Rankings/Lexington-Fayette, KY

Lexington-Fayette, KY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 30460Compare

Risk Rank: #28 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lexington's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 28th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Lexington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+22% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump78

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp67

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+22% YoY) and days on market are up +7% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+21.6%p71

Days on Market YoY

+6.6%p61

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status37

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.4%p78

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-2.8%p48

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.46p54

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p67

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.5%p39

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$74Kp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-2.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 29.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Lexington's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Scott County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Fayette County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.8

6 of 6 counties scored

Lexington, KY shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Scott County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Fayette County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Scott CountyRisk Driver	80	High Risk	11.4%	100	100	20
Jessamine County	50	Average	10.4%	80	0	40
Bourbon County<5%	45	Below Average	3.9%	0	40	80
Woodford County	45	Below Average	5.2%	20	80	60
Clark County	40	Below Average	7.1%	60	60	0
Fayette CountyStabilizer	40	Below Average	62.0%	40	20	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	58	75	30	67	39	85
2025-09	Hyp	57	78	30	67	33	85
2025-08	Rec	54	75	30	67	18	85
2025-06	Rec	48	52	30	64	9	85
2025-05	Ress	50	57	30	64	12	85
2025-04	Hyp	52	55	30	64	28	85
2025-02	Hyp	59	68	30	64	57	85
2024-12	Exp	56	54	30	63	51	85
2024-11	Hyp	55	47	30	63	55	85
2024-10	Rec	53	46	30	63	41	85
2024-08	Hyp	52	60	30	64	23	85
2024-06	Hyp	55	63	30	63	36	85
2024-05	Exp	54	65	30	63	32	85
2024-03	Exp	53	72	30	62	20	85
2024-02	Rec	55	79	30	62	24	85
2023-12	Rec	55	85	30	56	21	85
2023-11	Exp	55	84	30	56	24	85
2023-09	Exp	52	80	30	53	13	85
2023-08	Rec	53	81	30	53	16	85
2023-06	Rec	53	81	30	53	16	85
2023-05	Hyp	53	79	30	53	19	85
2023-03	Hyp	49	64	30	46	17	85
2023-02	Ress	48	68	30	46	10	85
2022-12	Ress	51	71	30	52	19	85
2022-09	Rec	48	61	30	51	13	85
2022-08	Hyp	52	61	30	51	36	85
2022-06	Exp	50	56	30	50	29	85
2022-04	Exp	51	53	30	50	36	85
2022-01	Rec	49	32	30	47	48	85
2021-11	Rec	50	40	30	45	50	82
2021-10	Exp	50	42	30	45	52	82
2021-08	Exp	50	29	30	44	63	82
2021-05	Exp	44	26	30	45	32	82
2021-04	Rec	45	29	30	45	32	82
2021-02	Rec	50	35	30	46	59	82
2021-01	Exp	49	38	30	45	51	82
2020-11	Exp	48	26	30	44	53	84
2020-10	Rec	47	24	30	44	50	84
2020-08	Rec	50	57	30	46	36	84
2020-05	Rec	52	40	30	45	65	84
2020-04	Exp	52	37	30	45	67	84
2020-02	Exp	47	48	30	45	25	84
2020-01	Rec	49	54	30	45	31	84
2019-11	Rec	47	62	30	47	48	47
2019-08	Rec	42	32	30	45	52	47
2019-05	Rec	46	41	30	47	65	47
2019-04	Exp	48	40	30	47	78	47
2019-02	Exp	48	33	30	46	82	47
2019-01	Exp	48	35	30	46	82	47

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023