Rankings/Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI

Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33340Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -7

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Milwaukee experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Milwaukee's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p94 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p91 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p80 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+2.3%p51

Days on Market YoY

+11.1%p69

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p66

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum80

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth30

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita20

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability30

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.2%	p80
Permit Growth	-13.2%	p30
Permits/1K Pop	2.01	p20
Affordability	0.25	p30
Employment	-0.9%	p91
Net AGI Migration	-$387K	p94

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+2.3%

Days on Market YoY+11.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 18 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Milwaukee's counties diverge significantly — Ozaukee County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Milwaukee County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Milwaukee, WI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Ozaukee County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Milwaukee County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Ozaukee CountyRisk Driver	89	High Risk	25.0%	100	100	67
Waukesha County	56	Elevated	25.0%	0	67	100
Washington County	33	Below Average	25.0%	67	33	0
Milwaukee CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	25.0%	33	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	70	83	86	28	96	94
2025-09	Rec	70	86	86	28	92	94
2025-08	Exp	70	85	86	28	94	94
2025-06	Exp	70	89	86	29	88	94
2025-04	Rec	68	87	86	29	84	94
2025-02	Rec	66	81	86	27	75	94
2024-12	Exp	65	70	86	25	85	94
2024-10	Exp	64	74	86	25	76	94
2024-09	Rec	65	76	86	25	79	94
2024-07	Rec	63	65	86	25	76	94
2024-06	Ress	63	64	86	24	78	94
2024-05	Exp	64	68	86	24	83	94
2024-04	Rec	64	68	86	24	84	94
2024-02	Rec	66	77	86	23	88	94
2024-01	Exp	66	79	86	23	85	94
2023-11	Exp	65	83	86	17	79	94
2023-08	Exp	67	89	86	19	85	94
2023-06	Rec	65	76	86	18	83	94
2023-04	Rec	63	69	86	18	79	94
2023-02	Exp	60	59	86	17	76	94
2022-12	Exp	58	49	86	21	68	94
2022-10	Rec	59	46	86	21	77	94
2022-08	Rec	58	44	86	22	73	94
2022-05	Rec	58	31	86	22	86	94
2022-03	Exp	52	13	86	21	70	94
2022-01	Exp	55	17	86	21	83	94
2021-11	Rec	54	14	86	16	82	94
2021-09	Rec	55	22	86	18	81	94
2021-08	Exp	56	22	86	18	84	94
2021-06	Exp	55	27	86	18	74	94
2021-03	Rec	53	20	86	18	70	94
2021-01	Rec	52	22	86	18	65	94
2020-10	Exp	54	31	86	15	68	95
2020-08	Exp	53	29	86	16	61	95
2020-06	Rec	54	27	86	16	68	95
2020-04	Rec	52	26	86	16	59	95
2020-03	Exp	55	27	86	16	78	95
2020-01	Exp	58	38	86	16	83	95
2019-10	Rec	57	33	86	16	84	94
2019-08	Rec	58	40	86	16	84	94
2019-07	Exp	58	42	86	16	82	94
2019-05	Exp	59	44	86	16	82	94
2019-02	Exp	61	49	86	16	89	94
2019-01	Exp	61	51	86	16	87	94

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022