Monroe, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33740Compare

Risk Rank: #135 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Monroe's housing market shows average risk, ranking 135th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Monroe experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp76

YoY permit change

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp64

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-6.5%p42

Days on Market YoY

+7.1%p62

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+22.9%p100

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.6%p61

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+15.3%p76

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.12p21

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p10

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$13Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+15.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 31.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Monroe's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Richland Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while Morehouse Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Monroe, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Richland Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Morehouse Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Richland ParishRisk Driver	67	Elevated	8.9%	100	67	67
Union Parish	67	Elevated	9.3%	67	100	33
Ouachita Parish	58	Elevated	70.9%	33	0	100
Morehouse ParishStabilizer	8	Low Risk	11.0%	0	33	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	43	55	44	61	15	65
2025-10	Exp	50	87	44	61	28	65
2025-08	Exp	52	77	44	61	47	65
2025-06	Hyp	43	33	44	61	36	65
2025-05	Exp	41	18	44	61	40	65
2025-04	Rec	42	11	44	61	56	65
2025-02	Rec	59	78	44	68	83	65
2025-01	Hyp	56	72	44	68	67	65
2024-12	Rec	37	1	44	53	41	65
2024-11	Ress	38	1	44	53	48	65
2024-09	Hyp	44	3	44	60	77	65
2024-08	Rec	41	3	44	60	55	65
2024-06	Hyp	50	22	44	66	85	65
2024-04	Ress	48	20	44	66	78	65
2024-02	Ress	47	19	44	65	69	65
2023-12	Hyp	54	26	44	79	93	65
2023-10	Hyp	52	20	44	79	87	65
2023-07	Hyp	54	37	44	77	85	65
2023-05	Ress	56	49	44	78	83	65
2023-03	Ress	51	32	44	78	71	65
2023-02	Hyp	52	24	44	78	85	65
2023-01	Ress	52	14	44	78	91	65
2022-11	Ress	56	21	44	91	96	65
2022-10	Hyp	56	21	44	91	94	65
2022-09	Exp	51	3	44	88	88	65
2022-07	Exp	52	5	44	88	95	65
2022-04	Exp	51	1	44	87	91	65
2022-01	Exp	49	4	44	91	72	65
2021-12	Rec	49	3	44	82	76	70
2021-10	Rec	47	2	44	82	66	70
2021-09	Exp	49	1	44	85	77	70
2021-07	Exp	51	1	44	85	90	70
2021-05	Rec	52	5	44	90	84	70
2021-03	Rec	46	7	44	93	47	70
2021-02	Exp	46	7	44	93	48	70
2020-12	Exp	45	5	44	98	35	69
2020-10	Rec	47	4	44	98	48	69
2020-08	Rec	46	17	44	99	31	69
2020-05	Rec	48	11	44	99	46	69
2020-02	Rec	55	2	44	99	97	69
2019-11	Rec	54	2	44	99	95	67
2019-08	Rec	54	1	44	99	98	67
2019-05	Rec	54	5	44	99	94	67
2019-04	Exp	54	5	44	99	95	67
2019-02	Exp	54	12	44	100	83	67
2019-01	Exp	55	12	44	100	92	67

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022