Rankings/Lubbock, TX

Lubbock, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31180Compare

Risk Rank: #49 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +20

59score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lubbock experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 4 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lubbock's housing market shows average risk, ranking 49th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and permits per capita. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p87 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p85 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p54 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.9%p59

Days on Market YoY

+1.5%p50

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.7%p38

Months in status35

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth87

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita85

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability41

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment42

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration47

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.6%	p54
Permit Growth	+28.9%	p87
Permits/1K Pop	8.02	p85
Affordability	0.27	p41
Employment	+0.5%	p42
Net AGI Migration	+$20K	p47

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+28.9%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+9.9%

Days on Market YoY+1.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 14 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	48	53	27	40	52	47
2025-09	Exp	48	47	27	40	61	47
2025-08	Rec	45	42	27	40	45	47
2025-06	Rec	38	24	27	39	19	47
2025-04	Exp	42	23	27	40	49	47
2025-02	Exp	43	21	27	42	53	47
2025-01	Rec	40	22	27	42	31	47
2024-11	Rec	41	4	27	41	58	47
2024-10	Hyp	41	3	27	41	57	47
2024-09	Rec	38	5	27	45	34	47
2024-08	Ress	37	7	27	45	25	47
2024-06	Ress	37	11	27	46	24	47
2024-03	Ress	36	4	27	49	22	47
2024-02	Hyp	35	3	27	49	13	47
2023-12	Hyp	42	18	27	68	20	47
2023-09	Hyp	41	8	27	65	29	47
2023-06	Hyp	49	25	27	69	59	47
2023-03	Ress	54	47	27	73	62	47
2023-01	Ress	55	42	27	73	72	47
2022-10	Ress	57	60	27	58	79	47
2022-07	Ress	46	43	27	56	31	47
2022-06	Hyp	46	32	27	56	45	47
2022-04	Exp	47	33	27	56	50	47
2022-02	Exp	47	44	27	59	38	47
2022-01	Rec	47	45	27	59	36	47
2021-11	Rec	41	27	27	46	32	43
2021-10	Exp	41	25	27	46	34	43
2021-08	Exp	48	30	27	50	72	43
2021-05	Exp	48	25	27	51	73	43
2021-04	Rec	47	27	27	51	67	43
2021-02	Rec	39	15	27	50	29	43
2020-12	Exp	38	18	27	51	23	38
2020-10	Exp	39	25	27	51	26	38
2020-09	Rec	44	47	27	53	27	38
2020-07	Rec	41	25	27	53	32	38
2020-04	Exp	38	12	27	52	27	38
2020-02	Exp	47	27	27	54	67	38
2019-11	Exp	40	20	27	52	38	38
2019-10	Rec	41	25	27	52	35	38
2019-08	Rec	45	26	27	57	54	38
2019-05	Rec	46	46	27	55	40	38
2019-03	Exp	46	42	27	55	44	38
2019-01	Exp	43	25	27	55	43	38

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022