Rankings/Longview, TX

Longview, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 30980Compare

Risk Rank: #138 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +9

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Longview's housing market shows average risk, ranking 138th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Longview experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp79

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp68

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump64

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-0.7%p48

Days on Market YoY

+3.1%p54

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p53

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.2%p64

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.5%p40

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.88p2

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p79

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.4%p68

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$15Kp44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-7.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 17.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Longview's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Harrison County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Rusk County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.1Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Longview, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Harrison County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Rusk County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Harrison CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	24.1%	100	67	67
Gregg County	58	Elevated	43.1%	0	33	100
Rusk CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	18.2%	33	100	0
Upshur County	33	Below Average	14.6%	67	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	32	38	12	80	19	44
2025-11	Rec	36	35	16	79	36	47
2025-09	Rec	44	51	16	79	66	47
2025-08	Hyp	42	63	16	79	41	47
2025-06	Rec	42	47	16	79	58	47
2025-05	Ress	41	34	16	79	66	47
2025-03	Hyp	49	54	16	80	94	47
2025-01	Hyp	46	50	16	80	82	47
2024-10	Hyp	54	81	16	80	94	47
2024-07	Hyp	41	6	16	75	98	47
2024-05	Ress	49	49	16	79	97	47
2024-03	Ress	51	62	16	79	96	47
2023-12	Ress	42	22	16	69	97	47
2023-09	Hyp	51	74	16	76	88	47
2023-07	Hyp	45	88	16	76	41	47
2023-04	Ress	44	86	16	73	35	47
2023-02	Ress	41	86	16	72	20	47
2022-12	Hyp	40	87	16	68	15	47
2022-11	Ress	41	85	16	68	24	47
2022-09	Ress	40	72	16	63	41	47
2022-08	Hyp	42	73	16	63	51	47
2022-07	Rec	40	74	16	63	36	47
2022-06	Hyp	40	61	16	59	54	47
2022-05	Exp	38	60	16	59	44	47
2022-03	Rec	40	63	16	61	46	47
2022-01	Rec	39	47	16	61	59	47
2021-12	Exp	41	41	16	64	68	51
2021-10	Exp	36	41	16	64	39	51
2021-07	Exp	41	30	16	61	85	51
2021-05	Rec	43	23	16	64	99	51
2021-03	Rec	45	51	16	68	82	51
2021-02	Exp	43	41	16	68	79	51
2020-12	Exp	42	43	16	61	73	53
2020-11	Rec	44	45	16	61	82	53
2020-09	Rec	41	26	16	60	85	53
2020-06	Rec	35	21	16	59	58	53
2020-03	Rec	41	25	16	61	86	53
2019-12	Rec	36	19	16	61	60	54
2019-11	Exp	32	20	16	61	35	54
2019-09	Exp	30	11	16	59	36	54
2019-08	Rec	32	14	16	59	42	54
2019-06	Rec	39	50	16	62	47	54
2019-05	Exp	38	51	16	62	39	54
2019-03	Exp	40	65	16	63	38	54
2019-01	Exp	39	70	16	63	27	54

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023