Rankings/Midland, TX

Midland, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33260Compare

Risk Rank: #150 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -17

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Midland experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Midland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 150th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p79 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p78 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p75 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+29% YoY) and days on market are up -2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+29.2%p78

Days on Market YoY

-1.6%p45

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.1%p79

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum16

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth35

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita78

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability75

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment10

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration79

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.2%	p16
Permit Growth	-9.2%	p35
Permits/1K Pop	7.06	p78
Affordability	0.31	p75
Employment	+1.4%	p10
Net AGI Migration	-$52K	p79

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-9.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+29.2%

Days on Market YoY-1.6%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 9 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	63	26	95	75	21	78
2025-10	Rec	67	36	95	75	33	78
2025-09	Hyp	67	46	95	75	27	78
2025-07	Hyp	68	72	95	75	5	78
2025-04	Hyp	66	33	95	78	26	78
2025-03	Exp	73	67	95	79	38	78
2025-01	Rec	74	82	95	79	26	78
2024-11	Rec	62	31	95	75	11	78
2024-08	Ress	57	10	95	70	5	78
2024-06	Hyp	69	76	95	77	4	78
2024-05	Exp	68	70	95	77	3	78
2024-03	Exp	62	41	95	73	2	78
2023-12	Exp	68	88	95	60	4	78
2023-09	Rec	60	49	95	55	0	78
2023-07	Rec	57	32	95	55	0	78
2023-04	Rec	58	33	95	57	0	78
2023-01	Rec	54	13	95	53	0	78
2022-12	Exp	57	4	95	82	0	78
2022-10	Exp	56	1	95	82	0	78
2022-07	Exp	57	3	95	83	0	78
2022-04	Exp	57	0	95	83	1	78
2022-03	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2022-01	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2021-11	Exp	57	0	95	75	1	87
2021-09	Exp	57	0	95	76	1	87
2021-06	Rec	59	1	95	82	5	87
2021-04	Rec	74	0	95	82	99	87
2021-03	Hyp	75	0	95	88	99	87
2021-02	Ress	75	0	95	88	99	87
2020-12	Ress	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-11	Hyp	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-09	Hyp	76	1	95	83	99	93
2020-06	Hyp	76	3	95	87	99	93
2020-05	Ress	75	3	95	87	92	93
2020-03	Ress	70	3	95	87	60	93
2020-02	Hyp	72	4	95	87	73	93
2019-12	Hyp	83	59	95	89	91	82
2019-11	Ress	82	79	95	89	68	82
2019-09	Ress	76	92	95	89	18	82
2019-06	Ress	74	96	95	89	0	82
2019-05	Hyp	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-04	Ress	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-02	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82
2019-01	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022