Rankings/Las Cruces, NM

Las Cruces, NM

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29740Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -13

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Las Cruces experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 2 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Las Cruces's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by affordability and price momentum. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p59 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p48 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p47 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +32% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+32.0%p81

Days on Market YoY

+13.8%p73

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p74

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum48

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability59

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment2

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.3%	p48
Permit Growth	-16.1%	p23
Permits/1K Pop	3.63	p47
Affordability	0.28	p59
Employment	+2.5%	p2
Net AGI Migration	+$23K	p44

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-16.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+32.0%

Days on Market YoY+13.8%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	44	40	64	59	2	44
2025-10	Hyp	43	35	64	59	4	44
2025-09	Rec	46	43	64	59	17	44
2025-07	Ress	49	67	64	59	10	44
2025-05	Ress	57	85	64	63	35	44
2025-04	Exp	57	80	64	63	40	44
2025-02	Exp	47	12	64	57	53	44
2024-11	Exp	52	19	64	60	75	44
2024-10	Hyp	55	26	64	60	85	44
2024-09	Rec	40	5	64	58	14	44
2024-08	Exp	40	2	64	58	19	44
2024-06	Exp	45	7	64	60	41	44
2024-03	Exp	52	71	64	65	14	44
2023-12	Rec	44	35	64	65	4	44
2023-10	Rec	46	44	64	65	4	44
2023-09	Ress	58	81	64	72	36	44
2023-08	Rec	54	82	64	72	8	44
2023-06	Rec	46	48	64	64	1	44
2023-05	Ress	47	54	64	64	3	44
2023-03	Rec	59	90	64	69	35	44
2023-01	Rec	55	83	64	69	17	44
2022-12	Exp	59	77	64	74	42	44
2022-10	Exp	67	79	64	74	88	44
2022-07	Exp	62	71	64	73	66	44
2022-06	Rec	64	64	64	70	90	44
2022-04	Rec	56	72	64	70	35	44
2022-03	Exp	52	69	64	70	12	44
2022-01	Exp	52	64	64	70	16	44
2021-12	Rec	54	58	64	79	22	50
2021-10	Rec	54	59	64	79	21	50
2021-09	Hyp	60	68	64	80	43	50
2021-08	Exp	56	68	64	80	22	50
2021-06	Exp	56	40	64	79	49	50
2021-04	Rec	62	31	64	79	96	50
2021-02	Rec	60	50	64	81	60	50
2021-01	Exp	59	51	64	81	55	50
2020-11	Exp	57	59	64	76	51	42
2020-10	Rec	57	69	64	76	41	42
2020-08	Rec	55	55	64	77	39	42
2020-05	Exp	55	59	64	78	35	42
2020-03	Exp	52	46	64	80	28	42
2019-12	Exp	44	7	64	75	26	42
2019-09	Exp	51	34	64	78	34	42
2019-06	Rec	56	62	64	80	34	42
2019-04	Rec	56	43	64	80	53	42
2019-03	Exp	55	50	64	81	43	42
2019-01	Exp	52	35	64	81	36	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022