Rankings/Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33460Compare

Risk Rank: #199 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +1

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Minneapolis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 199th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Minneapolis experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023.

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +0% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump48

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap48

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +0% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+32.9%p82

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p80

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.2%p48

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-5.8%p37

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.85p48

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$826Kp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-5.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 22.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Minneapolis's 15 counties show moderate divergence — Washington County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Anoka County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.5

15 of 15 counties scored

Minneapolis, MN-WI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Washington County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Anoka County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Carver County<5%	78	High Risk	3.0%	71	79	64
Pierce County<5%	77	High Risk	1.1%	93	100	29
Washington CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	7.4%	7	93	86
Scott County<5%	57	Elevated	4.2%	36	71	57
Hennepin County	54	Average	34.2%	64	29	100
St. Croix County<5%	54	Average	2.6%	86	57	21
Isanti County<5%	52	Average	1.1%	50	86	0
Le Sueur County<5%	50	Average	0.8%	79	64	43
Dakota County	44	Below Average	12.0%	0	50	71
Ramsey County	39	Below Average	14.6%	57	7	93
Anoka CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	10.0%	43	21	79
Wright County<5%	36	Below Average	4.0%	14	36	14
Mille Lacs County<5%	36	Below Average	0.7%	100	0	7
Chisago County<5%	34	Below Average	1.6%	29	14	50
Sherburne County<5%	32	Below Average	2.7%	21	43	36

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	41	35	43	8	14	100
2025-12	Exp	46	44	36	8	38	100
2025-09	Rec	41	49	12	9	36	96
2025-07	Rec	45	46	12	9	60	96
2025-06	Exp	44	47	12	9	53	96
2025-04	Exp	44	39	12	9	62	96
2025-01	Rec	43	41	12	8	57	96
2024-11	Rec	42	37	12	9	53	96
2024-10	Hyp	41	36	12	9	47	96
2024-08	Hyp	42	25	12	9	67	96
2024-07	Rec	42	21	12	9	69	96
2024-05	Hyp	42	19	12	10	68	96
2024-03	Hyp	40	11	12	10	66	96
2024-01	Exp	43	22	12	10	72	96
2023-11	Exp	41	24	12	8	58	96
2023-08	Rec	44	31	12	9	70	96
2023-06	Rec	44	34	12	13	63	96
2023-03	Ress	40	15	12	13	60	96
2023-01	Hyp	42	16	12	13	72	96
2022-12	Exp	44	11	12	13	84	96
2022-10	Rec	42	7	12	13	81	96
2022-08	Rec	42	5	12	13	78	96
2022-07	Exp	41	4	12	13	75	96
2022-05	Exp	43	13	12	17	72	96
2022-03	Rec	43	13	12	18	75	96
2022-01	Rec	42	15	12	18	64	96
2021-12	Exp	36	16	12	14	30	97
2021-10	Exp	42	16	12	14	65	97
2021-07	Exp	40	26	12	15	47	97
2021-04	Exp	43	31	12	15	56	97
2021-03	Rec	46	29	12	15	76	97
2021-01	Rec	46	31	12	15	75	97
2020-12	Exp	48	39	12	13	85	97
2020-10	Exp	47	36	12	13	77	97
2020-09	Rec	48	42	12	13	79	97
2020-07	Rec	47	36	12	13	80	97
2020-04	Rec	43	26	12	13	64	97
2020-03	Exp	42	28	12	14	54	97
2020-01	Exp	44	38	12	14	59	97
2019-12	Rec	46	40	12	13	66	96
2019-10	Rec	45	43	12	13	62	96
2019-07	Rec	44	37	12	14	61	96
2019-06	Ress	43	37	12	14	53	96
2019-04	Ress	44	38	12	14	57	96
2019-03	Hyp	46	39	12	14	69	96
2019-02	Rec	48	48	12	14	75	96
2019-01	Hyp	50	53	12	14	77	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023