	p9
Employment	+0.0%	p62
Net AGI Migration	+$37K	p41

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-32.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+10.7%

Days on Market YoY+7.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	45	93	32	8	88	40
2025-10	Rec	41	94	32	8	64	40
2025-08	Rec	44	91	32	8	85	40
2025-06	Ress	42	67	32	7	98	40
2025-04	Hyp	45	83	32	7	100	40
2025-03	Exp	46	91	32	6	97	40
2025-01	Rec	44	92	32	6	85	40
2024-11	Rec	40	81	32	7	72	40
2024-10	Ress	38	73	32	7	67	40
2024-09	Hyp	41	79	32	6	80	40
2024-08	Ress	41	74	32	6	84	40
2024-06	Ress	26	51	32	5	20	40
2024-05	Rec	26	64	32	5	7	40
2024-03	Hyp	20	33	32	4	0	40
2024-01	Hyp	19	29	32	4	0	40
2023-11	Exp	22	42	32	6	0	40
2023-09	Exp	23	52	32	6	0	40
2023-08	Rec	24	56	32	6	0	40
2023-06	Rec	21	33	32	5	6	40
2023-05	Exp	21	31	32	5	9	40
2023-03	Exp	30	31	32	6	62	40
2023-02	Hyp	33	29	32	6	83	40
2023-01	Exp	32	26	32	6	77	40
2022-11	Exp	24	27	32	8	29	40
2022-08	Exp	16	8	32	7	2	40
2022-06	Rec	16	7	32	8	2	40
2022-04	Rec	16	6	32	8	2	40
2022-03	Exp	18	9	32	8	7	40
2022-01	Exp	17	9	32	8	2	40
2021-12	Rec	19	11	32	8	5	46
2021-10	Rec	31	11	32	8	80	46
2021-09	Exp	31	13	32	8	78	46
2021-07	Exp	31	24	32	8	65	46
2021-04	Exp	24	41	32	8	4	46
2021-01	Exp	39	44	32	9	93	46
2020-11	Rec	42	64	32	9	92	42
2020-09	Rec	34	28	32	8	80	42
2020-06	Rec	32	11	32	7	91	42
2020-03	Rec	39	61	32	8	78	42
2019-12	Exp	33	31	32	7	79	36
2019-10	Exp	32	10	32	7	97	36
2019-09	Rec	35	27	32	7	99	36
2019-07	Rec	41	63	32	7	96	36
2019-04	Rec	39	57	32	7	89	36
2019-03	Exp	38	43	32	7	96	36
2019-01	Exp	36	30	32	7	98	36

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022