Rankings/Lincoln, NE

Lincoln, NE

NeutralTier 1CBSA 30700Compare

Risk Rank: #211 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -4

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lincoln's housing market shows average risk, ranking 211th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Lincoln experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp79

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap68

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp37

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+15.5%p65

Days on Market YoY

+5.4%p59

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p86

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.5%p21

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.6%p24

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.81p68

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p37

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.1%p24

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$38Kp79

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 23.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	47	27	40	37	31	79
2025-12	Ress	65	61	79	36	59	79
2025-11	Hyp	54	62	38	38	54	65
2025-09	Rec	52	62	38	38	43	65
2025-07	Rec	49	69	38	38	18	65
2025-05	Ress	46	48	38	37	22	65
2025-04	Hyp	46	43	38	37	28	65
2025-02	Hyp	48	43	38	37	39	65
2024-12	Exp	54	65	38	39	49	65
2024-11	Rec	57	71	38	39	65	65
2024-09	Rec	54	59	38	38	55	65
2024-08	Hyp	51	44	38	38	53	65
2024-06	Hyp	55	41	38	39	81	65
2024-05	Exp	50	35	38	39	60	65
2024-03	Exp	49	25	38	38	63	65
2024-02	Rec	51	33	38	38	65	65
2023-12	Rec	46	28	38	37	39	65
2023-11	Hyp	45	32	38	37	31	65
2023-09	Hyp	52	63	38	41	38	65
2023-08	Rec	54	69	38	41	47	65
2023-06	Rec	55	88	38	44	29	65
2023-04	Hyp	55	82	38	44	34	65
2023-02	Ress	54	63	38	41	47	65
2022-12	Ress	57	54	38	43	77	65
2022-11	Rec	58	54	38	43	80	65
2022-09	Ress	54	31	38	39	86	65
2022-07	Hyp	54	18	38	39	95	65
2022-06	Exp	54	17	38	41	94	65
2022-05	Hyp	54	19	38	41	97	65
2022-04	Rec	54	19	38	41	95	65
2022-02	Rec	57	36	38	40	96	65
2021-11	Exp	54	30	38	32	90	68
2021-09	Exp	58	53	38	36	90	68
2021-06	Rec	58	54	38	35	86	68
2021-04	Rec	55	35	38	35	90	68
2021-03	Exp	48	23	38	34	56	68
2021-01	Exp	50	33	38	34	58	68
2020-10	Rec	49	26	38	35	49	81
2020-08	Rec	44	11	38	34	35	81
2020-05	Exp	46	22	38	39	29	81
2020-03	Exp	45	12	38	38	33	81
2020-02	Rec	48	12	38	38	53	81
2019-12	Rec	48	25	38	39	52	66
2019-11	Exp	50	30	38	39	64	66
2019-09	Exp	54	35	38	42	76	66
2019-08	Rec	52	25	38	42	78	66
2019-06	Rec	54	33	38	42	77	66
2019-03	Hyp	59	51	38	43	88	66
2019-02	Rec	56	51	38	43	73	66
2019-01	Rec	52	47	38	43	49	66

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023