Laredo, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 29700Compare

Risk Rank: #37 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Laredo's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 37th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Laredo experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-7.4% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump99

12-month HPI change

Migrationp84

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap60

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.4%p58

Days on Market YoY

+1.4%p50

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-7.4%p3

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+9.0%p99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.5%p40

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.98p60

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p60

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.9%p22

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$49Kp84

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-7.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 21.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	56	82	35	55	24	78
2025-09	Exp	53	83	35	55	6	78
2025-07	Exp	57	100	35	55	13	78
2025-05	Rec	42	15	35	44	17	78
2025-03	Rec	37	0	35	38	10	78
2025-02	Hyp	38	1	35	38	10	78
2025-01	Rec	40	12	35	38	14	78
2024-12	Ress	56	95	35	56	11	78
2024-10	Ress	57	90	35	56	19	78
2024-09	Hyp	42	1	35	34	42	78
2024-07	Ress	39	0	35	34	22	78
2024-05	Ress	49	24	35	60	32	78
2024-04	Hyp	48	15	35	60	40	78
2024-02	Rec	40	1	35	45	16	78
2023-12	Rec	42	8	35	40	31	78
2023-11	Ress	41	10	35	40	18	78
2023-09	Hyp	46	38	35	46	18	78
2023-08	Rec	45	32	35	46	14	78
2023-06	Hyp	60	92	35	54	35	78
2023-04	Hyp	58	99	35	54	19	78
2023-03	Ress	55	95	35	46	11	78
2023-01	Ress	55	89	35	46	20	78
2022-10	Rec	55	80	35	40	33	78
2022-08	Ress	58	86	35	43	42	78
2022-07	Hyp	56	84	35	43	36	78
2022-06	Exp	42	24	35	31	22	78
2022-04	Rec	43	16	35	31	33	78
2022-02	Rec	42	16	35	31	31	78
2022-01	Exp	44	16	35	31	40	78
2021-11	Exp	43	7	35	45	30	77
2021-08	Exp	46	5	35	47	49	77
2021-05	Exp	53	4	35	52	90	77
2021-02	Exp	52	6	35	52	80	77
2021-01	Rec	54	18	35	52	77	77
2020-11	Rec	50	16	35	28	81	77
2020-08	Rec	46	3	35	30	71	77
2020-05	Rec	58	86	35	37	50	77
2020-04	Exp	59	94	35	37	47	77
2020-02	Exp	41	3	35	27	42	77
2019-11	Exp	53	85	35	39	26	74
2019-08	Exp	54	95	35	41	22	74
2019-05	Exp	34	4	35	30	4	74
2019-03	Rec	39	16	35	36	14	74
2019-01	Rec	45	43	35	36	21	74

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023