Rankings/Lafayette, LA

Lafayette, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 29180Compare

Risk Rank: #151 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Lafayette's housing market shows average risk, ranking 151st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Lafayette experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp62

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap60

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump57

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+3.6%p52

Days on Market YoY

-5.7%p37

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.9%p35

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.5%p57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+5.5%p62

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

5.08p60

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p52

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.1%p18

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$28Kp43

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorRetail Trade 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Lafayette's counties diverge significantly — Lafayette Parish (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Vermilion Parish, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Lafayette, LA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Lafayette Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Vermilion Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Lafayette ParishRisk Driver	75	Elevated	60.0%	67	33	100
St. Martin Parish	58	Elevated	12.4%	100	67	67
Acadia Parish	42	Below Average	13.8%	0	100	33
Vermilion ParishStabilizer	25	Low Risk	13.8%	33	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	70	22	56	18	42
2025-10	Exp	45	62	22	56	31	42
2025-08	Exp	49	85	22	56	32	42
2025-05	Rec	35	17	22	49	23	42
2025-03	Rec	33	5	22	49	23	42
2025-02	Hyp	32	7	22	49	15	42
2024-12	Hyp	38	23	22	53	32	42
2024-09	Hyp	37	9	22	49	42	42
2024-08	Rec	32	6	22	49	18	42
2024-07	Hyp	32	6	22	49	14	42
2024-06	Ress	43	32	22	58	46	42
2024-04	Ress	40	13	22	58	46	42
2024-03	Hyp	40	16	22	59	44	42
2024-02	Rec	42	26	22	59	43	42
2024-01	Ress	43	41	22	59	38	42
2023-11	Hyp	42	3	22	54	72	42
2023-09	Hyp	44	2	22	57	81	42
2023-06	Hyp	40	19	22	63	37	42
2023-05	Ress	41	19	22	63	44	42
2023-03	Ress	41	8	22	59	59	42
2022-12	Ress	49	33	22	81	59	42
2022-09	Hyp	42	19	22	81	31	42
2022-08	Exp	47	18	22	81	60	42
2022-06	Exp	50	12	22	81	88	42
2022-03	Exp	44	4	22	82	57	42
2021-12	Exp	39	2	22	61	50	43
2021-09	Exp	38	2	22	63	39	43
2021-06	Exp	38	1	22	69	37	43
2021-05	Rec	44	2	22	69	70	43
2021-03	Rec	43	4	22	76	54	43
2020-12	Rec	41	5	22	68	51	45
2020-09	Rec	46	10	22	70	75	45
2020-06	Rec	45	6	22	73	66	45
2020-03	Exp	50	20	22	74	82	45
2020-01	Exp	49	25	22	74	70	45
2019-10	Rec	47	11	22	74	77	45
2019-08	Rec	50	26	22	78	71	45
2019-05	Rec	42	5	22	77	50	45
2019-02	Rec	42	1	22	77	50	45
2019-01	Rec	42	1	22	77	55	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022