Rankings/Lubbock, TX

Lubbock, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31180Compare

Risk Rank: #211 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— +4

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lubbock's housing market shows average risk, ranking 211th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Lubbock experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap81

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp63

YoY permit change

Migrationp38

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-5.6%p42

Days on Market YoY

-2.2%p43

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.5%p90

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.8%p3

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+4.7%p63

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.56p81

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.0%p28

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$31Kp38

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+4.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 58.3%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	40	6	50	36	30	38
2025-12	Exp	54	36	86	39	42	38
2025-10	Exp	50	52	27	40	67	47
2025-08	Rec	45	42	27	40	45	47
2025-06	Rec	38	24	27	39	19	47
2025-04	Exp	42	23	27	40	49	47
2025-02	Exp	43	21	27	42	53	47
2025-01	Rec	40	22	27	42	31	47
2024-11	Rec	41	4	27	41	58	47
2024-10	Hyp	41	3	27	41	57	47
2024-09	Rec	38	5	27	45	34	47
2024-08	Ress	37	7	27	45	25	47
2024-06	Ress	37	11	27	46	24	47
2024-03	Ress	36	4	27	49	22	47
2024-02	Hyp	35	3	27	49	13	47
2023-12	Hyp	42	18	27	68	20	47
2023-09	Hyp	41	8	27	65	29	47
2023-06	Hyp	49	25	27	69	59	47
2023-03	Ress	54	47	27	73	62	47
2023-01	Ress	55	42	27	73	72	47
2022-10	Ress	57	60	27	58	79	47
2022-07	Ress	46	43	27	56	31	47
2022-06	Hyp	46	32	27	56	45	47
2022-04	Exp	47	33	27	56	50	47
2022-02	Exp	47	44	27	59	38	47
2022-01	Rec	47	45	27	59	36	47
2021-11	Rec	41	27	27	46	32	43
2021-10	Exp	41	25	27	46	34	43
2021-08	Exp	48	30	27	50	72	43
2021-05	Exp	48	25	27	51	73	43
2021-04	Rec	47	27	27	51	67	43
2021-02	Rec	39	15	27	50	29	43
2020-12	Exp	38	18	27	51	23	38
2020-10	Exp	39	25	27	51	26	38
2020-09	Rec	44	47	27	53	27	38
2020-07	Rec	41	25	27	53	32	38
2020-04	Exp	38	12	27	52	27	38
2020-02	Exp	47	27	27	54	67	38
2019-11	Exp	40	20	27	52	38	38
2019-10	Rec	41	25	27	52	35	38
2019-08	Rec	45	26	27	57	54	38
2019-05	Rec	46	46	27	55	40	38
2019-03	Exp	46	42	27	55	44	38
2019-01	Exp	43	25	27	55	43	38

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023