Rankings/Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA

Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 28700Compare

Risk Rank: #146 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -1

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Kingsport's housing market shows average risk, ranking 146th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Kingsport experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp96

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump53

12-month HPI change

Employmentp41

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+11.8%p61

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.2%p96

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.5%p53

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.9%p36

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.88p32

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.38p96

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.6%p41

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$29Kp40

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-7.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 30.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Kingsport's counties diverge significantly — Sullivan County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Scott County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.4

5 of 5 counties scored

Kingsport, TN-VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Sullivan County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Scott County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Sullivan CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	51.7%	50	50	100
Washington County	69	Elevated	17.3%	75	75	50
Bristol city	50	Average	5.4%	25	100	75
Hawkins County	44	Below Average	18.6%	100	0	25
Scott CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	6.9%	0	25	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	50	45	37	96	51	40
2025-12	Hyp	62	55	90	96	55	40
2025-10	Hyp	48	18	33	95	64	53
2025-07	Hyp	52	51	33	95	51	53
2025-05	Ress	47	40	33	95	32	53
2025-03	Ress	56	60	33	95	68	53
2025-02	Hyp	56	79	33	95	49	53
2024-12	Hyp	62	93	33	96	70	53
2024-09	Hyp	51	48	33	94	50	53
2024-07	Ress	59	85	33	94	63	53
2024-05	Ress	60	99	33	95	55	53
2024-02	Hyp	52	63	33	92	42	53
2023-12	Ress	56	91	33	97	36	53
2023-10	Ress	58	97	33	97	42	53
2023-09	Hyp	54	69	33	95	48	53
2023-08	Rec	52	67	33	95	35	53
2023-06	Rec	49	63	33	95	22	53
2023-05	Hyp	52	68	33	95	36	53
2023-03	Ress	61	94	33	95	63	53
2023-01	Ress	56	97	33	95	33	53
2022-11	Hyp	56	90	33	93	39	53
2022-10	Rec	56	91	33	93	36	53
2022-08	Exp	56	89	33	92	41	53
2022-06	Exp	59	87	33	91	61	53
2022-03	Exp	60	82	33	90	76	53
2022-01	Rec	61	81	33	90	83	53
2021-11	Rec	59	72	33	90	87	45
2021-09	Exp	58	70	33	90	87	45
2021-07	Exp	59	61	33	90	98	45
2021-04	Exp	59	64	33	89	95	45
2021-03	Rec	48	41	33	90	50	45
2021-01	Rec	45	32	33	90	44	45
2020-10	Rec	42	32	33	84	31	47
2020-07	Rec	47	70	33	86	22	47
2020-04	Rec	39	19	33	83	25	47
2020-01	Exp	56	67	33	84	81	47
2019-11	Exp	60	77	33	86	94	43
2019-08	Exp	55	65	33	86	77	43
2019-07	Rec	57	60	33	86	93	43
2019-05	Rec	58	73	33	86	90	43
2019-03	Exp	52	32	33	85	92	43
2019-01	Exp	48	9	33	85	93	43

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023