Rankings/Lynchburg, VA

Lynchburg, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31340Compare

Risk Rank: #41 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -14

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lynchburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 5 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lynchburg's housing market shows average risk, ranking 41st of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 5 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p72 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +19% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.3%p68

Days on Market YoY

+19.0%p80

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p37

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum81

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita52

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability72

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.2%	p81
Permit Growth	-25.8%	p11
Permits/1K Pop	4.00	p52
Affordability	0.30	p72
Employment	-0.4%	p81
Net AGI Migration	-$2K	p60

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-25.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+18.3%

Days on Market YoY+19.0%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Lynchburg's counties diverge significantly — Lynchburg city (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Campbell County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.3

5 of 5 counties scored

Lynchburg, VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Lynchburg city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Campbell County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Lynchburg cityRisk Driver	92	High Risk	20.0%	100	75	100
Amherst County	58	Elevated	20.0%	50	100	25
Bedford County	50	Average	20.0%	25	50	75
Appomattox County	33	Below Average	20.0%	75	25	0
Campbell CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	20.0%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	72	71	79	71	85	60
2025-09	Hyp	67	64	79	71	63	60
2025-07	Rec	62	72	79	71	28	60
2025-06	Ress	63	77	79	70	30	60
2025-04	Ress	72	74	79	70	86	60
2025-03	Hyp	66	41	79	65	91	60
2025-01	Hyp	64	55	79	65	65	60
2024-11	Rec	75	90	79	68	91	60
2024-10	Hyp	76	92	79	68	92	60
2024-08	Hyp	74	87	79	66	88	60
2024-07	Ress	73	84	79	66	85	60
2024-05	Ress	69	58	79	67	88	60
2024-04	Hyp	66	42	79	67	82	60
2024-03	Ress	60	22	79	64	71	60
2024-01	Ress	60	28	79	64	65	60
2023-10	Hyp	55	29	79	45	55	60
2023-08	Rec	62	44	79	46	83	60
2023-06	Rec	72	90	79	53	90	60
2023-05	Hyp	71	87	79	53	85	60
2023-04	Ress	70	83	79	53	85	60
2023-02	Ress	71	91	79	52	84	60
2022-12	Hyp	70	81	79	53	82	60
2022-11	Exp	70	78	79	53	90	60
2022-10	Rec	71	76	79	53	94	60
2022-08	Rec	67	58	79	49	95	60
2022-07	Exp	68	62	79	49	99	60
2022-05	Exp	68	65	79	49	93	60
2022-02	Exp	62	45	79	47	81	60
2022-01	Rec	63	42	79	47	90	60
2021-11	Rec	64	47	79	46	94	60
2021-10	Exp	65	48	79	46	94	60
2021-08	Exp	62	32	79	45	95	60
2021-05	Exp	58	19	79	46	86	60
2021-03	Rec	54	23	79	47	55	60
2021-01	Rec	56	25	79	47	61	60
2020-12	Exp	50	16	79	41	55	46
2020-10	Exp	50	18	79	41	53	46
2020-09	Rec	53	39	79	43	52	46
2020-07	Rec	56	59	79	43	45	46
2020-05	Exp	55	57	79	43	43	46
2020-03	Exp	61	49	79	45	87	46
2020-02	Rec	62	50	79	45	88	46
2019-12	Rec	60	49	79	45	66	60
2019-11	Exp	64	57	79	45	83	60
2019-09	Exp	58	27	79	42	81	60
2019-07	Rec	58	18	79	42	90	60
2019-05	Rec	55	31	79	45	52	60
2019-03	Ress	51	30	79	45	33	60
2019-01	Ress	53	31	79	45	42	60

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022