Rankings/Midland, TX

Midland, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33260Compare

Risk Rank: #133 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -16

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Midland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 133rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Midland experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+29% YoY) and days on market are up -2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap77

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp77

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+29% YoY) and days on market are up -2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+29.2%p78

Days on Market YoY

-1.6%p45

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p54

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.9%p32

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-9.2%p35

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.06p77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p77

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p11

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$15Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-9.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorMining & Extraction 38.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	63	26	95	75	21	78
2025-10	Rec	67	36	95	75	33	78
2025-09	Hyp	67	46	95	75	27	78
2025-07	Hyp	68	72	95	75	5	78
2025-04	Hyp	66	33	95	78	26	78
2025-03	Exp	73	67	95	79	38	78
2025-01	Rec	74	82	95	79	26	78
2024-11	Rec	62	31	95	75	11	78
2024-08	Ress	57	10	95	70	5	78
2024-06	Hyp	69	76	95	77	4	78
2024-05	Exp	68	70	95	77	3	78
2024-03	Exp	62	41	95	73	2	78
2023-12	Exp	68	88	95	60	4	78
2023-09	Rec	60	49	95	55	0	78
2023-07	Rec	57	32	95	55	0	78
2023-04	Rec	58	33	95	57	0	78
2023-01	Rec	54	13	95	53	0	78
2022-12	Exp	57	4	95	82	0	78
2022-10	Exp	56	1	95	82	0	78
2022-07	Exp	57	3	95	83	0	78
2022-04	Exp	57	0	95	83	1	78
2022-03	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2022-01	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2021-11	Exp	57	0	95	75	1	87
2021-09	Exp	57	0	95	76	1	87
2021-06	Rec	59	1	95	82	5	87
2021-04	Rec	74	0	95	82	99	87
2021-03	Hyp	75	0	95	88	99	87
2021-02	Ress	75	0	95	88	99	87
2020-12	Ress	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-11	Hyp	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-09	Hyp	76	1	95	83	99	93
2020-06	Hyp	76	3	95	87	99	93
2020-05	Ress	75	3	95	87	92	93
2020-03	Ress	70	3	95	87	60	93
2020-02	Hyp	72	4	95	87	73	93
2019-12	Hyp	83	59	95	89	91	82
2019-11	Ress	82	79	95	89	68	82
2019-09	Ress	76	92	95	89	18	82
2019-06	Ress	74	96	95	89	0	82
2019-05	Hyp	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-04	Ress	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-02	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82
2019-01	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023