Rankings/Lexington-Fayette, KY

Lexington-Fayette, KY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 30460Compare

Risk Rank: #43 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +10

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lexington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 43rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Lexington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump87

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp70

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.1%p47

Days on Market YoY

+2.3%p52

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p70

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.3%p87

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-6.1%p42

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.30p52

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p70

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p23

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$74Kp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-6.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 29.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Lexington's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Jessamine County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Woodford County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.1

6 of 6 counties scored

Lexington, KY shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Jessamine County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Woodford County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bourbon County<5%	75	Elevated	3.9%	80	80	80
Jessamine CountyRisk Driver	65	Elevated	10.4%	20	100	40
Clark County	50	Average	7.1%	100	60	0
Fayette County	50	Average	62.0%	60	40	100
Scott County	35	Below Average	11.4%	40	0	20
Woodford CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	5.2%	0	20	60

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	62	78	48	67	39	89
2025-10	Hyp	59	76	30	67	47	85
2025-08	Rec	54	75	30	67	18	85
2025-06	Rec	48	52	30	64	9	85
2025-05	Ress	50	57	30	64	12	85
2025-04	Hyp	52	55	30	64	28	85
2025-02	Hyp	59	68	30	64	57	85
2024-12	Exp	56	54	30	63	51	85
2024-11	Hyp	55	47	30	63	55	85
2024-10	Rec	53	46	30	63	41	85
2024-08	Hyp	52	60	30	64	23	85
2024-06	Hyp	55	63	30	63	36	85
2024-05	Exp	54	65	30	63	32	85
2024-03	Exp	53	72	30	62	20	85
2024-02	Rec	55	79	30	62	24	85
2023-12	Rec	55	85	30	56	21	85
2023-11	Exp	55	84	30	56	24	85
2023-09	Exp	52	80	30	53	13	85
2023-08	Rec	53	81	30	53	16	85
2023-06	Rec	53	81	30	53	16	85
2023-05	Hyp	53	79	30	53	19	85
2023-03	Hyp	49	64	30	46	17	85
2023-02	Ress	48	68	30	46	10	85
2022-12	Ress	51	71	30	52	19	85
2022-09	Rec	48	61	30	51	13	85
2022-08	Hyp	52	61	30	51	36	85
2022-06	Exp	50	56	30	50	29	85
2022-04	Exp	51	53	30	50	36	85
2022-01	Rec	49	32	30	47	48	85
2021-11	Rec	50	40	30	45	50	82
2021-10	Exp	50	42	30	45	52	82
2021-08	Exp	50	29	30	44	63	82
2021-05	Exp	44	26	30	45	32	82
2021-04	Rec	45	29	30	45	32	82
2021-02	Rec	50	35	30	46	59	82
2021-01	Exp	49	38	30	45	51	82
2020-11	Exp	48	26	30	44	53	84
2020-10	Rec	47	24	30	44	50	84
2020-08	Rec	50	57	30	46	36	84
2020-05	Rec	52	40	30	45	65	84
2020-04	Exp	52	37	30	45	67	84
2020-02	Exp	47	48	30	45	25	84
2020-01	Rec	49	54	30	45	31	84
2019-11	Rec	47	62	30	47	48	47
2019-08	Rec	42	32	30	45	52	47
2019-05	Rec	46	41	30	47	65	47
2019-04	Exp	48	40	30	47	78	47
2019-02	Exp	48	33	30	46	82	47
2019-01	Exp	48	35	30	46	82	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023