Rankings/Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 31140Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Louisville/Jefferson County experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Louisville/Jefferson County's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is not yet assessed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p82 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p65 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p63 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+23% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+23.0%p73

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum48

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth63

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita56

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability36

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment65

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.3%	p48
Permit Growth	+5.9%	p63
Permits/1K Pop	4.59	p56
Affordability	0.26	p36
Employment	-0.1%	p65
Net AGI Migration	-$62K	p82

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+23.0%

Days on Market YoY+3.9%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 7 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Louisville/Jefferson County's 12 counties show moderate divergence — Floyd County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Shelby County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.5

12 of 12 counties scored

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Floyd County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Shelby County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Floyd CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	8.3%	45	91	73
Oldham County	67	Elevated	8.3%	27	82	91
Washington County	67	Elevated	8.3%	100	55	45
Spencer County	64	Elevated	8.3%	73	100	18
Jefferson County	61	Elevated	8.3%	55	27	100
Meade County	55	Average	8.3%	91	64	9
Bullitt County	46	Average	8.3%	9	73	55
Nelson County	45	Below Average	8.3%	82	18	36
Clark County	39	Below Average	8.3%	36	0	82
Henry County	36	Below Average	8.3%	64	45	0
Harrison County	27	Below Average	8.3%	18	36	27
Shelby CountyStabilizer	24	Low Risk	8.3%	0	9	64

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	50	52	24	35	58	82
2025-09	Hyp	46	59	24	35	23	82
2025-06	Hyp	50	59	24	33	49	82
2025-03	Hyp	58	90	24	38	65	82
2024-12	Rec	58	78	24	35	75	82
2024-11	Hyp	54	75	24	35	56	82
2024-09	Hyp	50	66	24	33	47	82
2024-08	Ress	49	66	24	33	40	82
2024-06	Ress	46	44	24	31	42	82
2024-04	Hyp	47	35	24	31	57	82
2024-03	Exp	47	36	24	31	57	82
2024-01	Exp	45	43	24	31	41	82
2023-10	Exp	50	40	24	40	62	82
2023-08	Rec	50	41	24	39	60	82
2023-06	Rec	51	62	24	41	47	82
2023-04	Hyp	49	54	24	41	42	82
2023-02	Ress	47	37	24	40	48	82
2022-12	Ress	46	42	24	30	44	82
2022-10	Hyp	44	38	24	30	42	82
2022-08	Ress	44	18	24	27	59	82
2022-06	Ress	44	19	24	27	58	82
2022-05	Hyp	44	17	24	27	63	82
2022-04	Exp	43	17	24	27	56	82
2022-02	Rec	46	22	24	30	66	82
2021-12	Rec	48	25	24	34	67	91
2021-11	Exp	48	24	24	34	68	91
2021-09	Exp	47	21	24	35	60	91
2021-06	Exp	44	28	24	36	34	91
2021-04	Rec	42	27	24	36	23	91
2021-02	Rec	45	31	24	37	38	91
2021-01	Exp	45	34	24	37	34	91
2020-11	Exp	43	56	24	38	43	49
2020-09	Rec	41	42	24	38	45	49
2020-07	Rec	42	38	24	38	53	49
2020-04	Exp	46	49	24	38	69	49
2020-02	Exp	44	52	24	38	51	49
2020-01	Rec	46	54	24	38	62	49
2019-11	Rec	51	38	24	37	61	93
2019-08	Rec	54	52	24	39	64	93
2019-05	Exp	54	48	24	39	71	93
2019-03	Exp	52	40	24	38	69	93
2019-01	Exp	52	38	24	38	67	93

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022