Rankings/Lafayette, LA

Lafayette, LA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29180Compare

Risk Rank: #250 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -2

35score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lafayette's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 250th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Lafayette experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap58

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp47

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp38

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+8.6%p58

Days on Market YoY

+4.2%p56

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.9%p86

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-1.2%p1

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-6.4%p38

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.77p58

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$53Kp29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-6.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Lafayette's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Acadia Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while St. Martin Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.8Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Lafayette, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Acadia Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while St. Martin Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Acadia ParishRisk Driver	67	Elevated	13.8%	100	67	67
Lafayette Parish	58	Elevated	60.0%	0	33	100
Vermilion Parish	50	Average	13.8%	33	100	0
St. Martin ParishStabilizer	25	Low Risk	12.4%	67	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	40	10	46	47	50	29
2025-12	Rec	46	57	62	52	18	29
2025-10	Exp	45	62	22	56	31	42
2025-08	Exp	49	85	22	56	32	42
2025-05	Rec	35	17	22	49	23	42
2025-03	Rec	33	5	22	49	23	42
2025-02	Hyp	32	7	22	49	15	42
2024-12	Hyp	38	23	22	53	32	42
2024-09	Hyp	37	9	22	49	42	42
2024-08	Rec	32	6	22	49	18	42
2024-07	Hyp	32	6	22	49	14	42
2024-06	Ress	43	32	22	58	46	42
2024-04	Ress	40	13	22	58	46	42
2024-03	Hyp	40	16	22	59	44	42
2024-02	Rec	42	26	22	59	43	42
2024-01	Ress	43	41	22	59	38	42
2023-11	Hyp	42	3	22	54	72	42
2023-09	Hyp	44	2	22	57	81	42
2023-06	Hyp	40	19	22	63	37	42
2023-05	Ress	41	19	22	63	44	42
2023-03	Ress	41	8	22	59	59	42
2022-12	Ress	49	33	22	81	59	42
2022-09	Hyp	42	19	22	81	31	42
2022-08	Exp	47	18	22	81	60	42
2022-06	Exp	50	12	22	81	88	42
2022-03	Exp	44	4	22	82	57	42
2021-12	Exp	39	2	22	61	50	43
2021-09	Exp	38	2	22	63	39	43
2021-06	Exp	38	1	22	69	37	43
2021-05	Rec	44	2	22	69	70	43
2021-03	Rec	43	4	22	76	54	43
2020-12	Rec	41	5	22	68	51	45
2020-09	Rec	46	10	22	70	75	45
2020-06	Rec	45	6	22	73	66	45
2020-03	Exp	50	20	22	74	82	45
2020-01	Exp	49	25	22	74	70	45
2019-10	Rec	47	11	22	74	77	45
2019-08	Rec	50	26	22	78	71	45
2019-05	Rec	42	5	22	77	50	45
2019-02	Rec	42	1	22	77	50	45
2019-01	Rec	42	1	22	77	55	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023