Rankings/Midland, TX

Midland, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33260Compare

Risk Rank: #92 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -17

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Midland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 92nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Stretched valuations add further pressure.

Midland experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Prices have significantly outpaced rents (-8.7% divergence), suggesting stretched valuations that may be unsustainable.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump100

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp82

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.8%p61

Days on Market YoY

+9.3%p66

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Extreme↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-8.7%p2

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.6%p100

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-42.6%p1

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

5.07p60

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p82

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.6%p11

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$15Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-42.6%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorMining & Extraction 38.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	62	98	5	82	60	67
2025-12	Hyp	50	32	35	77	11	67
2025-10	Rec	67	36	95	75	33	78
2025-09	Hyp	67	46	95	75	27	78
2025-07	Hyp	68	72	95	75	5	78
2025-04	Hyp	66	33	95	78	26	78
2025-03	Exp	73	67	95	79	38	78
2025-01	Rec	74	82	95	79	26	78
2024-11	Rec	62	31	95	75	11	78
2024-08	Ress	57	10	95	70	5	78
2024-06	Hyp	69	76	95	77	4	78
2024-05	Exp	68	70	95	77	3	78
2024-03	Exp	62	41	95	73	2	78
2023-12	Exp	68	88	95	60	4	78
2023-09	Rec	60	49	95	55	0	78
2023-07	Rec	57	32	95	55	0	78
2023-04	Rec	58	33	95	57	0	78
2023-01	Rec	54	13	95	53	0	78
2022-12	Exp	57	4	95	82	0	78
2022-10	Exp	56	1	95	82	0	78
2022-07	Exp	57	3	95	83	0	78
2022-04	Exp	57	0	95	83	1	78
2022-03	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2022-01	Rec	57	0	95	86	1	78
2021-11	Exp	57	0	95	75	1	87
2021-09	Exp	57	0	95	76	1	87
2021-06	Rec	59	1	95	82	5	87
2021-04	Rec	74	0	95	82	99	87
2021-03	Hyp	75	0	95	88	99	87
2021-02	Ress	75	0	95	88	99	87
2020-12	Ress	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-11	Hyp	74	0	95	78	99	93
2020-09	Hyp	76	1	95	83	99	93
2020-06	Hyp	76	3	95	87	99	93
2020-05	Ress	75	3	95	87	92	93
2020-03	Ress	70	3	95	87	60	93
2020-02	Hyp	72	4	95	87	73	93
2019-12	Hyp	83	59	95	89	91	82
2019-11	Ress	82	79	95	89	68	82
2019-09	Ress	76	92	95	89	18	82
2019-06	Ress	74	96	95	89	0	82
2019-05	Hyp	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-04	Ress	74	97	95	89	0	82
2019-02	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82
2019-01	Ress	74	99	95	89	0	82

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023