Rankings/Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29460Compare

Risk Rank: #244 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

39score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lakeland experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lakeland's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 244th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p95 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p92 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p27 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-3.7%p45

Days on Market YoY

+4.7%p58

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.3%p96

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum1

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita92

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability95

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment27

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration7

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-3.1%	p1
Permit Growth	-24.9%	p12
Permits/1K Pop	9.88	p92
Affordability	0.37	p95
Employment	+0.8%	p27
Net AGI Migration	+$655K	p7

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY-3.7%

Days on Market YoY+4.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	1	20	95	22	7
2025-09	Rec	46	1	20	95	59	7
2025-06	Hyp	42	1	20	95	32	7
2025-04	Hyp	44	3	20	95	43	7
2025-01	Hyp	46	5	20	97	54	7
2024-10	Hyp	48	6	20	97	60	7
2024-07	Ress	47	26	20	97	38	7
2024-05	Ress	47	11	20	97	54	7
2024-02	Hyp	49	32	20	98	42	7
2023-12	Hyp	52	61	20	95	36	7
2023-11	Exp	52	62	20	95	31	7
2023-10	Hyp	52	62	20	95	32	7
2023-09	Rec	48	29	20	94	44	7
2023-07	Hyp	48	27	20	94	45	7
2023-05	Hyp	52	67	20	94	30	7
2023-02	Ress	56	93	20	94	26	7
2022-12	Ress	56	93	20	97	21	7
2022-09	Ress	57	96	20	96	29	7
2022-06	Ress	57	94	20	95	29	7
2022-04	Exp	57	94	20	95	32	7
2022-02	Exp	61	91	20	94	59	7
2021-11	Exp	53	84	20	95	16	9
2021-08	Exp	54	84	20	94	22	9
2021-05	Rec	55	80	20	94	33	9
2021-03	Rec	51	85	20	95	1	9
2021-01	Exp	51	85	20	95	1	9
2020-11	Exp	53	96	20	97	1	11
2020-10	Rec	53	96	20	97	1	11
2020-08	Rec	52	88	20	96	1	11
2020-06	Exp	52	92	20	96	0	11
2020-04	Exp	52	91	20	96	0	11
2020-03	Rec	53	96	20	96	1	11
2020-01	Rec	53	95	20	96	2	11
2019-10	Exp	52	85	20	96	5	10
2019-08	Exp	51	81	20	95	5	10
2019-07	Rec	50	78	20	95	4	10
2019-05	Rec	53	90	20	95	7	10
2019-03	Hyp	52	92	20	94	2	10
2019-01	Hyp	53	92	20	94	5	10

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022