Rankings/La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN

La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 29100Compare

Risk Rank: #28 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +7

63score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

La Crosse experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

La Crosse's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 28th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p90 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p88 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p73 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +0% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+10.1%p59

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.8%p17

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum90

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth88

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita37

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability73

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment23

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.3%	p90
Permit Growth	+31.5%	p88
Permits/1K Pop	3.02	p37
Affordability	0.30	p73
Employment	+0.9%	p23
Net AGI Migration	-$17K	p67

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+31.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+10.1%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

La Crosse's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Vernon County carries the most risk (Elevated) while La Crosse County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

La Crosse, WI-MN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Vernon County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while La Crosse County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Vernon CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	100	50
Houston County	50	Average	33.3%	100	50	0
La Crosse CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	67	89	82	72	49	67
2025-10	Rec	69	89	82	72	60	67
2025-08	Rec	67	76	82	72	62	67
2025-07	Hyp	58	61	82	72	23	67
2025-05	Rec	61	84	82	73	15	67
2025-03	Ress	56	40	82	66	36	67
2025-01	Ress	54	32	82	66	29	67
2024-12	Hyp	56	19	82	65	59	67
2024-11	Ress	52	22	82	65	31	67
2024-09	Ress	62	63	82	69	48	67
2024-08	Rec	66	63	82	68	69	67
2024-07	Ress	68	60	82	69	87	67
2024-05	Ress	67	48	82	67	92	67
2024-04	Hyp	68	57	82	67	90	67
2024-03	Exp	72	90	82	69	77	67
2024-01	Exp	72	95	82	69	77	67
2023-12	Hyp	72	94	82	65	81	67
2023-11	Exp	71	90	82	65	79	67
2023-09	Exp	69	87	82	65	67	67
2023-07	Rec	62	88	82	65	28	67
2023-05	Rec	58	60	82	63	31	67
2023-04	Ress	55	47	82	63	26	67
2023-03	Exp	51	23	82	57	32	67
2023-01	Exp	55	30	82	57	47	67
2022-10	Rec	55	48	82	54	35	67
2022-08	Rec	60	25	82	53	90	67
2022-07	Exp	62	24	82	53	98	67
2022-05	Exp	67	52	82	56	99	67
2022-04	Rec	66	51	82	56	97	67
2022-02	Rec	62	33	82	54	88	67
2022-01	Exp	60	27	82	54	88	67
2021-11	Exp	61	18	82	65	87	70
2021-08	Exp	56	17	82	70	56	70
2021-05	Exp	53	14	82	70	36	70
2021-03	Rec	57	16	82	72	60	70
2021-01	Rec	55	15	82	72	46	70
2020-10	Exp	54	15	82	67	53	66
2020-08	Exp	56	22	82	68	57	66
2020-07	Rec	57	30	82	68	52	66
2020-05	Rec	56	11	82	66	64	66
2020-02	Exp	58	23	82	68	64	66
2019-12	Exp	65	54	82	71	84	53
2019-10	Rec	63	45	82	71	82	53
2019-08	Rec	63	36	82	69	92	53
2019-07	Exp	65	46	82	69	96	53
2019-05	Exp	65	47	82	71	91	53
2019-03	Rec	61	38	82	69	79	53
2019-01	Rec	67	62	82	69	94	53

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022