US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 28880Compare
Risk Rank: #179 of 287Month: 2025-12
46score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Kiryas Joel's housing market shows average risk, ranking 179th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump78
12-month HPI change
Employmentp72
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permit Growthp42
YoY permit change
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumElevated
+4.4%p78

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral
-4.5%p42

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg
3.04p37

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk
0.23p18

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated
-0.2%p72

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg
+$66Kp27

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+191 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.92High
Completion-Permit Divergence
+1.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1
Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate
Largest SectorHealth Care 17.4%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2026-01
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2023