Rankings/Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 29460Compare

Risk Rank: #122 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +10

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lakeland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 122nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-10% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Lakeland experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-10% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.1% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump98

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp97

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap86

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-10% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-10.4%p36

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.1%p22

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.5%p98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-28.8%p8

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.58p86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.39p97

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p16

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$598Kp4

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-28.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 13.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	52	96	12	97	12	4
2025-11	Rec	40	1	20	95	22	7
2025-09	Rec	46	1	20	95	59	7
2025-06	Hyp	42	1	20	95	32	7
2025-04	Hyp	44	3	20	95	43	7
2025-01	Hyp	46	5	20	97	54	7
2024-10	Hyp	48	6	20	97	60	7
2024-07	Ress	47	26	20	97	38	7
2024-05	Ress	47	11	20	97	54	7
2024-02	Hyp	49	32	20	98	42	7
2023-12	Hyp	52	61	20	95	36	7
2023-11	Exp	52	62	20	95	31	7
2023-10	Hyp	52	62	20	95	32	7
2023-09	Rec	48	29	20	94	44	7
2023-07	Hyp	48	27	20	94	45	7
2023-05	Hyp	52	67	20	94	30	7
2023-02	Ress	56	93	20	94	26	7
2022-12	Ress	56	93	20	97	21	7
2022-09	Ress	57	96	20	96	29	7
2022-06	Ress	57	94	20	95	29	7
2022-04	Exp	57	94	20	95	32	7
2022-02	Exp	61	91	20	94	59	7
2021-11	Exp	53	84	20	95	16	9
2021-08	Exp	54	84	20	94	22	9
2021-05	Rec	55	80	20	94	33	9
2021-03	Rec	51	85	20	95	1	9
2021-01	Exp	51	85	20	95	1	9
2020-11	Exp	53	96	20	97	1	11
2020-10	Rec	53	96	20	97	1	11
2020-08	Rec	52	88	20	96	1	11
2020-06	Exp	52	92	20	96	0	11
2020-04	Exp	52	91	20	96	0	11
2020-03	Rec	53	96	20	96	1	11
2020-01	Rec	53	95	20	96	2	11
2019-10	Exp	52	85	20	96	5	10
2019-08	Exp	51	81	20	95	5	10
2019-07	Rec	50	78	20	95	4	10
2019-05	Rec	53	90	20	95	7	10
2019-03	Hyp	52	92	20	94	2	10
2019-01	Hyp	53	92	20	94	5	10

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023