Rankings/Lynchburg, VA

Lynchburg, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31340Compare

Risk Rank: #97 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -21

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lynchburg's housing market shows average risk, ranking 97th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 5 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Lynchburg experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +19% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

5 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp67

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp62

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +19% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.3%p68

Days on Market YoY

+19.0%p80

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.5%p57

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.8%p46

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-25.8%p12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.00p51

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p67

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.4%p81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$6Kp62

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-25.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 19.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Lynchburg's counties diverge significantly — Lynchburg city (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Campbell County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9

5 of 5 counties scored

Lynchburg, VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Lynchburg city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Campbell County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Lynchburg cityRisk Driver	88	High Risk	30.1%	100	75	100
Amherst County	69	Elevated	11.9%	50	100	25
Appomattox County	38	Below Average	6.3%	75	25	0
Bedford County	38	Below Average	30.7%	25	50	75
Campbell CountyStabilizer	19	Low Risk	21.0%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	72	71	79	71	85	60
2025-09	Hyp	67	64	79	71	63	60
2025-07	Rec	62	72	79	71	28	60
2025-06	Ress	63	77	79	70	30	60
2025-04	Ress	72	74	79	70	86	60
2025-03	Hyp	66	41	79	65	91	60
2025-01	Hyp	64	55	79	65	65	60
2024-11	Rec	75	90	79	68	91	60
2024-10	Hyp	76	92	79	68	92	60
2024-08	Hyp	74	87	79	66	88	60
2024-07	Ress	73	84	79	66	85	60
2024-05	Ress	69	58	79	67	88	60
2024-04	Hyp	66	42	79	67	82	60
2024-03	Ress	60	22	79	64	71	60
2024-01	Ress	60	28	79	64	65	60
2023-10	Hyp	55	29	79	45	55	60
2023-08	Rec	62	44	79	46	83	60
2023-06	Rec	72	90	79	53	90	60
2023-05	Hyp	71	87	79	53	85	60
2023-04	Ress	70	83	79	53	85	60
2023-02	Ress	71	91	79	52	84	60
2022-12	Hyp	70	81	79	53	82	60
2022-11	Exp	70	78	79	53	90	60
2022-10	Rec	71	76	79	53	94	60
2022-08	Rec	67	58	79	49	95	60
2022-07	Exp	68	62	79	49	99	60
2022-05	Exp	68	65	79	49	93	60
2022-02	Exp	62	45	79	47	81	60
2022-01	Rec	63	42	79	47	90	60
2021-11	Rec	64	47	79	46	94	60
2021-10	Exp	65	48	79	46	94	60
2021-08	Exp	62	32	79	45	95	60
2021-05	Exp	58	19	79	46	86	60
2021-03	Rec	54	23	79	47	55	60
2021-01	Rec	56	25	79	47	61	60
2020-12	Exp	50	16	79	41	55	46
2020-10	Exp	50	18	79	41	53	46
2020-09	Rec	53	39	79	43	52	46
2020-07	Rec	56	59	79	43	45	46
2020-05	Exp	55	57	79	43	43	46
2020-03	Exp	61	49	79	45	87	46
2020-02	Rec	62	50	79	45	88	46
2019-12	Rec	60	49	79	45	66	60
2019-11	Exp	64	57	79	45	83	60
2019-09	Exp	58	27	79	42	81	60
2019-07	Rec	58	18	79	42	90	60
2019-05	Rec	55	31	79	45	52	60
2019-03	Ress	51	30	79	45	33	60
2019-01	Ress	53	31	79	45	42	60

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023