Mobile, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33660Compare

Risk Rank: #61 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Mobile's housing market shows average risk, ranking 61st of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Mobile experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp89

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp72

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.4%p50

Days on Market YoY

+2.7%p53

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p70

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.8%p64

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-32.8%p5

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.73p32

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p72

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.8%p89

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$43Kp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-32.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 15.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	68	19	96	68	91	81
2025-09	Rec	57	14	96	69	31	81
2025-07	Hyp	60	30	96	69	35	81
2025-05	Ress	67	88	96	76	9	81
2025-03	Ress	58	36	96	67	18	81
2025-02	Hyp	60	42	96	67	21	81
2024-12	Hyp	66	83	96	73	14	81
2024-09	Hyp	64	34	96	69	54	81
2024-07	Ress	61	23	96	69	45	81
2024-05	Ress	66	39	96	69	64	81
2024-04	Hyp	72	54	96	69	82	81
2024-03	Ress	65	22	96	68	75	81
2024-01	Ress	62	8	96	68	72	81
2023-11	Hyp	70	34	96	75	86	81
2023-09	Hyp	74	66	96	77	74	81
2023-08	Exp	75	68	96	77	77	81
2023-07	Rec	76	69	96	77	84	81
2023-05	Rec	70	40	96	74	82	81
2023-04	Ress	68	41	96	74	68	81
2023-02	Ress	77	77	96	79	80	81
2023-01	Hyp	76	66	96	79	83	81
2022-12	Exp	68	34	96	69	80	81
2022-11	Ress	69	37	96	70	83	81
2022-10	Rec	68	37	96	70	76	81
2022-08	Rec	68	31	96	69	80	81
2022-07	Ress	69	36	96	69	84	81
2022-05	Hyp	69	40	96	69	78	81
2022-04	Exp	70	44	96	69	83	81
2022-02	Rec	70	55	96	73	69	81
2021-12	Rec	70	50	96	76	75	78
2021-11	Exp	72	57	96	76	80	78
2021-09	Exp	71	59	96	75	69	78
2021-06	Exp	67	38	96	75	68	78
2021-04	Rec	72	45	96	75	88	78
2021-02	Rec	70	83	96	79	36	78
2021-01	Exp	70	81	96	79	35	78
2020-11	Exp	60	33	96	62	38	84
2020-10	Rec	56	28	96	62	20	84
2020-08	Rec	70	88	96	64	38	84
2020-05	Rec	65	71	96	63	26	84
2020-02	Exp	72	70	96	62	74	84
2019-12	Exp	78	94	96	64	81	82
2019-11	Rec	78	93	96	64	82	82
2019-09	Rec	68	57	96	60	68	82
2019-06	Exp	76	90	96	63	75	82
2019-04	Exp	74	69	96	63	87	82
2019-01	Exp	60	12	96	60	65	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023