Rankings/Manchester-Nashua, NH

Manchester-Nashua, NH

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 31700Compare

Risk Rank: #247 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Manchester's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 247th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Manchester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump90

12-month HPI change

Employmentp53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp36

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+20.8%p70

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p44

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.4%p90

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-35.1%p4

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.62p13

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$85Kp28

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-35.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 15.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	32	76	6	35	28	28
2025-09	Hyp	28	67	6	35	12	28
2025-06	Ress	32	72	6	35	32	28
2025-04	Ress	40	76	6	35	75	28
2025-02	Rec	37	59	6	32	77	28
2025-01	Exp	39	68	6	32	81	28
2024-11	Exp	43	87	6	34	82	28
2024-08	Hyp	44	87	6	32	91	28
2024-07	Exp	43	83	6	32	88	28
2024-05	Exp	46	86	6	33	99	28
2024-02	Rec	40	73	6	29	84	28
2023-12	Rec	39	72	6	23	84	28
2023-11	Exp	38	71	6	23	77	28
2023-09	Exp	39	81	6	24	76	28
2023-08	Rec	42	84	6	24	92	28
2023-06	Rec	37	71	6	24	71	28
2023-03	Hyp	35	52	6	22	82	28
2023-01	Ress	34	61	6	22	63	28
2022-11	Ress	37	58	6	26	85	28
2022-10	Exp	38	56	6	26	91	28
2022-09	Rec	33	37	6	24	81	28
2022-07	Rec	32	39	6	24	72	28
2022-06	Exp	35	51	6	26	79	28
2022-04	Exp	36	52	6	26	85	28
2022-01	Exp	36	48	6	24	89	28
2021-12	Rec	36	56	5	23	89	21
2021-10	Rec	34	55	5	23	79	21
2021-09	Exp	37	65	5	23	86	21
2021-07	Exp	34	72	5	23	60	21
2021-04	Exp	31	80	5	23	35	21
2021-02	Rec	36	85	5	23	64	21
2020-12	Rec	46	92	5	24	64	70
2020-11	Exp	46	91	5	24	65	70
2020-09	Exp	43	82	5	22	60	70
2020-08	Rec	44	84	5	22	66	70
2020-06	Rec	46	82	5	22	76	70
2020-05	Exp	45	80	5	22	74	70
2020-03	Exp	44	69	5	21	77	70
2020-02	Rec	42	72	5	21	66	70
2019-12	Rec	40	75	5	21	71	47
2019-11	Exp	39	70	5	21	69	47
2019-09	Exp	34	49	5	20	60	47
2019-07	Rec	30	39	5	20	52	47
2019-05	Rec	31	52	5	20	44	47
2019-04	Exp	33	57	5	20	48	47
2019-02	Exp	30	41	5	19	50	47
2019-01	Exp	32	42	5	19	56	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022