US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Lexington Park, MD

Lexington Park, MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 30500Compare
Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12
48score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Lexington Park's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is not yet assessed and valuation is not yet assessed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment
p100 (highest risk decile)
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permit Growth
p82 (elevated risk)
YoY permit change
Price Momentum
p56 (moderate)
12-month HPI change
Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum56

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth82

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita21

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability0

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment100

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration30

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

MetricValuePctile
Price Momentum+2.8%p56
Permit Growth+19.9%p82
Permits/1K Pop2.10p21
Affordability0.15p0
Employment-4.1%p100
Net AGI Migration+$75Kp30
National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+189 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.91High
Completion-Permit Divergence
-3.2 ppNormal
Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q3
Permits2025-12
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2022