Rankings/Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33460Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Minneapolis experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 3 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Minneapolis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p97 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p52 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p49 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.1%p57

Days on Market YoY

-1.7%p44

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.9%p87

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum52

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth36

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita49

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability9

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment37

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration97

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.5%	p52
Permit Growth	-8.7%	p36
Permits/1K Pop	3.74	p49
Affordability	0.22	p9
Employment	+0.6%	p37
Net AGI Migration	-$1M	p97

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-8.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+8.1%

Days on Market YoY-1.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 14 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Minneapolis's 15 counties show moderate divergence — Anoka County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Pierce County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.8

15 of 15 counties scored

Minneapolis, MN-WI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Anoka County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Pierce County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Anoka CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	6.7%	50	79	71
St. Croix County	62	Elevated	6.7%	100	71	14
Dakota County	62	Elevated	6.7%	43	64	79
Wright County	62	Elevated	6.7%	71	86	29
Le Sueur County	60	Elevated	6.7%	93	43	43
Chisago County	57	Elevated	6.7%	29	93	50
Washington County	57	Elevated	6.7%	64	21	86
Hennepin County	57	Elevated	6.7%	36	36	100
Sherburne County	55	Average	6.7%	79	50	36
Ramsey County	43	Below Average	6.7%	21	14	93
Scott County	40	Below Average	6.7%	7	57	57
Carver County	36	Below Average	6.7%	14	29	64
Mille Lacs County	33	Below Average	6.7%	0	100	0
Isanti County	31	Below Average	6.7%	86	0	7
Pierce CountyStabilizer	28	Below Average	6.7%	57	7	21

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	42	50	12	9	39	96
2025-09	Rec	41	49	12	9	36	96
2025-07	Rec	45	46	12	9	60	96
2025-06	Exp	44	47	12	9	53	96
2025-04	Exp	44	39	12	9	62	96
2025-01	Rec	43	41	12	8	57	96
2024-11	Rec	42	37	12	9	53	96
2024-10	Hyp	41	36	12	9	47	96
2024-08	Hyp	42	25	12	9	67	96
2024-07	Rec	42	21	12	9	69	96
2024-05	Hyp	42	19	12	10	68	96
2024-03	Hyp	40	11	12	10	66	96
2024-01	Exp	43	22	12	10	72	96
2023-11	Exp	41	24	12	8	58	96
2023-08	Rec	44	31	12	9	70	96
2023-06	Rec	44	34	12	13	63	96
2023-03	Ress	40	15	12	13	60	96
2023-01	Hyp	42	16	12	13	72	96
2022-12	Exp	44	11	12	13	84	96
2022-10	Rec	42	7	12	13	81	96
2022-08	Rec	42	5	12	13	78	96
2022-07	Exp	41	4	12	13	75	96
2022-05	Exp	43	13	12	17	72	96
2022-03	Rec	43	13	12	18	75	96
2022-01	Rec	42	15	12	18	64	96
2021-12	Exp	36	16	12	14	30	97
2021-10	Exp	42	16	12	14	65	97
2021-07	Exp	40	26	12	15	47	97
2021-04	Exp	43	31	12	15	56	97
2021-03	Rec	46	29	12	15	76	97
2021-01	Rec	46	31	12	15	75	97
2020-12	Exp	48	39	12	13	85	97
2020-10	Exp	47	36	12	13	77	97
2020-09	Rec	48	42	12	13	79	97
2020-07	Rec	47	36	12	13	80	97
2020-04	Rec	43	26	12	13	64	97
2020-03	Exp	42	28	12	14	54	97
2020-01	Exp	44	38	12	14	59	97
2019-12	Rec	46	40	12	13	66	96
2019-10	Rec	45	43	12	13	62	96
2019-07	Rec	44	37	12	14	61	96
2019-06	Ress	43	37	12	14	53	96
2019-04	Ress	44	38	12	14	57	96
2019-03	Hyp	46	39	12	14	69	96
2019-02	Rec	48	48	12	14	75	96
2019-01	Hyp	50	53	12	14	77	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022