US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Lexington Park, MD

Lexington Park, MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 30500Compare
Risk Rank: #148 of 287Month: 2025-12
49score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lexington Park's housing market shows average risk, ranking 148th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp100
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permit Growthp82
YoY permit change
Price Momentump55
12-month HPI change
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumNeutral
+3.3%p55

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk
+19.9%p82

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg
2.10p21

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk
0.15p0

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk
-4.1%p100

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg
+$39Kp36

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+191 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.92High
Completion-Permit Divergence
+1.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1
Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate
Largest SectorProfessional & Technical 22.3%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2026-01
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2023