Rankings/Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN

Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 29200Compare

Risk Rank: #4 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

71score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lafayette experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 3 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lafayette's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 4th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permit growth and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p100 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p99 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p87 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +41% YoY with days on market up +42% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+40.9%p87

Days on Market YoY

+42.3%p93

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.5%p94

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth100

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita99

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment87

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration80

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.2%	p29
Permit Growth	+198.9%	p100
Permits/1K Pop	17.86	p99
Affordability	0.25	p31
Employment	-0.5%	p87
Net AGI Migration	-$56K	p80

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+198.9%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+40.9%

Days on Market YoY+42.3%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 14 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Lafayette's counties diverge significantly — Tippecanoe County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Warren County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High40.8Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Lafayette, IN shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Tippecanoe County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Warren County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Tippecanoe CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	100
Benton CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Carroll County	50	Average	33.3%	50	50	50
Warren CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	52	31	14	30	82	80
2025-09	Ress	55	33	14	30	97	80
2025-07	Ress	47	35	14	30	44	80
2025-04	Hyp	62	75	14	33	92	80
2025-03	Ress	62	78	14	35	90	80
2025-01	Ress	64	83	14	35	96	80
2024-11	Hyp	63	85	14	34	89	80
2024-10	Rec	56	82	14	34	50	80
2024-09	Ress	51	92	14	31	12	80
2024-08	Hyp	51	96	14	31	10	80
2024-06	Ress	65	95	14	30	94	80
2024-04	Ress	63	88	14	30	90	80
2024-03	Hyp	64	88	14	28	95	80
2024-02	Rec	61	92	14	28	76	80
2023-12	Rec	56	96	14	41	28	80
2023-11	Exp	64	95	14	41	74	80
2023-09	Exp	57	76	14	35	59	80
2023-07	Rec	48	80	14	35	4	80
2023-05	Rec	48	79	14	34	6	80
2023-02	Hyp	40	36	14	28	5	80
2023-01	Ress	45	41	14	28	31	80
2022-11	Ress	45	52	14	41	4	80
2022-10	Rec	45	49	14	41	7	80
2022-08	Rec	49	34	14	38	49	80
2022-07	Ress	48	34	14	38	43	80
2022-05	Ress	47	44	14	42	26	80
2022-04	Rec	46	45	14	42	15	80
2022-03	Exp	43	36	14	39	12	80
2022-01	Exp	43	41	14	39	9	80
2021-10	Exp	47	51	14	36	31	74
2021-07	Exp	48	55	14	36	30	74
2021-05	Rec	44	58	14	34	9	74
2021-03	Rec	48	57	14	34	35	74
2021-02	Exp	49	59	14	34	38	74
2020-12	Exp	56	61	14	39	65	79
2020-11	Rec	53	53	14	39	58	79
2020-09	Rec	51	57	14	41	38	79
2020-06	Rec	49	64	14	38	25	79
2020-05	Exp	54	57	14	38	57	79
2020-03	Exp	54	35	14	36	87	79
2020-02	Rec	55	47	14	36	79	79
2019-12	Rec	57	77	14	40	64	74
2019-11	Exp	57	74	14	40	66	74
2019-09	Exp	54	52	14	35	77	74
2019-06	Exp	65	89	14	39	97	74
2019-05	Rec	64	86	14	39	99	74
2019-03	Rec	50	76	14	37	24	74
2019-01	Rec	55	86	14	37	42	74

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022