Rankings/Modesto, CA

Modesto, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33700Compare

Risk Rank: #133 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Modesto's housing market shows average risk, ranking 133rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Modesto experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+22% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp73

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp65

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+22% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+22.4%p72

Days on Market YoY

+7.3%p62

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p74

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.5%p11

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+12.9%p73

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.91p19

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p65

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.4%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$4Kp51

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+12.9%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	42	23	63	67	38	51
2025-10	Hyp	43	28	63	67	35	51
2025-08	Hyp	40	19	63	67	25	51
2025-05	Hyp	37	20	63	67	8	51
2025-04	Ress	38	25	63	67	8	51
2025-02	Ress	42	47	63	70	6	51
2025-01	Hyp	42	42	63	70	11	51
2024-11	Ress	38	22	63	69	9	51
2024-09	Ress	46	36	63	71	40	51
2024-08	Hyp	48	39	63	71	50	51
2024-06	Ress	48	27	63	71	61	51
2024-04	Ress	49	28	63	71	70	51
2024-03	Hyp	49	38	63	72	55	51
2024-02	Exp	48	27	63	72	64	51
2023-12	Exp	44	25	63	50	61	51
2023-09	Exp	45	24	63	49	70	51
2023-08	Rec	42	20	63	49	55	51
2023-06	Rec	44	11	63	51	76	51
2023-03	Hyp	46	8	63	54	85	51
2023-02	Ress	44	7	63	54	74	51
2022-12	Ress	41	2	63	62	53	51
2022-11	Hyp	39	3	63	62	40	51
2022-09	Hyp	40	2	63	66	44	51
2022-08	Ress	41	3	63	66	50	51
2022-06	Ress	44	28	63	73	38	51
2022-04	Exp	48	41	63	73	47	51
2022-02	Exp	49	60	63	77	27	51
2022-01	Rec	48	63	63	77	23	51
2021-11	Rec	52	73	63	66	45	52
2021-10	Ress	51	74	63	66	38	52
2021-08	Ress	54	85	63	68	43	52
2021-07	Exp	52	84	63	68	28	52
2021-05	Exp	54	86	63	67	45	52
2021-04	Rec	58	87	63	67	64	52
2021-02	Rec	55	87	63	63	50	52
2021-01	Exp	56	86	63	63	57	52
2020-11	Exp	60	88	63	81	50	63
2020-09	Rec	58	76	63	80	55	63
2020-07	Rec	57	70	63	80	50	63
2020-06	Exp	52	58	63	79	32	63
2020-04	Exp	52	61	63	79	31	63
2020-03	Rec	49	52	63	79	22	63
2020-01	Rec	49	44	63	79	30	63
2019-12	Exp	46	27	63	79	26	70
2019-10	Exp	51	19	63	79	59	70
2019-09	Rec	48	24	63	80	38	70
2019-07	Rec	51	32	63	80	47	70
2019-04	Rec	54	41	63	79	58	70
2019-03	Ress	55	59	63	80	42	70
2019-01	Ress	58	62	63	80	60	70

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023