Rankings/Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33460Compare

Risk Rank: #179 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +2

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Minneapolis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 179th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Minneapolis experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap48

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump44

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.1%p57

Days on Market YoY

-1.7%p44

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p85

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.7%p44

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-8.7%p36

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.74p48

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.6%p38

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$826Kp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-8.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 22.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Minneapolis's 15 counties show moderate divergence — Dakota County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Ramsey County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.1

15 of 15 counties scored

Minneapolis, MN-WI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Dakota County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Ramsey County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Wright County<5%	72	Elevated	4.0%	71	86	29
Chisago County<5%	64	Elevated	1.6%	29	93	50
Dakota CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	12.0%	43	64	79
Washington County	60	Elevated	7.4%	64	21	86
St. Croix County<5%	55	Average	2.6%	100	71	14
Anoka County	54	Average	10.0%	50	79	71
Carver County<5%	50	Average	3.0%	14	29	64
Sherburne County<5%	48	Average	2.7%	79	50	36
Hennepin County	48	Average	34.2%	36	36	100
Le Sueur County<5%	45	Below Average	0.8%	93	43	43
Mille Lacs County<5%	45	Below Average	0.7%	0	100	0
Scott County<5%	43	Below Average	4.2%	7	57	57
Pierce County<5%	36	Below Average	1.1%	57	7	21
Isanti County<5%	34	Below Average	1.1%	86	0	7
Ramsey CountyStabilizer	34	Below Average	14.6%	21	14	93

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	42	50	12	9	39	96
2025-09	Rec	41	49	12	9	36	96
2025-07	Rec	45	46	12	9	60	96
2025-06	Exp	44	47	12	9	53	96
2025-04	Exp	44	39	12	9	62	96
2025-01	Rec	43	41	12	8	57	96
2024-11	Rec	42	37	12	9	53	96
2024-10	Hyp	41	36	12	9	47	96
2024-08	Hyp	42	25	12	9	67	96
2024-07	Rec	42	21	12	9	69	96
2024-05	Hyp	42	19	12	10	68	96
2024-03	Hyp	40	11	12	10	66	96
2024-01	Exp	43	22	12	10	72	96
2023-11	Exp	41	24	12	8	58	96
2023-08	Rec	44	31	12	9	70	96
2023-06	Rec	44	34	12	13	63	96
2023-03	Ress	40	15	12	13	60	96
2023-01	Hyp	42	16	12	13	72	96
2022-12	Exp	44	11	12	13	84	96
2022-10	Rec	42	7	12	13	81	96
2022-08	Rec	42	5	12	13	78	96
2022-07	Exp	41	4	12	13	75	96
2022-05	Exp	43	13	12	17	72	96
2022-03	Rec	43	13	12	18	75	96
2022-01	Rec	42	15	12	18	64	96
2021-12	Exp	36	16	12	14	30	97
2021-10	Exp	42	16	12	14	65	97
2021-07	Exp	40	26	12	15	47	97
2021-04	Exp	43	31	12	15	56	97
2021-03	Rec	46	29	12	15	76	97
2021-01	Rec	46	31	12	15	75	97
2020-12	Exp	48	39	12	13	85	97
2020-10	Exp	47	36	12	13	77	97
2020-09	Rec	48	42	12	13	79	97
2020-07	Rec	47	36	12	13	80	97
2020-04	Rec	43	26	12	13	64	97
2020-03	Exp	42	28	12	14	54	97
2020-01	Exp	44	38	12	14	59	97
2019-12	Rec	46	40	12	13	66	96
2019-10	Rec	45	43	12	13	62	96
2019-07	Rec	44	37	12	14	61	96
2019-06	Ress	43	37	12	14	53	96
2019-04	Ress	44	38	12	14	57	96
2019-03	Hyp	46	39	12	14	69	96
2019-02	Rec	48	48	12	14	75	96
2019-01	Hyp	50	53	12	14	77	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023