Rankings/Knoxville, TN

Knoxville, TN

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 28940Compare

Risk Rank: #37 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Knoxville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 7 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Knoxville's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 37th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 7 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p92 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p87 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p86 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+21.0%p71

Days on Market YoY

+13.8%p73

Months in status24

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.4%p29

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum63

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth86

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita87

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability92

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment23

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration16

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.3%	p63
Permit Growth	+27.7%	p86
Permits/1K Pop	8.55	p87
Affordability	0.35	p92
Employment	+0.9%	p23
Net AGI Migration	+$235K	p16

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+27.7%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+21.0%

Days on Market YoY+13.8%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 24 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Knoxville's counties diverge significantly — Blount County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Grainger County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High21.8

8 of 9 counties scored

Knoxville, TN shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Blount County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Grainger County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Blount CountyRisk Driver	86	High Risk	12.5%	86	86	86
Knox County	71	Elevated	12.5%	57	57	100
Anderson County	62	Elevated	12.5%	71	43	71
Roane County	57	Elevated	12.5%	29	100	43
Morgan CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Campbell County	38	Below Average	12.5%	100	0	14
Loudon County	38	Below Average	12.5%	43	14	57
Union County	33	Below Average	12.5%	0	71	29
Grainger CountyStabilizer	14	Low Risk	12.5%	14	29	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	53	54	59	92	17	17
2025-09	Hyp	55	52	59	92	31	17
2025-06	Hyp	53	37	59	90	35	17
2025-05	Ress	55	41	59	90	43	17
2025-03	Ress	56	50	59	88	42	17
2025-01	Hyp	56	46	59	88	47	17
2024-11	Hyp	57	75	59	90	23	17
2024-08	Hyp	56	81	59	88	13	17
2024-06	Ress	55	73	59	87	17	17
2024-04	Ress	54	67	59	87	15	17
2024-01	Ress	62	91	59	88	38	17
2023-12	Hyp	60	91	59	88	26	17
2023-11	Exp	61	91	59	88	34	17
2023-09	Exp	59	83	59	88	30	17
2023-08	Rec	60	86	59	88	33	17
2023-06	Rec	61	95	59	88	26	17
2023-04	Hyp	60	95	59	88	24	17
2023-02	Ress	59	92	59	83	24	17
2022-12	Ress	58	96	59	82	13	17
2022-09	Hyp	58	92	59	79	21	17
2022-07	Ress	57	92	59	79	17	17
2022-05	Ress	58	93	59	79	21	17
2022-04	Hyp	60	92	59	79	30	17
2022-03	Exp	56	87	59	74	22	17
2022-01	Rec	58	88	59	74	32	17
2021-11	Rec	60	86	59	72	46	15
2021-10	Exp	60	85	59	72	48	15
2021-08	Exp	57	85	59	69	35	15
2021-05	Exp	62	87	59	68	66	15
2021-04	Rec	61	86	59	68	61	15
2021-02	Rec	52	84	59	63	12	15
2021-01	Exp	53	85	59	63	15	15
2020-11	Exp	56	90	59	70	15	21
2020-10	Rec	56	90	59	70	14	21
2020-08	Rec	54	83	59	66	15	21
2020-07	Exp	54	83	59	66	14	21
2020-05	Exp	54	85	59	66	16	21
2020-04	Rec	54	84	59	66	14	21
2020-02	Rec	56	84	59	66	28	21
2020-01	Exp	57	84	59	66	30	21
2019-11	Exp	58	80	59	66	43	24
2019-09	Rec	58	80	59	65	39	24
2019-07	Rec	60	84	59	65	50	24
2019-06	Exp	58	74	59	66	46	24
2019-04	Exp	56	61	59	66	46	24
2019-03	Rec	55	63	59	64	42	24
2019-01	Rec	58	72	59	64	50	24

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022