Rankings/Manchester-Nashua, NH

Manchester-Nashua, NH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31700Compare

Risk Rank: #212 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +1

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Manchester's housing market shows average risk, ranking 212th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Manchester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump90

12-month HPI change

Migrationp55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+20.8%p70

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p44

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.4%p90

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-35.1%p4

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.62p13

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$1Kp55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-35.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 15.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	32	76	6	35	28	28
2025-09	Hyp	28	67	6	35	12	28
2025-06	Ress	32	72	6	35	32	28
2025-04	Ress	40	76	6	35	75	28
2025-02	Rec	37	59	6	32	77	28
2025-01	Exp	39	68	6	32	81	28
2024-11	Exp	43	87	6	34	82	28
2024-08	Hyp	44	87	6	32	91	28
2024-07	Exp	43	83	6	32	88	28
2024-05	Exp	46	86	6	33	99	28
2024-02	Rec	40	73	6	29	84	28
2023-12	Rec	39	72	6	23	84	28
2023-11	Exp	38	71	6	23	77	28
2023-09	Exp	39	81	6	24	76	28
2023-08	Rec	42	84	6	24	92	28
2023-06	Rec	37	71	6	24	71	28
2023-03	Hyp	35	52	6	22	82	28
2023-01	Ress	34	61	6	22	63	28
2022-11	Ress	37	58	6	26	85	28
2022-10	Exp	38	56	6	26	91	28
2022-09	Rec	33	37	6	24	81	28
2022-07	Rec	32	39	6	24	72	28
2022-06	Exp	35	51	6	26	79	28
2022-04	Exp	36	52	6	26	85	28
2022-01	Exp	36	48	6	24	89	28
2021-12	Rec	36	56	5	23	89	21
2021-10	Rec	34	55	5	23	79	21
2021-09	Exp	37	65	5	23	86	21
2021-07	Exp	34	72	5	23	60	21
2021-04	Exp	31	80	5	23	35	21
2021-02	Rec	36	85	5	23	64	21
2020-12	Rec	46	92	5	24	64	70
2020-11	Exp	46	91	5	24	65	70
2020-09	Exp	43	82	5	22	60	70
2020-08	Rec	44	84	5	22	66	70
2020-06	Rec	46	82	5	22	76	70
2020-05	Exp	45	80	5	22	74	70
2020-03	Exp	44	69	5	21	77	70
2020-02	Rec	42	72	5	21	66	70
2019-12	Rec	40	75	5	21	71	47
2019-11	Exp	39	70	5	21	69	47
2019-09	Exp	34	49	5	20	60	47
2019-07	Rec	30	39	5	20	52	47
2019-05	Rec	31	52	5	20	44	47
2019-04	Exp	33	57	5	20	48	47
2019-02	Exp	30	41	5	19	50	47
2019-01	Exp	32	42	5	19	56	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023