Medford, OR
Executive Summary
Medford's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 28th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Medford experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and affordability, while migration provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
ElevatedRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.
Employment Concentration
Employment
ModerateInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 41 |
| 2025-09 | 44 |
| 2025-08 | 45 |
| 2025-07 | 44 |
| 2025-06 | 52 |
| 2025-04 | 52 |
| 2025-02 | 47 |
| 2025-01 | 46 |
| 2024-12 | 52 |
| 2024-11 | 52 |
| 2024-10 | 52 |
| 2024-09 | 46 |
| 2024-07 | 45 |
| 2024-05 | 44 |
| 2024-03 | 42 |
| 2024-02 | 43 |
| 2023-12 | 40 |
| 2023-09 | 44 |
| 2023-08 | 44 |
| 2023-06 | 42 |
| 2023-03 | 44 |
| 2023-02 | 42 |
| 2022-12 | 43 |
| 2022-11 | 44 |
| 2022-09 | 45 |
| 2022-07 | 46 |
| 2022-05 | 47 |
| 2022-03 | 52 |
| 2022-01 | 50 |
| 2021-12 | 51 |
| 2021-10 | 54 |
| 2021-09 | 56 |
| 2021-08 | 55 |
| 2021-06 | 56 |
| 2021-03 | 53 |
| 2020-12 | 52 |
| 2020-11 | 52 |
| 2020-09 | 44 |
| 2020-06 | 46 |
| 2020-03 | 38 |
| 2019-12 | 40 |
| 2019-09 | 44 |
| 2019-06 | 47 |
| 2019-05 | 46 |
| 2019-03 | 55 |
| 2019-01 | 50 |