Rankings/Lake Charles, LA

Lake Charles, LA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29340Compare

Risk Rank: #269 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -15

35score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lake Charles experienced a market correction from early 2023 through mid-2023. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 6 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lake Charles's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 269th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 6 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p76 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p62 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p31 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.3%p44

Days on Market YoY

+12.5%p71

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.2%p98

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum62

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth0

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita31

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment11

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration76

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.3%	p62
Permit Growth	-55.8%	p0
Permits/1K Pop	2.52	p31
Affordability	0.25	p31
Employment	+1.3%	p11
Net AGI Migration	-$41K	p76

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-55.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-4.3%

Days on Market YoY+12.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	61	73	85	29	38	76
2025-09	Rec	64	73	85	29	56	76
2025-06	Hyp	47	2	85	20	34	76
2025-04	Rec	53	2	85	20	68	76
2025-02	Exp	52	3	85	30	49	76
2024-12	Exp	50	0	85	26	44	76
2024-09	Exp	53	4	85	28	57	76
2024-07	Rec	50	12	85	28	32	76
2024-05	Rec	53	1	85	29	61	76
2024-04	Exp	49	0	85	29	36	76
2024-02	Exp	62	23	85	45	73	76
2024-01	Rec	64	22	85	45	88	76
2023-11	Rec	59	3	85	29	93	76
2023-09	Hyp	58	0	85	26	98	76
2023-07	Hyp	59	1	85	26	98	76
2023-05	Ress	62	13	85	38	94	76
2023-03	Ress	62	11	85	40	97	76
2023-02	Hyp	63	11	85	40	100	76
2022-12	Hyp	65	16	85	48	100	76
2022-09	Hyp	62	1	85	44	100	76
2022-07	Ress	62	1	85	44	100	76
2022-05	Ress	64	6	85	52	100	76
2022-03	Hyp	62	1	85	51	91	76
2022-01	Exp	55	1	85	51	50	76
2021-11	Exp	49	2	85	52	2	88
2021-08	Exp	66	4	85	56	95	88
2021-06	Rec	65	2	85	58	93	88
2021-04	Rec	66	1	85	58	100	88
2021-02	Exp	68	3	85	68	99	88
2020-12	Exp	70	1	85	81	99	88
2020-11	Rec	70	1	85	81	100	88
2020-09	Rec	71	2	85	85	100	88
2020-06	Exp	77	40	85	88	97	88
2020-04	Exp	71	14	85	88	86	88
2020-01	Rec	72	7	85	88	100	88
2019-11	Rec	72	14	85	90	100	80
2019-10	Exp	73	19	85	90	99	80
2019-08	Exp	70	2	85	89	100	80
2019-07	Rec	70	2	85	89	99	80
2019-05	Rec	72	12	85	90	98	80
2019-03	Hyp	73	16	85	92	98	80
2019-01	Hyp	71	7	85	92	99	80

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022