Rankings/Madison, WI

Madison, WI

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 31540Compare

Risk Rank: #19 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Madison experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Madison's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 19th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permits per capita and migration. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p93 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p89 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p81 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +10% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+18.3%p68

Days on Market YoY

+10.1%p68

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p54

Months in status38

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum58

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita93

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment45

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p58
Permit Growth	+19.1%	p81
Permits/1K Pop	10.16	p93
Affordability	0.24	p20
Employment	+0.4%	p45
Net AGI Migration	-$145K	p89

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+19.1%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+18.3%

Days on Market YoY+10.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Madison's counties diverge significantly — Green County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Columbia County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High30.0Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Madison, WI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Green County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Columbia County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Green CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	100	67	67
Iowa County	67	Elevated	25.0%	67	100	33
Dane County	55	Average	25.0%	33	33	100
Columbia CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	25.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	63	61	60	18	64	89
2025-09	Hyp	66	66	60	18	76	89
2025-07	Rec	70	70	60	18	98	89
2025-06	Ress	70	68	60	19	97	89
2025-04	Hyp	61	51	60	19	65	89
2025-02	Hyp	67	63	60	19	88	89
2025-01	Rec	60	69	60	19	42	89
2024-11	Hyp	63	55	60	19	73	89
2024-09	Hyp	62	52	60	19	67	89
2024-08	Ress	58	59	60	19	40	89
2024-06	Ress	61	83	60	20	32	89
2024-03	Hyp	59	77	60	18	26	89
2024-02	Exp	60	83	60	18	26	89
2023-12	Exp	63	93	60	23	31	89
2023-09	Exp	60	83	60	23	23	89
2023-08	Rec	61	79	60	23	33	89
2023-06	Rec	64	80	60	23	46	89
2023-03	Hyp	53	40	60	19	28	89
2023-02	Ress	56	47	60	19	37	89
2022-12	Ress	57	58	60	16	37	89
2022-11	Hyp	56	57	60	16	33	89
2022-10	Exp	57	57	60	16	38	89
2022-09	Rec	62	61	60	15	64	89
2022-07	Rec	62	49	60	15	75	89
2022-06	Exp	61	41	60	15	77	89
2022-04	Exp	60	35	60	15	76	89
2022-01	Rec	57	23	60	14	74	89
2021-11	Rec	54	15	60	14	64	92
2021-10	Exp	55	15	60	14	68	92
2021-08	Exp	53	23	60	14	48	92
2021-05	Exp	55	26	60	15	57	92
2021-03	Rec	54	17	60	14	62	92
2021-01	Rec	53	19	60	14	53	92
2020-10	Rec	53	23	60	11	51	91
2020-07	Rec	53	18	60	11	57	91
2020-06	Exp	55	15	60	11	70	91
2020-04	Exp	52	15	60	11	50	91
2020-03	Rec	50	14	60	11	39	91
2020-01	Rec	52	22	60	11	48	91
2019-12	Exp	53	28	60	11	49	85
2019-10	Exp	52	24	60	11	50	85
2019-09	Rec	55	26	60	11	65	85
2019-07	Rec	53	20	60	11	57	85
2019-04	Rec	52	24	60	11	48	85
2019-03	Exp	54	29	60	12	58	85
2019-01	Exp	57	46	60	12	57	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022