Rankings/Kingston, NY

Kingston, NY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 28740Compare

Risk Rank: #19 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Kingston's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 19th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Kingston experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.7% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump98

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp96

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp88

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.3%p48

Days on Market YoY

+11.4%p70

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.7%p18

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+8.1%p98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+74.1%p96

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.87p35

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p88

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$207Kp14

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+74.1%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 23.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	58	68	89	84	46	24
2025-09	Rec	61	60	89	84	72	24
2025-08	Hyp	54	53	89	84	40	24
2025-06	Hyp	54	30	89	81	62	24
2025-04	Rec	54	67	89	81	27	24
2025-02	Rec	50	55	89	82	12	24
2025-01	Hyp	47	44	89	82	10	24
2024-11	Exp	55	53	89	82	47	24
2024-09	Exp	68	94	89	83	86	24
2024-06	Hyp	62	93	89	79	54	24
2024-05	Exp	62	87	89	79	60	24
2024-03	Exp	65	99	89	81	62	24
2024-02	Rec	66	99	89	81	67	24
2023-12	Rec	58	95	89	74	34	24
2023-11	Exp	64	88	89	74	71	24
2023-09	Exp	45	18	89	63	40	24
2023-08	Rec	45	22	89	63	35	24
2023-06	Rec	49	38	89	66	42	24
2023-05	Hyp	55	56	89	66	61	24
2023-03	Ress	51	48	89	65	45	24
2023-01	Ress	53	41	89	65	62	24
2022-11	Rec	60	77	89	74	60	24
2022-09	Rec	64	79	89	76	78	24
2022-08	Exp	59	76	89	76	53	24
2022-06	Exp	48	23	89	65	55	24
2022-03	Exp	46	35	89	69	23	24
2022-02	Rec	46	38	89	69	19	24
2021-12	Rec	46	53	89	59	28	14
2021-09	Exp	56	74	89	60	64	14
2021-07	Exp	49	86	89	60	9	14
2021-04	Rec	52	99	89	62	11	14
2021-02	Rec	65	99	89	60	94	14
2020-11	Rec	70	99	89	86	96	15
2020-10	Exp	70	99	89	86	96	15
2020-08	Exp	68	95	89	79	95	15
2020-05	Rec	54	19	89	71	95	15
2020-03	Rec	65	82	89	76	96	15
2019-12	Rec	66	81	89	76	92	26
2019-11	Exp	66	80	89	76	91	26
2019-09	Exp	66	73	89	74	97	26
2019-08	Rec	67	82	89	74	97	26
2019-06	Rec	68	91	89	74	97	26
2019-05	Ress	68	88	89	74	95	26
2019-03	Exp	67	85	89	74	95	26
2019-01	Exp	65	76	89	74	89	26

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023