Rankings/Lafayette, LA

Lafayette, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 29180Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +15

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Lafayette experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Lafayette's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p79 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p62 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p61 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.6%p52

Days on Market YoY

-5.7%p37

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.5%p28

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum79

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth62

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita61

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability57

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment17

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.1%	p79
Permit Growth	+5.5%	p62
Permits/1K Pop	5.08	p61
Affordability	0.28	p57
Employment	+1.1%	p17
Net AGI Migration	+$28K	p42

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+3.6%

Days on Market YoY-5.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 9 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Lafayette's counties diverge significantly — St. Martin Parish (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Vermilion Parish, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Lafayette, LA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. St. Martin Parish contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Vermilion Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
St. Martin ParishRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	100	67	67
Lafayette Parish	67	Elevated	25.0%	67	33	100
Acadia Parish	44	Below Average	25.0%	0	100	33
Vermilion ParishStabilizer	11	Low Risk	25.0%	33	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	70	22	56	18	42
2025-10	Exp	45	62	22	56	31	42
2025-08	Exp	49	85	22	56	32	42
2025-05	Rec	35	17	22	49	23	42
2025-03	Rec	33	5	22	49	23	42
2025-02	Hyp	32	7	22	49	15	42
2024-12	Hyp	38	23	22	53	32	42
2024-09	Hyp	37	9	22	49	42	42
2024-08	Rec	32	6	22	49	18	42
2024-07	Hyp	32	6	22	49	14	42
2024-06	Ress	43	32	22	58	46	42
2024-04	Ress	40	13	22	58	46	42
2024-03	Hyp	40	16	22	59	44	42
2024-02	Rec	42	26	22	59	43	42
2024-01	Ress	43	41	22	59	38	42
2023-11	Hyp	42	3	22	54	72	42
2023-09	Hyp	44	2	22	57	81	42
2023-06	Hyp	40	19	22	63	37	42
2023-05	Ress	41	19	22	63	44	42
2023-03	Ress	41	8	22	59	59	42
2022-12	Ress	49	33	22	81	59	42
2022-09	Hyp	42	19	22	81	31	42
2022-08	Exp	47	18	22	81	60	42
2022-06	Exp	50	12	22	81	88	42
2022-03	Exp	44	4	22	82	57	42
2021-12	Exp	39	2	22	61	50	43
2021-09	Exp	38	2	22	63	39	43
2021-06	Exp	38	1	22	69	37	43
2021-05	Rec	44	2	22	69	70	43
2021-03	Rec	43	4	22	76	54	43
2020-12	Rec	41	5	22	68	51	45
2020-09	Rec	46	10	22	70	75	45
2020-06	Rec	45	6	22	73	66	45
2020-03	Exp	50	20	22	74	82	45
2020-01	Exp	49	25	22	74	70	45
2019-10	Rec	47	11	22	74	77	45
2019-08	Rec	50	26	22	78	71	45
2019-05	Rec	42	5	22	77	50	45
2019-02	Rec	42	1	22	77	50	45
2019-01	Rec	42	1	22	77	55	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022