Mobile, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33660Compare

Risk Rank: #70 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -13

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Mobile's housing market shows average risk, ranking 70th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Mobile experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-5% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp72

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump68

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-5% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-5.5%p42

Days on Market YoY

+11.1%p69

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.0%p78

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+1.9%p68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-12.4%p29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.97p35

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p72

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$43Kp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-12.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 15.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	50	40	26	72	45	82
2025-11	Rec	68	19	96	68	91	81
2025-08	Rec	58	21	96	68	31	81
2025-07	Hyp	60	30	96	69	35	81
2025-05	Ress	67	88	96	76	9	81
2025-03	Ress	58	36	96	67	18	81
2025-02	Hyp	60	42	96	67	21	81
2024-12	Hyp	66	83	96	73	14	81
2024-09	Hyp	64	34	96	69	54	81
2024-07	Ress	61	23	96	69	45	81
2024-05	Ress	66	39	96	69	64	81
2024-04	Hyp	72	54	96	69	82	81
2024-03	Ress	65	22	96	68	75	81
2024-01	Ress	62	8	96	68	72	81
2023-11	Hyp	70	34	96	75	86	81
2023-09	Hyp	74	66	96	77	74	81
2023-08	Exp	75	68	96	77	77	81
2023-07	Rec	76	69	96	77	84	81
2023-05	Rec	70	40	96	74	82	81
2023-04	Ress	68	41	96	74	68	81
2023-02	Ress	77	77	96	79	80	81
2023-01	Hyp	76	66	96	79	83	81
2022-12	Exp	68	34	96	69	80	81
2022-11	Ress	69	37	96	70	83	81
2022-10	Rec	68	37	96	70	76	81
2022-08	Rec	68	31	96	69	80	81
2022-07	Ress	69	36	96	69	84	81
2022-05	Hyp	69	40	96	69	78	81
2022-04	Exp	70	44	96	69	83	81
2022-02	Rec	70	55	96	73	69	81
2021-12	Rec	70	50	96	76	75	78
2021-11	Exp	72	57	96	76	80	78
2021-09	Exp	71	59	96	75	69	78
2021-06	Exp	67	38	96	75	68	78
2021-04	Rec	72	45	96	75	88	78
2021-02	Rec	70	83	96	79	36	78
2021-01	Exp	70	81	96	79	35	78
2020-11	Exp	60	33	96	62	38	84
2020-10	Rec	56	28	96	62	20	84
2020-08	Rec	70	88	96	64	38	84
2020-05	Rec	65	71	96	63	26	84
2020-02	Exp	72	70	96	62	74	84
2019-12	Exp	78	94	96	64	81	82
2019-11	Rec	78	93	96	64	82	82
2019-09	Rec	68	57	96	60	68	82
2019-06	Exp	76	90	96	63	75	82
2019-04	Exp	74	69	96	63	87	82
2019-01	Exp	60	12	96	60	65	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023