Rankings/Manchester-Nashua, NH

Manchester-Nashua, NH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31700Compare

Risk Rank: #218 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +9

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Manchester's housing market shows average risk, ranking 218th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Manchester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp73

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump58

12-month HPI change

Migrationp55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.4%p56

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.6%p83

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.7%p58

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-27.2%p11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.60p11

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.1%p73

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$1Kp55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-27.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 15.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	42	62	5	36	81	55
2025-12	Rec	42	90	4	36	53	55
2025-11	Hyp	32	76	6	35	28	28
2025-09	Hyp	28	67	6	35	12	28
2025-06	Ress	32	72	6	35	32	28
2025-04	Ress	40	76	6	35	75	28
2025-02	Rec	37	59	6	32	77	28
2025-01	Exp	39	68	6	32	81	28
2024-11	Exp	43	87	6	34	82	28
2024-08	Hyp	44	87	6	32	91	28
2024-07	Exp	43	83	6	32	88	28
2024-05	Exp	46	86	6	33	99	28
2024-02	Rec	40	73	6	29	84	28
2023-12	Rec	39	72	6	23	84	28
2023-11	Exp	38	71	6	23	77	28
2023-09	Exp	39	81	6	24	76	28
2023-08	Rec	42	84	6	24	92	28
2023-06	Rec	37	71	6	24	71	28
2023-03	Hyp	35	52	6	22	82	28
2023-01	Ress	34	61	6	22	63	28
2022-11	Ress	37	58	6	26	85	28
2022-10	Exp	38	56	6	26	91	28
2022-09	Rec	33	37	6	24	81	28
2022-07	Rec	32	39	6	24	72	28
2022-06	Exp	35	51	6	26	79	28
2022-04	Exp	36	52	6	26	85	28
2022-01	Exp	36	48	6	24	89	28
2021-12	Rec	36	56	5	23	89	21
2021-10	Rec	34	55	5	23	79	21
2021-09	Exp	37	65	5	23	86	21
2021-07	Exp	34	72	5	23	60	21
2021-04	Exp	31	80	5	23	35	21
2021-02	Rec	36	85	5	23	64	21
2020-12	Rec	46	92	5	24	64	70
2020-11	Exp	46	91	5	24	65	70
2020-09	Exp	43	82	5	22	60	70
2020-08	Rec	44	84	5	22	66	70
2020-06	Rec	46	82	5	22	76	70
2020-05	Exp	45	80	5	22	74	70
2020-03	Exp	44	69	5	21	77	70
2020-02	Rec	42	72	5	21	66	70
2019-12	Rec	40	75	5	21	71	47
2019-11	Exp	39	70	5	21	69	47
2019-09	Exp	34	49	5	20	60	47
2019-07	Rec	30	39	5	20	52	47
2019-05	Rec	31	52	5	20	44	47
2019-04	Exp	33	57	5	20	48	47
2019-02	Exp	30	41	5	19	50	47
2019-01	Exp	32	42	5	19	56	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023