Rankings/McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 32580Compare

Risk Rank: #126 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -14

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

McAllen's housing market shows average risk, ranking 126th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

McAllen experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap84

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp79

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp73

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.1%p67

Days on Market YoY

+5.1%p58

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.9%p18

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-4.1%p44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.86p84

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p73

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.5%p9

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$41Kp79

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorHealth Care 28.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	64	81	56	79	8	76
2025-09	Hyp	67	87	56	79	22	76
2025-07	Hyp	65	83	56	79	13	76
2025-06	Ress	58	35	56	72	27	76
2025-04	Ress	63	50	56	72	44	76
2025-03	Hyp	69	87	56	77	36	76
2025-01	Rec	66	57	56	77	46	76
2024-12	Hyp	65	43	56	72	61	76
2024-10	Hyp	73	80	56	72	73	76
2024-07	Hyp	66	64	56	73	46	76
2024-06	Ress	64	31	56	73	65	76
2024-04	Ress	56	19	56	73	31	76
2024-01	Ress	67	80	56	74	33	76
2023-12	Hyp	57	32	56	66	31	76
2023-10	Hyp	54	34	56	66	12	76
2023-07	Hyp	63	77	56	69	18	76
2023-04	Ress	68	97	56	75	21	76
2023-02	Ress	62	78	56	69	10	76
2022-11	Ress	66	87	56	77	16	76
2022-10	Hyp	67	91	56	77	22	76
2022-08	Ress	64	81	56	74	16	76
2022-06	Ress	64	72	56	71	28	76
2022-05	Hyp	63	71	56	71	23	76
2022-04	Exp	62	68	56	71	20	76
2022-02	Exp	61	66	56	74	13	76
2022-01	Rec	61	57	56	74	22	76
2021-11	Rec	51	29	57	70	14	54
2021-10	Exp	50	36	57	70	5	54
2021-08	Exp	49	14	57	70	20	54
2021-05	Rec	58	10	57	72	76	54
2021-03	Rec	56	26	57	79	36	54
2021-01	Exp	56	36	57	79	26	54
2020-11	Exp	54	8	57	76	27	73
2020-10	Rec	55	8	57	76	36	73
2020-08	Rec	56	22	57	78	26	73
2020-06	Exp	65	86	57	82	9	73
2020-04	Exp	66	93	57	82	8	73
2020-03	Rec	62	72	57	81	9	73
2020-01	Rec	53	16	57	81	12	73
2019-10	Exp	64	68	57	82	20	78
2019-08	Exp	61	55	57	81	13	78
2019-07	Rec	63	62	57	81	20	78
2019-05	Rec	55	4	57	77	31	78
2019-04	Exp	53	4	57	77	22	78
2019-02	Exp	60	37	57	84	25	78
2019-01	Exp	62	37	57	84	35	78

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022