Cycle Phase
Medford experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Medford's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +0.6% | p22 |
| Permit Growth | +20.5% | p83 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 4.59 | p56 |
| Affordability | 0.31 | p76 |
| Employment | -0.2% | p73 |
| Net AGI Migration | +$51K | p36 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
ElevatedRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 41 |
| 2025-09 | 44 |
| 2025-08 | 45 |
| 2025-07 | 44 |
| 2025-06 | 52 |
| 2025-04 | 52 |
| 2025-02 | 47 |
| 2025-01 | 46 |
| 2024-12 | 52 |
| 2024-11 | 52 |
| 2024-10 | 52 |
| 2024-09 | 46 |
| 2024-07 | 45 |
| 2024-05 | 44 |
| 2024-03 | 42 |
| 2024-02 | 43 |
| 2023-12 | 40 |
| 2023-09 | 44 |
| 2023-08 | 44 |
| 2023-06 | 42 |
| 2023-03 | 44 |
| 2023-02 | 42 |
| 2022-12 | 43 |
| 2022-11 | 44 |
| 2022-09 | 45 |
| 2022-07 | 46 |
| 2022-05 | 47 |
| 2022-03 | 52 |
| 2022-01 | 50 |
| 2021-12 | 51 |
| 2021-10 | 54 |
| 2021-09 | 56 |
| 2021-08 | 55 |
| 2021-06 | 56 |
| 2021-03 | 53 |
| 2020-12 | 52 |
| 2020-11 | 52 |
| 2020-09 | 44 |
| 2020-06 | 46 |
| 2020-03 | 38 |
| 2019-12 | 40 |
| 2019-09 | 44 |
| 2019-06 | 47 |
| 2019-05 | 46 |
| 2019-03 | 55 |
| 2019-01 | 50 |