Rankings/Lafayette, LA

Lafayette, LA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 29180Compare

Risk Rank: #231 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -10

39score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lafayette's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 231st of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Lafayette experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +16% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap58

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp57

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump42

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +16% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+6.1%p55

Days on Market YoY

+16.4%p77

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p50

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.0%p42

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.2%p35

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.78p58

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.30p57

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$53Kp29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-7.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Lafayette's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Acadia Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while St. Martin Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.8Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Lafayette, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Acadia Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while St. Martin Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Acadia ParishRisk Driver	67	Elevated	13.8%	100	67	67
Lafayette Parish	58	Elevated	60.0%	0	33	100
Vermilion Parish	50	Average	13.8%	33	100	0
St. Martin ParishStabilizer	25	Low Risk	12.4%	67	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	35	1	38	47	36	29
2025-12	Rec	46	57	62	52	18	29
2025-10	Exp	45	62	22	56	31	42
2025-08	Exp	49	85	22	56	32	42
2025-05	Rec	35	17	22	49	23	42
2025-03	Rec	33	5	22	49	23	42
2025-02	Hyp	32	7	22	49	15	42
2024-12	Hyp	38	23	22	53	32	42
2024-09	Hyp	37	9	22	49	42	42
2024-08	Rec	32	6	22	49	18	42
2024-07	Hyp	32	6	22	49	14	42
2024-06	Ress	43	32	22	58	46	42
2024-04	Ress	40	13	22	58	46	42
2024-03	Hyp	40	16	22	59	44	42
2024-02	Rec	42	26	22	59	43	42
2024-01	Ress	43	41	22	59	38	42
2023-11	Hyp	42	3	22	54	72	42
2023-09	Hyp	44	2	22	57	81	42
2023-06	Hyp	40	19	22	63	37	42
2023-05	Ress	41	19	22	63	44	42
2023-03	Ress	41	8	22	59	59	42
2022-12	Ress	49	33	22	81	59	42
2022-09	Hyp	42	19	22	81	31	42
2022-08	Exp	47	18	22	81	60	42
2022-06	Exp	50	12	22	81	88	42
2022-03	Exp	44	4	22	82	57	42
2021-12	Exp	39	2	22	61	50	43
2021-09	Exp	38	2	22	63	39	43
2021-06	Exp	38	1	22	69	37	43
2021-05	Rec	44	2	22	69	70	43
2021-03	Rec	43	4	22	76	54	43
2020-12	Rec	41	5	22	68	51	45
2020-09	Rec	46	10	22	70	75	45
2020-06	Rec	45	6	22	73	66	45
2020-03	Exp	50	20	22	74	82	45
2020-01	Exp	49	25	22	74	70	45
2019-10	Rec	47	11	22	74	77	45
2019-08	Rec	50	26	22	78	71	45
2019-05	Rec	42	5	22	77	50	45
2019-02	Rec	42	1	22	77	50	45
2019-01	Rec	42	1	22	77	55	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023