Rankings/Lancaster, PA

Lancaster, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 29540Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +9

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lancaster experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lancaster's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p88 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p63 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Migration

p47 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+9.8%p59

Days on Market YoY

-8.9%p31

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p51

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum88

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth63

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita35

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment14

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration47

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.1%	p88
Permit Growth	+5.8%	p63
Permits/1K Pop	2.83	p35
Affordability	0.24	p20
Employment	+1.3%	p14
Net AGI Migration	+$21K	p47

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+9.8%

Days on Market YoY-8.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	32	84	6	19	15	46
2025-10	Hyp	33	77	6	19	25	46
2025-09	Rec	35	83	6	19	35	46
2025-07	Rec	35	83	6	19	33	46
2025-06	Hyp	35	75	6	17	44	46
2025-04	Rec	38	80	6	17	55	46
2025-03	Ress	31	44	6	14	54	46
2025-02	Hyp	29	35	6	14	50	46
2025-01	Rec	28	29	6	15	51	46
2024-11	Rec	37	62	6	18	68	46
2024-10	Ress	36	73	6	18	52	46
2024-08	Hyp	34	72	6	17	42	46
2024-06	Exp	35	55	6	15	64	46
2024-04	Exp	32	44	6	15	59	46
2024-03	Rec	41	83	6	18	69	46
2024-01	Rec	41	87	6	18	68	46
2023-11	Exp	36	61	6	18	61	46
2023-09	Exp	38	63	6	17	74	46
2023-07	Rec	43	86	6	17	78	46
2023-05	Rec	44	91	6	19	78	46
2023-02	Ress	39	70	6	18	73	46
2022-12	Exp	35	77	6	12	48	46
2022-11	Rec	35	76	6	12	46	46
2022-09	Rec	27	34	6	9	43	46
2022-08	Exp	27	34	6	9	46	46
2022-06	Exp	30	48	6	10	47	46
2022-03	Exp	29	44	6	9	44	46
2022-02	Rec	29	42	6	9	47	46
2021-12	Rec	27	44	6	10	42	38
2021-11	Exp	29	44	6	10	53	38
2021-09	Exp	30	49	6	10	53	38
2021-06	Exp	19	30	6	9	7	38
2021-03	Exp	29	35	6	8	67	38
2020-12	Exp	29	30	6	14	69	31
2020-11	Rec	30	42	6	14	67	31
2020-09	Rec	36	72	6	14	69	31
2020-06	Exp	34	51	6	14	82	31
2020-04	Exp	35	53	6	14	86	31
2020-02	Rec	30	60	6	14	47	31
2019-12	Rec	24	15	6	13	52	34
2019-11	Exp	24	15	6	13	56	34
2019-09	Exp	28	36	6	13	56	34
2019-08	Rec	32	48	6	13	68	34
2019-06	Rec	29	45	6	13	54	34
2019-03	Exp	31	51	6	15	57	34
2019-01	Exp	27	49	6	15	38	34

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022