Rankings/Longview, TX

Longview, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 30980Compare

Risk Rank: #262 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -18

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Longview's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 262nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Longview experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up +1% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp80

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump38

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up +1% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+17.5%p67

Days on Market YoY

+1.2%p50

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p66

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.3%p38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-25.1%p12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.84p2

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p80

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.1%p19

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$15Kp44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-25.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 17.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Longview's counties diverge significantly — Gregg County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Harrison County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High19.3Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Longview, TX shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Gregg County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Harrison County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Gregg CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	43.1%	100	0	100
Upshur County	58	Elevated	14.6%	33	100	33
Rusk County	34	Below Average	18.2%	67	67	0
Harrison CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	24.1%	0	33	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	36	35	16	79	36	47
2025-09	Rec	44	51	16	79	66	47
2025-08	Hyp	42	63	16	79	41	47
2025-06	Rec	42	47	16	79	58	47
2025-05	Ress	41	34	16	79	66	47
2025-03	Hyp	49	54	16	80	94	47
2025-01	Hyp	46	50	16	80	82	47
2024-10	Hyp	54	81	16	80	94	47
2024-07	Hyp	41	6	16	75	98	47
2024-05	Ress	49	49	16	79	97	47
2024-03	Ress	51	62	16	79	96	47
2023-12	Ress	42	22	16	69	97	47
2023-09	Hyp	51	74	16	76	88	47
2023-07	Hyp	45	88	16	76	41	47
2023-04	Ress	44	86	16	73	35	47
2023-02	Ress	41	86	16	72	20	47
2022-12	Hyp	40	87	16	68	15	47
2022-11	Ress	41	85	16	68	24	47
2022-09	Ress	40	72	16	63	41	47
2022-08	Hyp	42	73	16	63	51	47
2022-07	Rec	40	74	16	63	36	47
2022-06	Hyp	40	61	16	59	54	47
2022-05	Exp	38	60	16	59	44	47
2022-03	Rec	40	63	16	61	46	47
2022-01	Rec	39	47	16	61	59	47
2021-12	Exp	41	41	16	64	68	51
2021-10	Exp	36	41	16	64	39	51
2021-07	Exp	41	30	16	61	85	51
2021-05	Rec	43	23	16	64	99	51
2021-03	Rec	45	51	16	68	82	51
2021-02	Exp	43	41	16	68	79	51
2020-12	Exp	42	43	16	61	73	53
2020-11	Rec	44	45	16	61	82	53
2020-09	Rec	41	26	16	60	85	53
2020-06	Rec	35	21	16	59	58	53
2020-03	Rec	41	25	16	61	86	53
2019-12	Rec	36	19	16	61	60	54
2019-11	Exp	32	20	16	61	35	54
2019-09	Exp	30	11	16	59	36	54
2019-08	Rec	32	14	16	59	42	54
2019-06	Rec	39	50	16	62	47	54
2019-05	Exp	38	51	16	62	39	54
2019-03	Exp	40	65	16	63	38	54
2019-01	Exp	39	70	16	63	27	54

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023