Rankings/Logan, UT-ID

Logan, UT-ID

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 30860Compare

Risk Rank: #19 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Logan has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recovery.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Logan's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 19th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p81 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p80 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p66 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+12.1%p61

Days on Market YoY

+1.3%p50

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth66

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita81

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability80

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration49

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p57
Permit Growth	+6.6%	p66
Permits/1K Pop	7.59	p81
Affordability	0.32	p80
Employment	+0.3%	p49
Net AGI Migration	+$16K	p49

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+12.1%

Days on Market YoY+1.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	63	50	56	80	67	49
2025-09	Exp	63	47	56	80	68	49
2025-06	Exp	53	38	56	80	20	49
2025-03	Exp	48	19	56	78	6	49
2024-12	Exp	59	62	56	81	29	49
2024-09	Exp	50	23	56	79	19	49
2024-06	Exp	63	23	56	82	89	49
2024-03	Exp	60	7	56	78	94	49
2023-12	Exp	56	3	56	58	92	49
2023-09	Exp	60	15	56	66	97	49
2023-06	Exp	58	5	56	62	97	49
2023-03	Exp	62	24	56	68	100	49
2022-12	Exp	68	52	56	83	92	49
2022-09	Exp	70	83	56	83	71	49
2022-06	Exp	70	88	56	82	69	49
2022-03	Exp	67	98	56	82	38	49
2021-12	Exp	68	98	56	86	45	49
2021-09	Exp	64	98	56	86	20	49
2021-06	Exp	61	97	56	80	9	49
2021-03	Exp	60	97	56	78	1	49
2020-12	Rec	62	97	56	78	1	61
2020-10	Rec	62	97	56	78	1	61
2020-07	Exp	59	89	56	73	0	61
2020-05	Exp	59	85	56	73	1	61
2020-04	Rec	59	85	56	73	0	61
2020-02	Rec	68	85	56	72	57	61
2020-01	Exp	62	81	56	72	22	61
2019-11	Exp	59	85	56	70	6	58
2019-08	Exp	61	97	56	69	7	58
2019-07	Rec	62	98	56	69	9	58
2019-05	Rec	62	96	56	69	11	58
2019-02	Hyp	61	96	56	68	11	58
2019-01	Hyp	62	96	56	68	12	58

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022