Rankings/Lancaster, PA

Lancaster, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29540Compare

Risk Rank: #263 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -7

29score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lancaster's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 263rd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Lancaster experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking -16% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump86

12-month HPI change

Migrationp37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp24

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking -16% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.1%p60

Days on Market YoY

-16.1%p21

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.6%p55

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.2%p86

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-33.1%p5

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

2.05p18

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.9%p6

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$36Kp37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-33.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	32	90	2	21	27	37
2025-12	Rec	44	94	62	20	14	37
2025-10	Hyp	33	77	6	19	25	46
2025-09	Rec	35	83	6	19	35	46
2025-07	Rec	35	83	6	19	33	46
2025-06	Hyp	35	75	6	17	44	46
2025-04	Rec	38	80	6	17	55	46
2025-03	Ress	31	44	6	14	54	46
2025-02	Hyp	29	35	6	14	50	46
2025-01	Rec	28	29	6	15	51	46
2024-11	Rec	37	62	6	18	68	46
2024-10	Ress	36	73	6	18	52	46
2024-08	Hyp	34	72	6	17	42	46
2024-06	Exp	35	55	6	15	64	46
2024-04	Exp	32	44	6	15	59	46
2024-03	Rec	41	83	6	18	69	46
2024-01	Rec	41	87	6	18	68	46
2023-11	Exp	36	61	6	18	61	46
2023-09	Exp	38	63	6	17	74	46
2023-07	Rec	43	86	6	17	78	46
2023-05	Rec	44	91	6	19	78	46
2023-02	Ress	39	70	6	18	73	46
2022-12	Exp	35	77	6	12	48	46
2022-11	Rec	35	76	6	12	46	46
2022-09	Rec	27	34	6	9	43	46
2022-08	Exp	27	34	6	9	46	46
2022-06	Exp	30	48	6	10	47	46
2022-03	Exp	29	44	6	9	44	46
2022-02	Rec	29	42	6	9	47	46
2021-12	Rec	27	44	6	10	42	38
2021-11	Exp	29	44	6	10	53	38
2021-09	Exp	30	49	6	10	53	38
2021-06	Exp	19	30	6	9	7	38
2021-03	Exp	29	35	6	8	67	38
2020-12	Exp	29	30	6	14	69	31
2020-11	Rec	30	42	6	14	67	31
2020-09	Rec	36	72	6	14	69	31
2020-06	Exp	34	51	6	14	82	31
2020-04	Exp	35	53	6	14	86	31
2020-02	Rec	30	60	6	14	47	31
2019-12	Rec	24	15	6	13	52	34
2019-11	Exp	24	15	6	13	56	34
2019-09	Exp	28	36	6	13	56	34
2019-08	Rec	32	48	6	13	68	34
2019-06	Rec	29	45	6	13	54	34
2019-03	Exp	31	51	6	15	57	34
2019-01	Exp	27	49	6	15	38	34

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023