Rankings/Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 33100Compare

Risk Rank: #131 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Miami experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Miami's housing market shows average risk, ranking 131st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p100 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p87 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Employment

p50 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+5.1%p54

Days on Market YoY

+8.9%p65

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p64

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum23

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth87

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita45

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability100

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment50

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration0

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.7%	p23
Permit Growth	+30.1%	p87
Permits/1K Pop	3.46	p45
Affordability	0.43	p100
Employment	+0.3%	p50
Net AGI Migration	+$8M	p0

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+30.1%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+5.1%

Days on Market YoY+8.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Miami's counties diverge significantly — Miami-Dade County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Broward County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Miami, FL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Miami-Dade County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Broward County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Miami-Dade CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	100
Palm Beach County	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	50	50
Broward CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	50	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ
2025-11	Rec	34	18	13	100	40
2025-09	Hyp	35	17	13	100	49
2025-07	Hyp	34	22	13	100	36
2025-04	Hyp	38	41	13	100	41
2025-01	Hyp	36	25	13	100	49
2024-10	Hyp	44	63	13	100	53
2024-08	Ress	39	67	13	100	20
2024-06	Ress	43	87	13	100	27
2024-03	Ress	43	96	13	100	19
2024-01	Hyp	42	90	13	100	14
2023-11	Exp	40	78	13	99	17
2023-09	Rec	38	64	13	99	22
2023-07	Rec	38	72	13	99	14
2023-06	Hyp	38	68	13	99	18
2023-04	Hyp	40	84	13	99	15
2023-03	Ress	42	94	13	99	13
2023-01	Ress	42	96	13	99	13
2022-10	Hyp	42	99	13	99	8
2022-09	Exp	42	97	13	99	10
2022-07	Exp	42	98	13	99	10
2022-04	Exp	41	92	13	99	10
2022-02	Rec	41	86	13	99	17
2021-12	Rec	40	82	13	99	17
2021-10	Exp	39	80	13	99	10
2021-08	Exp	37	70	13	98	8
2021-06	Rec	43	67	13	98	47
2021-04	Rec	40	65	13	98	30
2021-01	Rec	45	60	13	98	67
2020-10	Rec	46	57	13	100	76
2020-07	Exp	46	59	13	100	70
2020-05	Exp	47	74	13	100	65
2020-02	Rec	41	67	13	100	35
2019-12	Rec	38	53	13	99	31
2019-09	Rec	37	37	13	99	43
2019-06	Rec	37	49	13	99	30
2019-03	Exp	39	56	13	99	35
2019-01	Exp	38	48	13	99	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022