Rankings/Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33460Compare

Risk Rank: #218 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -3

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Minneapolis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 218th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Minneapolis experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap47

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp43

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+12.6%p62

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.4%p89

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.0%p35

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-4.0%p43

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.83p47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.5%p14

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$826Kp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.0%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 22.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Minneapolis's 15 counties show moderate divergence — Washington County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Anoka County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.5

15 of 15 counties scored

Minneapolis, MN-WI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Washington County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Anoka County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Carver County<5%	78	High Risk	3.0%	71	79	64
Pierce County<5%	77	High Risk	1.1%	93	100	29
Washington CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	7.4%	7	93	86
Scott County<5%	57	Elevated	4.2%	36	71	57
Hennepin County	54	Average	34.2%	64	29	100
St. Croix County<5%	54	Average	2.6%	86	57	21
Isanti County<5%	52	Average	1.1%	50	86	0
Le Sueur County<5%	50	Average	0.8%	79	64	43
Dakota County	44	Below Average	12.0%	0	50	71
Ramsey County	39	Below Average	14.6%	57	7	93
Anoka CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	10.0%	43	21	79
Wright County<5%	36	Below Average	4.0%	14	36	14
Mille Lacs County<5%	36	Below Average	0.7%	100	0	7
Chisago County<5%	34	Below Average	1.6%	29	14	50
Sherburne County<5%	32	Below Average	2.7%	21	43	36

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	43	33	32	8	42	100
2025-11	Exp	42	50	12	9	39	96
2025-09	Rec	41	49	12	9	36	96
2025-07	Rec	45	46	12	9	60	96
2025-06	Exp	44	47	12	9	53	96
2025-04	Exp	44	39	12	9	62	96
2025-01	Rec	43	41	12	8	57	96
2024-11	Rec	42	37	12	9	53	96
2024-10	Hyp	41	36	12	9	47	96
2024-08	Hyp	42	25	12	9	67	96
2024-07	Rec	42	21	12	9	69	96
2024-05	Hyp	42	19	12	10	68	96
2024-03	Hyp	40	11	12	10	66	96
2024-01	Exp	43	22	12	10	72	96
2023-11	Exp	41	24	12	8	58	96
2023-08	Rec	44	31	12	9	70	96
2023-06	Rec	44	34	12	13	63	96
2023-03	Ress	40	15	12	13	60	96
2023-01	Hyp	42	16	12	13	72	96
2022-12	Exp	44	11	12	13	84	96
2022-10	Rec	42	7	12	13	81	96
2022-08	Rec	42	5	12	13	78	96
2022-07	Exp	41	4	12	13	75	96
2022-05	Exp	43	13	12	17	72	96
2022-03	Rec	43	13	12	18	75	96
2022-01	Rec	42	15	12	18	64	96
2021-12	Exp	36	16	12	14	30	97
2021-10	Exp	42	16	12	14	65	97
2021-07	Exp	40	26	12	15	47	97
2021-04	Exp	43	31	12	15	56	97
2021-03	Rec	46	29	12	15	76	97
2021-01	Rec	46	31	12	15	75	97
2020-12	Exp	48	39	12	13	85	97
2020-10	Exp	47	36	12	13	77	97
2020-09	Rec	48	42	12	13	79	97
2020-07	Rec	47	36	12	13	80	97
2020-04	Rec	43	26	12	13	64	97
2020-03	Exp	42	28	12	14	54	97
2020-01	Exp	44	38	12	14	59	97
2019-12	Rec	46	40	12	13	66	96
2019-10	Rec	45	43	12	13	62	96
2019-07	Rec	44	37	12	14	61	96
2019-06	Ress	43	37	12	14	53	96
2019-04	Ress	44	38	12	14	57	96
2019-03	Hyp	46	39	12	14	69	96
2019-02	Rec	48	48	12	14	75	96
2019-01	Hyp	50	53	12	14	77	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023