Rankings/Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 30780Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -7

30score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Little Rock's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Little Rock experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap44

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump29

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+15.6%p66

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p75

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.3%p29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-17.2%p19

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.55p44

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.1%p24

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$14Kp45

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-17.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 34.4%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Little Rock's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Pulaski County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Lonoke County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.0Limited data

5 of 6 counties scored

Little Rock, AR shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Pulaski County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Lonoke County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pulaski CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	53.4%	25	100	100
Faulkner County	62	Elevated	17.1%	75	0	75
Perry CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Grant County<5%	44	Below Average	2.4%	100	75	0
Saline County	44	Below Average	17.0%	50	25	50
Lonoke CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	10.1%	0	50	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	37	36	33	22	39	45
2025-12	Exp	42	32	84	22	20	45
2025-10	Rec	39	56	42	22	25	47
2025-08	Rec	37	39	42	22	27	47
2025-07	Hyp	36	31	42	22	27	47
2025-05	Hyp	34	18	42	21	34	47
2025-04	Ress	33	19	42	21	25	47
2025-02	Ress	40	54	42	25	31	47
2025-01	Hyp	41	57	42	25	29	47
2024-11	Hyp	35	20	42	22	36	47
2024-08	Ress	37	41	42	24	23	47
2024-06	Ress	36	37	42	24	22	47
2024-03	Ress	39	32	42	24	43	47
2023-12	Ress	42	57	42	24	35	47
2023-09	Hyp	40	53	42	23	33	47
2023-08	Rec	41	55	42	23	36	47
2023-06	Hyp	43	61	42	24	40	47
2023-04	Hyp	43	66	42	24	37	47
2023-03	Ress	43	67	42	24	33	47
2023-01	Ress	43	64	42	24	38	47
2022-10	Ress	41	43	42	31	39	47
2022-09	Exp	39	37	42	29	33	47
2022-08	Ress	41	43	42	29	40	47
2022-06	Exp	39	29	42	27	46	47
2022-04	Exp	40	30	42	27	51	47
2022-01	Exp	38	20	42	28	46	47
2021-10	Exp	42	28	42	28	33	79
2021-07	Exp	43	15	42	27	54	79
2021-04	Rec	46	14	42	26	73	79
2021-02	Rec	40	18	42	28	32	79
2020-11	Rec	38	19	42	22	23	82
2020-08	Rec	39	18	42	23	28	82
2020-05	Rec	37	12	42	24	22	82
2020-04	Exp	37	11	42	24	22	82
2020-02	Exp	50	20	42	25	89	82
2019-11	Rec	47	13	42	24	85	77
2019-09	Rec	49	16	42	26	92	77
2019-06	Rec	45	23	42	26	58	77
2019-03	Exp	39	12	42	27	34	77
2019-01	Exp	42	28	42	27	32	77

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023