Rankings/Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31140Compare

Risk Rank: #51 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Louisville/Jefferson County's housing market shows average risk, ranking 51st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Louisville/Jefferson County experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+23% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp65

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp63

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+23% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+23.0%p73

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.8%p46

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+5.9%p63

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.59p55

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p34

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.1%p65

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$62Kp85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 30%

6 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Louisville/Jefferson County's 12 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low5.6

12 of 12 counties scored

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Oldham County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Jefferson County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Oldham CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	5.1%	27	82	91
Spencer County<5%	70	Elevated	1.5%	73	100	18
Floyd County	57	Elevated	5.9%	45	91	73
Clark County	54	Average	9.1%	36	0	82
Meade County<5%	52	Average	2.2%	91	64	9
Bullitt County	50	Average	6.1%	9	73	55
Washington County<5%	50	Average	2.1%	100	55	45
Nelson County<5%	48	Average	3.5%	82	18	36
Jefferson CountyStabilizer	48	Average	57.0%	55	27	100
Henry County<5%	36	Below Average	1.2%	64	45	0
Shelby County<5%	36	Below Average	3.6%	0	9	64
Harrison County<5%	27	Below Average	2.9%	18	36	27

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	50	52	24	35	58	82
2025-09	Hyp	46	59	24	35	23	82
2025-06	Hyp	50	59	24	33	49	82
2025-03	Hyp	58	90	24	38	65	82
2024-12	Rec	58	78	24	35	75	82
2024-11	Hyp	54	75	24	35	56	82
2024-09	Hyp	50	66	24	33	47	82
2024-08	Ress	49	66	24	33	40	82
2024-06	Ress	46	44	24	31	42	82
2024-04	Hyp	47	35	24	31	57	82
2024-03	Exp	47	36	24	31	57	82
2024-01	Exp	45	43	24	31	41	82
2023-10	Exp	50	40	24	40	62	82
2023-08	Rec	50	41	24	39	60	82
2023-06	Rec	51	62	24	41	47	82
2023-04	Hyp	49	54	24	41	42	82
2023-02	Ress	47	37	24	40	48	82
2022-12	Ress	46	42	24	30	44	82
2022-10	Hyp	44	38	24	30	42	82
2022-08	Ress	44	18	24	27	59	82
2022-06	Ress	44	19	24	27	58	82
2022-05	Hyp	44	17	24	27	63	82
2022-04	Exp	43	17	24	27	56	82
2022-02	Rec	46	22	24	30	66	82
2021-12	Rec	48	25	24	34	67	91
2021-11	Exp	48	24	24	34	68	91
2021-09	Exp	47	21	24	35	60	91
2021-06	Exp	44	28	24	36	34	91
2021-04	Rec	42	27	24	36	23	91
2021-02	Rec	45	31	24	37	38	91
2021-01	Exp	45	34	24	37	34	91
2020-11	Exp	43	56	24	38	43	49
2020-09	Rec	41	42	24	38	45	49
2020-07	Rec	42	38	24	38	53	49
2020-04	Exp	46	49	24	38	69	49
2020-02	Exp	44	52	24	38	51	49
2020-01	Rec	46	54	24	38	62	49
2019-11	Rec	51	38	24	37	61	93
2019-08	Rec	54	52	24	39	64	93
2019-05	Exp	54	48	24	39	71	93
2019-03	Exp	52	40	24	38	69	93
2019-01	Exp	52	38	24	38	67	93

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022