Rankings/Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Memphis, TN-MS-AR

NeutralTier 1CBSA 32820Compare

Risk Rank: #166 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -4

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Memphis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 166th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Memphis experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp52

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+14.2%p64

Days on Market YoY

+10.3%p68

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.7%p26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+0.0%p52

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.68p31

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.25p20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$390Kp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	46	12	56	20	58	98
2025-12	Exp	42	24	17	21	60	98
2025-11	Rec	49	15	54	19	76	92
2025-09	Rec	44	15	54	19	42	92
2025-07	Hyp	48	8	54	19	77	92
2025-05	Ress	52	28	54	23	79	92
2025-03	Ress	55	27	54	24	96	92
2025-02	Hyp	56	27	54	24	97	92
2025-01	Rec	56	26	54	24	98	92
2024-12	Hyp	52	9	54	22	93	92
2024-10	Hyp	50	11	54	22	79	92
2024-07	Ress	52	18	54	24	83	92
2024-05	Ress	50	15	54	26	77	92
2024-02	Ress	50	8	54	27	81	92
2024-01	Hyp	51	9	54	27	83	92
2023-12	Rec	52	6	54	31	88	92
2023-11	Ress	51	7	54	31	85	92
2023-09	Ress	54	15	54	33	93	92
2023-08	Hyp	56	23	54	33	96	92
2023-06	Hyp	60	40	54	37	98	92
2023-03	Hyp	63	61	54	42	89	92
2023-02	Ress	63	56	54	42	94	92
2022-12	Ress	61	65	54	32	82	92
2022-09	Ress	59	57	54	29	84	92
2022-06	Ress	53	56	54	28	51	92
2022-05	Hyp	54	57	54	28	51	92
2022-04	Exp	54	57	54	28	57	92
2022-02	Exp	58	64	54	30	67	92
2022-01	Rec	60	63	54	30	82	92
2021-11	Rec	63	56	54	42	93	93
2021-10	Exp	59	56	54	42	73	93
2021-08	Exp	52	49	54	41	40	93
2021-05	Exp	62	51	54	41	92	93
2021-04	Rec	62	55	54	41	93	93
2021-02	Rec	54	66	54	41	34	93
2021-01	Exp	53	63	54	41	28	93
2020-11	Exp	50	64	54	29	22	92
2020-10	Rec	51	65	54	29	28	92
2020-08	Rec	59	85	54	30	54	92
2020-05	Rec	52	75	54	29	23	92
2020-02	Exp	62	82	54	30	78	92
2019-12	Exp	62	81	54	28	79	90
2019-09	Exp	57	69	54	27	66	90
2019-08	Rec	56	68	54	27	60	90
2019-06	Rec	56	75	54	27	55	90
2019-05	Exp	55	74	54	27	48	90
2019-03	Exp	53	61	54	26	51	90
2019-01	Exp	53	65	54	26	44	90

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023