Rankings/Midland, TX

Midland, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 33260Compare

Risk Rank: #26 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -8

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Midland's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 26th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Midland experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-7.3% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump98

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp82

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +5% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+10.0%p59

Days on Market YoY

+5.0%p58

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-7.3%p3

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.6%p98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-36.0%p5

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.37p63

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p82

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

-0.2%p60

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$15Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-36.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorMining & Extraction 38.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	50	32	35	77	11	67
2025-10	Rec	67	36	95	75	33	78
2025-09	Hyp	67	46	95	75	27	78
2025-07	Hyp	68	72	95	75	5	78
2025-04	Hyp	66	33	95	78	26	78
2025-03	Exp	73	67	95	79	38	78
2025-01	Rec	74	82	95	79	26	78
2024-11	Rec	62	31	95	75	11	78
2024-08	Ress	57	10	95	70	5	78
2024-06	Hyp	69	76	95	77	4	78
2024-05	Exp	68	70	95	77	3	78
2024-03	Exp	62	41	95	73	2	78
2023-12	Exp	68	88	95	60	4	78
2023-09	Rec	60	49	95	55	0	78
2023-07	Rec	57	32	95	55	0	78
2023-04	Rec	58	33	95	57	0	78
2023-01	Rec	54	13	95	53	0	78
2022-12	Exp	57	4	95	82	0	78
2022-10	Exp	56	1	95	82	0	78
2022-07	Exp	57	3	95	83	0	78
2022-04	Exp	57	0	95	83	1	78
2022-03	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2022-01	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2021-11	Exp	57	0	95	75	1	87
2021-09	Exp	57	0	95	76	1	87
2021-06	Rec	59	1	95	82	5	87
2021-04	Rec	74	0	95	82	99	87
2021-03	Hyp	75	0	95	88	99	87
2021-02	Ress	75	0	95	88	99	87
2020-12	Ress	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-11	Hyp	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-09	Hyp	76	1	95	83	99	93
2020-06	Hyp	76	3	95	87	99	93
2020-05	Ress	75	3	95	87	92	93
2020-03	Ress	70	3	95	87	60	93
2020-02	Hyp	72	4	95	87	73	93
2019-12	Hyp	83	59	95	89	91	82
2019-11	Ress	82	79	95	89	68	82
2019-09	Ress	76	92	95	89	18	82
2019-06	Ress	74	96	95	89	0	82
2019-05	Hyp	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-04	Ress	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-02	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82
2019-01	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023