Rankings/Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR

NeutralTier 1CBSA 30780Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +7

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Little Rock experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Little Rock's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and permits per capita. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p84 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p53 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p48 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.2%p60

Days on Market YoY

-3.3%p41

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p72

Months in status34

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum46

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth84

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita53

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment20

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration48

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.2%	p46
Permit Growth	+23.3%	p84
Permits/1K Pop	4.11	p53
Affordability	0.24	p24
Employment	+1.0%	p20
Net AGI Migration	+$19K	p48

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+23.3%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+11.2%

Days on Market YoY-3.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Little Rock's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Faulkner County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Grant County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.6

6 of 6 counties scored

Little Rock, AR shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Faulkner County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Grant County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Faulkner CountyRisk Driver	73	Elevated	16.7%	80	60	80
Perry County	60	Elevated	16.7%	100	80	0
Pulaski County	53	Average	16.7%	40	20	100
Saline County	53	Average	16.7%	20	100	40
Lonoke County	40	Below Average	16.7%	60	0	60
Grant CountyStabilizer	20	Low Risk	16.7%	0	40	20

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	40	52	42	22	32	47
2025-10	Rec	39	56	42	22	25	47
2025-08	Rec	37	39	42	22	27	47
2025-07	Hyp	36	31	42	22	27	47
2025-05	Hyp	34	18	42	21	34	47
2025-04	Ress	33	19	42	21	25	47
2025-02	Ress	40	54	42	25	31	47
2025-01	Hyp	41	57	42	25	29	47
2024-11	Hyp	35	20	42	22	36	47
2024-08	Ress	37	41	42	24	23	47
2024-06	Ress	36	37	42	24	22	47
2024-03	Ress	39	32	42	24	43	47
2023-12	Ress	42	57	42	24	35	47
2023-09	Hyp	40	53	42	23	33	47
2023-08	Rec	41	55	42	23	36	47
2023-06	Hyp	43	61	42	24	40	47
2023-04	Hyp	43	66	42	24	37	47
2023-03	Ress	43	67	42	24	33	47
2023-01	Ress	43	64	42	24	38	47
2022-10	Ress	41	43	42	31	39	47
2022-09	Exp	39	37	42	29	33	47
2022-08	Ress	41	43	42	29	40	47
2022-06	Exp	39	29	42	27	46	47
2022-04	Exp	40	30	42	27	51	47
2022-01	Exp	38	20	42	28	46	47
2021-10	Exp	42	28	42	28	33	79
2021-07	Exp	43	15	42	27	54	79
2021-04	Rec	46	14	42	26	73	79
2021-02	Rec	40	18	42	28	32	79
2020-11	Rec	38	19	42	22	23	82
2020-08	Rec	39	18	42	23	28	82
2020-05	Rec	37	12	42	24	22	82
2020-04	Exp	37	11	42	24	22	82
2020-02	Exp	50	20	42	25	89	82
2019-11	Rec	47	13	42	24	85	77
2019-09	Rec	49	16	42	26	92	77
2019-06	Rec	45	23	42	26	58	77
2019-03	Exp	39	12	42	27	34	77
2019-01	Exp	42	28	42	27	32	77

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022