Rankings/Macon-Bibb County, GA

Macon-Bibb County, GA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 31420Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -29

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Macon's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Macon experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp44

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+4.3%p53

Days on Market YoY

+9.7%p67

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p85

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-1.1%p3

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-12.4%p31

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

2.04p20

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p44

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$18Kp44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-12.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50.7%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Macon's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Bibb County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Jones County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.5Limited data

4 of 5 counties scored

Macon, GA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bibb County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Jones County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bibb CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	68.9%	100	100	100
Monroe County	58	Elevated	13.1%	0	67	67
Twiggs CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Crawford County	42	Below Average	5.4%	67	33	0
Jones CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	12.6%	33	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	52	97	28	55	67	44
2025-10	Exp	51	57	54	49	66	50
2025-09	Rec	53	63	54	49	71	50
2025-07	Rec	49	73	54	49	40	50
2025-06	Hyp	61	100	54	62	70	50
2025-05	Ress	61	100	54	62	73	50
2025-03	Ress	52	62	54	42	77	50
2025-01	Rec	52	81	54	42	59	50
2024-12	Ress	60	96	54	46	87	50
2024-11	Hyp	61	97	54	46	88	50
2024-09	Rec	60	90	54	43	92	50
2024-08	Ress	59	81	54	43	95	50
2024-06	Hyp	51	67	54	44	61	50
2024-04	Ress	53	59	54	44	84	50
2024-02	Ress	51	39	54	38	97	50
2024-01	Hyp	54	51	54	38	99	50
2023-11	Ress	47	31	54	19	97	50
2023-09	Ress	49	45	54	21	95	50
2023-08	Hyp	50	49	54	21	97	50
2023-07	Rec	50	50	54	21	96	50
2023-06	Ress	55	72	54	23	100	50
2023-04	Ress	56	82	54	23	100	50
2023-03	Hyp	51	64	54	21	90	50
2023-02	Ress	53	68	54	21	97	50
2022-12	Ress	59	86	54	38	98	50
2022-11	Hyp	59	84	54	38	98	50
2022-10	Exp	59	81	54	38	100	50
2022-08	Exp	58	79	54	36	98	50
2022-06	Hyp	52	60	54	32	86	50
2022-04	Rec	49	47	54	32	79	50
2022-02	Rec	48	26	54	29	99	50
2021-12	Exp	42	19	54	18	79	56
2021-10	Exp	42	25	54	18	70	56
2021-09	Hyp	41	20	54	17	70	56
2021-08	Exp	43	19	54	17	83	56
2021-06	Exp	47	29	54	17	97	56
2021-03	Exp	42	40	54	19	57	56
2020-12	Rec	41	26	54	23	46	67
2020-10	Rec	46	42	54	23	58	67
2020-09	Exp	47	59	54	24	51	67
2020-07	Exp	48	69	54	24	42	67
2020-06	Rec	45	65	54	25	28	67
2020-04	Rec	40	37	54	24	32	67
2020-03	Exp	49	58	54	25	63	67
2020-01	Exp	52	68	54	25	68	67
2019-12	Rec	47	45	54	23	69	60
2019-10	Rec	44	40	54	23	60	60
2019-07	Rec	46	29	54	22	84	60
2019-05	Ress	53	64	54	25	88	60
2019-03	Ress	47	32	54	23	85	60
2019-02	Rec	46	24	54	23	86	60
2019-01	Rec	46	19	54	23	88	60

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023