Rankings/Manchester-Nashua, NH

Manchester-Nashua, NH

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 31700Compare

Risk Rank: #267 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Manchester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Manchester's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 267th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p83 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p53 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p36 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+20.8%p70

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.4%p59

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum83

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth4

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration28

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.4%	p83
Permit Growth	-35.1%	p4
Permits/1K Pop	1.62	p12
Affordability	0.26	p36
Employment	+0.2%	p53
Net AGI Migration	+$85K	p28

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-35.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+20.8%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	32	76	6	35	28	28
2025-09	Hyp	28	67	6	35	12	28
2025-06	Ress	32	72	6	35	32	28
2025-04	Ress	40	76	6	35	75	28
2025-02	Rec	37	59	6	32	77	28
2025-01	Exp	39	68	6	32	81	28
2024-11	Exp	43	87	6	34	82	28
2024-08	Hyp	44	87	6	32	91	28
2024-07	Exp	43	83	6	32	88	28
2024-05	Exp	46	86	6	33	99	28
2024-02	Rec	40	73	6	29	84	28
2023-12	Rec	39	72	6	23	84	28
2023-11	Exp	38	71	6	23	77	28
2023-09	Exp	39	81	6	24	76	28
2023-08	Rec	42	84	6	24	92	28
2023-06	Rec	37	71	6	24	71	28
2023-03	Hyp	35	52	6	22	82	28
2023-01	Ress	34	61	6	22	63	28
2022-11	Ress	37	58	6	26	85	28
2022-10	Exp	38	56	6	26	91	28
2022-09	Rec	33	37	6	24	81	28
2022-07	Rec	32	39	6	24	72	28
2022-06	Exp	35	51	6	26	79	28
2022-04	Exp	36	52	6	26	85	28
2022-01	Exp	36	48	6	24	89	28
2021-12	Rec	36	56	5	23	89	21
2021-10	Rec	34	55	5	23	79	21
2021-09	Exp	37	65	5	23	86	21
2021-07	Exp	34	72	5	23	60	21
2021-04	Exp	31	80	5	23	35	21
2021-02	Rec	36	85	5	23	64	21
2020-12	Rec	46	92	5	24	64	70
2020-11	Exp	46	91	5	24	65	70
2020-09	Exp	43	82	5	22	60	70
2020-08	Rec	44	84	5	22	66	70
2020-06	Rec	46	82	5	22	76	70
2020-05	Exp	45	80	5	22	74	70
2020-03	Exp	44	69	5	21	77	70
2020-02	Rec	42	72	5	21	66	70
2019-12	Rec	40	75	5	21	71	47
2019-11	Exp	39	70	5	21	69	47
2019-09	Exp	34	49	5	20	60	47
2019-07	Rec	30	39	5	20	52	47
2019-05	Rec	31	52	5	20	44	47
2019-04	Exp	33	57	5	20	48	47
2019-02	Exp	30	41	5	19	50	47
2019-01	Exp	32	42	5	19	56	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022