Rankings/Lubbock, TX

Lubbock, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31180Compare

Risk Rank: #199 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— -2

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lubbock's housing market shows average risk, ranking 199th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Lubbock experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap76

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp39

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp39

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-5.7%p41

Days on Market YoY

-13.5%p24

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.1%p62

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.6%p36

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-4.9%p39

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.05p76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p39

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.0%p27

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$31Kp39

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 58.3%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	42	3	63	36	28	38
2025-12	Exp	54	36	86	39	42	38
2025-10	Exp	50	52	27	40	67	47
2025-08	Rec	45	42	27	40	45	47
2025-06	Rec	38	24	27	39	19	47
2025-04	Exp	42	23	27	40	49	47
2025-02	Exp	43	21	27	42	53	47
2025-01	Rec	40	22	27	42	31	47
2024-11	Rec	41	4	27	41	58	47
2024-10	Hyp	41	3	27	41	57	47
2024-09	Rec	38	5	27	45	34	47
2024-08	Ress	37	7	27	45	25	47
2024-06	Ress	37	11	27	46	24	47
2024-03	Ress	36	4	27	49	22	47
2024-02	Hyp	35	3	27	49	13	47
2023-12	Hyp	42	18	27	68	20	47
2023-09	Hyp	41	8	27	65	29	47
2023-06	Hyp	49	25	27	69	59	47
2023-03	Ress	54	47	27	73	62	47
2023-01	Ress	55	42	27	73	72	47
2022-10	Ress	57	60	27	58	79	47
2022-07	Ress	46	43	27	56	31	47
2022-06	Hyp	46	32	27	56	45	47
2022-04	Exp	47	33	27	56	50	47
2022-02	Exp	47	44	27	59	38	47
2022-01	Rec	47	45	27	59	36	47
2021-11	Rec	41	27	27	46	32	43
2021-10	Exp	41	25	27	46	34	43
2021-08	Exp	48	30	27	50	72	43
2021-05	Exp	48	25	27	51	73	43
2021-04	Rec	47	27	27	51	67	43
2021-02	Rec	39	15	27	50	29	43
2020-12	Exp	38	18	27	51	23	38
2020-10	Exp	39	25	27	51	26	38
2020-09	Rec	44	47	27	53	27	38
2020-07	Rec	41	25	27	53	32	38
2020-04	Exp	38	12	27	52	27	38
2020-02	Exp	47	27	27	54	67	38
2019-11	Exp	40	20	27	52	38	38
2019-10	Rec	41	25	27	52	35	38
2019-08	Rec	45	26	27	57	54	38
2019-05	Rec	46	46	27	55	40	38
2019-03	Exp	46	42	27	55	44	38
2019-01	Exp	43	25	27	55	43	38

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023