Rankings/Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 32820Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -14

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Memphis experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Memphis's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p92 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p59 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p30 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +7% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.7%p62

Days on Market YoY

+6.8%p62

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p87

Months in status35

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum12

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth16

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.2%	p12
Permit Growth	-21.3%	p16
Permits/1K Pop	2.47	p30
Affordability	0.24	p21
Employment	+0.1%	p59
Net AGI Migration	-$265K	p92

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-21.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+12.7%

Days on Market YoY+6.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Memphis's 7 counties show moderate divergence — Marshall County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Fayette County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.6

7 of 9 counties scored

Memphis, TN-MS-AR shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Marshall County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Fayette County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
DeSoto County	67	Elevated	14.3%	50	67	83
Marshall CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	14.3%	100	83	17
Crittenden County	56	Elevated	14.3%	0	100	67
Shelby County	55	Average	14.3%	33	33	100
Tipton County	50	Average	14.3%	67	50	33
Benton CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Tunica CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Tate County	33	Below Average	14.3%	83	17	0
Fayette CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	14.3%	17	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	49	15	54	19	76	92
2025-09	Rec	44	15	54	19	42	92
2025-07	Hyp	48	8	54	19	77	92
2025-05	Ress	52	28	54	23	79	92
2025-03	Ress	55	27	54	24	96	92
2025-02	Hyp	56	27	54	24	97	92
2025-01	Rec	56	26	54	24	98	92
2024-12	Hyp	52	9	54	22	93	92
2024-10	Hyp	50	11	54	22	79	92
2024-07	Ress	52	18	54	24	83	92
2024-05	Ress	50	15	54	26	77	92
2024-02	Ress	50	8	54	27	81	92
2024-01	Hyp	51	9	54	27	83	92
2023-12	Rec	52	6	54	31	88	92
2023-11	Ress	51	7	54	31	85	92
2023-09	Ress	54	15	54	33	93	92
2023-08	Hyp	56	23	54	33	96	92
2023-06	Hyp	60	40	54	37	98	92
2023-03	Hyp	63	61	54	42	89	92
2023-02	Ress	63	56	54	42	94	92
2022-12	Ress	61	65	54	32	82	92
2022-09	Ress	59	57	54	29	84	92
2022-06	Ress	53	56	54	28	51	92
2022-05	Hyp	54	57	54	28	51	92
2022-04	Exp	54	57	54	28	57	92
2022-02	Exp	58	64	54	30	67	92
2022-01	Rec	60	63	54	30	82	92
2021-11	Rec	63	56	54	42	93	93
2021-10	Exp	59	56	54	42	73	93
2021-08	Exp	52	49	54	41	40	93
2021-05	Exp	62	51	54	41	92	93
2021-04	Rec	62	55	54	41	93	93
2021-02	Rec	54	66	54	41	34	93
2021-01	Exp	53	63	54	41	28	93
2020-11	Exp	50	64	54	29	22	92
2020-10	Rec	51	65	54	29	28	92
2020-08	Rec	59	85	54	30	54	92
2020-05	Rec	52	75	54	29	23	92
2020-02	Exp	62	82	54	30	78	92
2019-12	Exp	62	81	54	28	79	90
2019-09	Exp	57	69	54	27	66	90
2019-08	Rec	56	68	54	27	60	90
2019-06	Rec	56	75	54	27	55	90
2019-05	Exp	55	74	54	27	48	90
2019-03	Exp	53	61	54	26	51	90
2019-01	Exp	53	65	54	26	44	90

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022