Rankings/Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV

Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29820Compare

Risk Rank: #272 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -24

24score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Las Vegas's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 272nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Las Vegas experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap58

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp48

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp22

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.4%p52

Days on Market YoY

+10.0%p67

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p66

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.3%p15

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-15.9%p22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.77p58

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p48

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.9%p1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$1Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 23.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	22	10	15	48	3	1
2025-12	Hyp	44	1	56	51	89	1
2025-10	Hyp	46	14	65	51	74	1
2025-08	Ress	46	19	65	51	67	1
2025-06	Ress	48	29	65	53	68	1
2025-05	Hyp	48	26	65	53	72	1
2025-03	Ress	62	95	65	64	75	1
2025-01	Ress	61	94	65	64	70	1
2024-12	Hyp	54	74	65	57	58	1
2024-11	Ress	56	78	65	57	64	1
2024-09	Ress	49	72	65	58	27	1
2024-08	Rec	46	68	65	58	14	1
2024-06	Rec	48	79	65	56	19	1
2024-05	Exp	47	83	65	56	9	1
2024-03	Exp	46	69	65	54	17	1
2023-12	Exp	37	23	65	54	7	1
2023-10	Rec	36	15	65	54	11	1
2023-08	Rec	38	10	65	54	29	1
2023-06	Hyp	35	3	65	52	19	1
2023-04	Hyp	35	5	65	52	16	1
2023-01	Ress	35	15	65	56	3	1
2022-11	Ress	39	34	65	63	2	1
2022-10	Hyp	40	41	65	63	2	1
2022-09	Ress	47	74	65	69	2	1
2022-07	Ress	48	78	65	69	1	1
2022-05	Hyp	50	91	65	70	0	1
2022-04	Exp	50	92	65	70	0	1
2022-02	Rec	49	90	65	68	0	1
2021-12	Rec	49	89	65	70	0	1
2021-11	Exp	49	88	65	70	0	1
2021-09	Exp	48	84	65	68	1	1
2021-06	Exp	44	61	65	63	1	1
2021-05	Rec	43	58	65	63	1	1
2021-03	Rec	56	41	65	62	98	1
2020-12	Exp	53	29	65	54	98	3
2020-10	Exp	54	33	65	54	98	3
2020-09	Rec	54	33	65	56	98	3
2020-07	Rec	55	40	65	56	98	3
2020-06	Exp	56	45	65	56	98	3
2020-04	Exp	52	22	65	56	96	3
2020-03	Rec	38	14	65	55	21	3
2020-01	Rec	36	13	65	55	11	3
2019-10	Hyp	38	14	65	56	19	2
2019-08	Hyp	38	21	65	55	13	2
2019-05	Hyp	49	93	65	58	8	2
2019-03	Ress	50	97	65	59	9	2
2019-01	Ress	50	97	65	59	8	2

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023