Rankings/Longview, TX

Longview, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 30980Compare

Risk Rank: #276 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -18

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Longview experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Longview's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 276th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by affordability and migration. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p79 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Migration

p48 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p34 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up +1% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+17.5%p67

Days on Market YoY

+1.2%p50

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum34

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita2

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability79

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment19

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.4%	p34
Permit Growth	-25.1%	p12
Permits/1K Pop	0.84	p2
Affordability	0.31	p79
Employment	+1.1%	p19
Net AGI Migration	+$18K	p48

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-25.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+17.5%

Days on Market YoY+1.2%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Longview's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Gregg County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Harrison County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.5Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Longview, TX shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Gregg County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Harrison County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Gregg CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	100	0	100
Upshur County	55	Average	25.0%	33	100	33
Rusk County	45	Below Average	25.0%	67	67	0
Harrison CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	25.0%	0	33	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	36	35	16	79	36	47
2025-09	Rec	44	51	16	79	66	47
2025-08	Hyp	42	63	16	79	41	47
2025-06	Rec	42	47	16	79	58	47
2025-05	Ress	41	34	16	79	66	47
2025-03	Hyp	49	54	16	80	94	47
2025-01	Hyp	46	50	16	80	82	47
2024-10	Hyp	54	81	16	80	94	47
2024-07	Hyp	41	6	16	75	98	47
2024-05	Ress	49	49	16	79	97	47
2024-03	Ress	51	62	16	79	96	47
2023-12	Ress	42	22	16	69	97	47
2023-09	Hyp	51	74	16	76	88	47
2023-07	Hyp	45	88	16	76	41	47
2023-04	Ress	44	86	16	73	35	47
2023-02	Ress	41	86	16	72	20	47
2022-12	Hyp	40	87	16	68	15	47
2022-11	Ress	41	85	16	68	24	47
2022-09	Ress	40	72	16	63	41	47
2022-08	Hyp	42	73	16	63	51	47
2022-07	Rec	40	74	16	63	36	47
2022-06	Hyp	40	61	16	59	54	47
2022-05	Exp	38	60	16	59	44	47
2022-03	Rec	40	63	16	61	46	47
2022-01	Rec	39	47	16	61	59	47
2021-12	Exp	41	41	16	64	68	51
2021-10	Exp	36	41	16	64	39	51
2021-07	Exp	41	30	16	61	85	51
2021-05	Rec	43	23	16	64	99	51
2021-03	Rec	45	51	16	68	82	51
2021-02	Exp	43	41	16	68	79	51
2020-12	Exp	42	43	16	61	73	53
2020-11	Rec	44	45	16	61	82	53
2020-09	Rec	41	26	16	60	85	53
2020-06	Rec	35	21	16	59	58	53
2020-03	Rec	41	25	16	61	86	53
2019-12	Rec	36	19	16	61	60	54
2019-11	Exp	32	20	16	61	35	54
2019-09	Exp	30	11	16	59	36	54
2019-08	Rec	32	14	16	59	42	54
2019-06	Rec	39	50	16	62	47	54
2019-05	Exp	38	51	16	62	39	54
2019-03	Exp	40	65	16	63	38	54
2019-01	Exp	39	70	16	63	27	54

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022