Rankings/Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV

Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV

NeutralTier 1CBSA 29820Compare

Risk Rank: #194 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Las Vegas experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 4 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Las Vegas's housing market shows average risk, ranking 194th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p89 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p69 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p56 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +29% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+29.2%p79

Days on Market YoY

+14.3%p74

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.1%p93

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum2

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita69

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability52

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment89

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-2.6%	p2
Permit Growth	+1.3%	p56
Permits/1K Pop	5.81	p69
Affordability	0.27	p52
Employment	-0.8%	p89
Net AGI Migration	+$3M	p1

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+1.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+29.2%

Days on Market YoY+14.3%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 16 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	46	5	65	51	83	1
2025-09	Hyp	46	16	65	51	71	1
2025-08	Ress	46	19	65	51	67	1
2025-06	Ress	48	29	65	53	68	1
2025-05	Hyp	48	26	65	53	72	1
2025-03	Ress	62	95	65	64	75	1
2025-01	Ress	61	94	65	64	70	1
2024-12	Hyp	54	74	65	57	58	1
2024-11	Ress	56	78	65	57	64	1
2024-09	Ress	49	72	65	58	27	1
2024-08	Rec	46	68	65	58	14	1
2024-06	Rec	48	79	65	56	19	1
2024-05	Exp	47	83	65	56	9	1
2024-03	Exp	46	69	65	54	17	1
2023-12	Exp	37	23	65	54	7	1
2023-10	Rec	36	15	65	54	11	1
2023-08	Rec	38	10	65	54	29	1
2023-06	Hyp	35	3	65	52	19	1
2023-04	Hyp	35	5	65	52	16	1
2023-01	Ress	35	15	65	56	3	1
2022-11	Ress	39	34	65	63	2	1
2022-10	Hyp	40	41	65	63	2	1
2022-09	Ress	47	74	65	69	2	1
2022-07	Ress	48	78	65	69	1	1
2022-05	Hyp	50	91	65	70	0	1
2022-04	Exp	50	92	65	70	0	1
2022-02	Rec	49	90	65	68	0	1
2021-12	Rec	49	89	65	70	0	1
2021-11	Exp	49	88	65	70	0	1
2021-09	Exp	48	84	65	68	1	1
2021-06	Exp	44	61	65	63	1	1
2021-05	Rec	43	58	65	63	1	1
2021-03	Rec	56	41	65	62	98	1
2020-12	Exp	53	29	65	54	98	3
2020-10	Exp	54	33	65	54	98	3
2020-09	Rec	54	33	65	56	98	3
2020-07	Rec	55	40	65	56	98	3
2020-06	Exp	56	45	65	56	98	3
2020-04	Exp	52	22	65	56	96	3
2020-03	Rec	38	14	65	55	21	3
2020-01	Rec	36	13	65	55	11	3
2019-10	Hyp	38	14	65	56	19	2
2019-08	Hyp	38	21	65	55	13	2
2019-05	Hyp	49	93	65	58	8	2
2019-03	Ress	50	97	65	59	9	2
2019-01	Ress	50	97	65	59	8	2

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022