Rankings/Manchester-Nashua, NH

Manchester-Nashua, NH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31700Compare

Risk Rank: #174 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +18

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Manchester's housing market shows average risk, ranking 174th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Manchester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump74

12-month HPI change

Employmentp72

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+4.2%p53

Days on Market YoY

+22.2%p83

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p72

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.4%p74

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-13.5%p24

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.64p12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.2%p72

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$1Kp55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-13.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 15.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	41	58	11	36	73	55
2025-12	Rec	42	90	4	36	53	55
2025-11	Hyp	32	76	6	35	28	28
2025-09	Hyp	28	67	6	35	12	28
2025-06	Ress	32	72	6	35	32	28
2025-04	Ress	40	76	6	35	75	28
2025-02	Rec	37	59	6	32	77	28
2025-01	Exp	39	68	6	32	81	28
2024-11	Exp	43	87	6	34	82	28
2024-08	Hyp	44	87	6	32	91	28
2024-07	Exp	43	83	6	32	88	28
2024-05	Exp	46	86	6	33	99	28
2024-02	Rec	40	73	6	29	84	28
2023-12	Rec	39	72	6	23	84	28
2023-11	Exp	38	71	6	23	77	28
2023-09	Exp	39	81	6	24	76	28
2023-08	Rec	42	84	6	24	92	28
2023-06	Rec	37	71	6	24	71	28
2023-03	Hyp	35	52	6	22	82	28
2023-01	Ress	34	61	6	22	63	28
2022-11	Ress	37	58	6	26	85	28
2022-10	Exp	38	56	6	26	91	28
2022-09	Rec	33	37	6	24	81	28
2022-07	Rec	32	39	6	24	72	28
2022-06	Exp	35	51	6	26	79	28
2022-04	Exp	36	52	6	26	85	28
2022-01	Exp	36	48	6	24	89	28
2021-12	Rec	36	56	5	23	89	21
2021-10	Rec	34	55	5	23	79	21
2021-09	Exp	37	65	5	23	86	21
2021-07	Exp	34	72	5	23	60	21
2021-04	Exp	31	80	5	23	35	21
2021-02	Rec	36	85	5	23	64	21
2020-12	Rec	46	92	5	24	64	70
2020-11	Exp	46	91	5	24	65	70
2020-09	Exp	43	82	5	22	60	70
2020-08	Rec	44	84	5	22	66	70
2020-06	Rec	46	82	5	22	76	70
2020-05	Exp	45	80	5	22	74	70
2020-03	Exp	44	69	5	21	77	70
2020-02	Rec	42	72	5	21	66	70
2019-12	Rec	40	75	5	21	71	47
2019-11	Exp	39	70	5	21	69	47
2019-09	Exp	34	49	5	20	60	47
2019-07	Rec	30	39	5	20	52	47
2019-05	Rec	31	52	5	20	44	47
2019-04	Exp	33	57	5	20	48	47
2019-02	Exp	30	41	5	19	50	47
2019-01	Exp	32	42	5	19	56	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023