Rankings/Macon-Bibb County, GA

Macon-Bibb County, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31420Compare

Risk Rank: #150 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Macon experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 3 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Macon's housing market shows average risk, ranking 150th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p72 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p67 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p51 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking -4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.2%p62

Days on Market YoY

-3.8%p40

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.8%p53

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum72

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth28

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita24

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability50

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment67

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration51

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.8%	p72
Permit Growth	-14.3%	p28
Permits/1K Pop	2.17	p24
Affordability	0.27	p50
Employment	-0.1%	p67
Net AGI Migration	+$11K	p51

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+12.2%

Days on Market YoY-3.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Macon's counties diverge significantly — Jones County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Crawford County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High30.0Limited data

4 of 5 counties scored

Macon, GA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Jones County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Crawford County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Jones CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	100	100	33
Bibb County	67	Elevated	25.0%	67	33	100
Monroe County	56	Elevated	25.0%	33	67	67
Twiggs CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Crawford CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	25.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	51	65	54	49	58	50
2025-09	Rec	53	63	54	49	71	50
2025-07	Rec	49	73	54	49	40	50
2025-06	Hyp	61	100	54	62	70	50
2025-05	Ress	61	100	54	62	73	50
2025-03	Ress	52	62	54	42	77	50
2025-01	Rec	52	81	54	42	59	50
2024-12	Ress	60	96	54	46	87	50
2024-11	Hyp	61	97	54	46	88	50
2024-09	Rec	60	90	54	43	92	50
2024-08	Ress	59	81	54	43	95	50
2024-06	Hyp	51	67	54	44	61	50
2024-04	Ress	53	59	54	44	84	50
2024-02	Ress	51	39	54	38	97	50
2024-01	Hyp	54	51	54	38	99	50
2023-11	Ress	47	31	54	19	97	50
2023-09	Ress	49	45	54	21	95	50
2023-08	Hyp	50	49	54	21	97	50
2023-07	Rec	50	50	54	21	96	50
2023-06	Ress	55	72	54	23	100	50
2023-04	Ress	56	82	54	23	100	50
2023-03	Hyp	51	64	54	21	90	50
2023-02	Ress	53	68	54	21	97	50
2022-12	Ress	59	86	54	38	98	50
2022-11	Hyp	59	84	54	38	98	50
2022-10	Exp	59	81	54	38	100	50
2022-08	Exp	58	79	54	36	98	50
2022-06	Hyp	52	60	54	32	86	50
2022-04	Rec	49	47	54	32	79	50
2022-02	Rec	48	26	54	29	99	50
2021-12	Exp	42	19	54	18	79	56
2021-10	Exp	42	25	54	18	70	56
2021-09	Hyp	41	20	54	17	70	56
2021-08	Exp	43	19	54	17	83	56
2021-06	Exp	47	29	54	17	97	56
2021-03	Exp	42	40	54	19	57	56
2020-12	Rec	41	26	54	23	46	67
2020-10	Rec	46	42	54	23	58	67
2020-09	Exp	47	59	54	24	51	67
2020-07	Exp	48	69	54	24	42	67
2020-06	Rec	45	65	54	25	28	67
2020-04	Rec	40	37	54	24	32	67
2020-03	Exp	49	58	54	25	63	67
2020-01	Exp	52	68	54	25	68	67
2019-12	Rec	47	45	54	23	69	60
2019-10	Rec	44	40	54	23	60	60
2019-07	Rec	46	29	54	22	84	60
2019-05	Ress	53	64	54	25	88	60
2019-03	Ress	47	32	54	23	85	60
2019-02	Rec	46	24	54	23	86	60
2019-01	Rec	46	19	54	23	88	60

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022