Rankings/Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA

Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 28700Compare

Risk Rank: #49 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

59score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Kingsport experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 7 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Kingsport's housing market shows average risk, ranking 49th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 7 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p95 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p90 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Employment

p55 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+16.6%p66

Days on Market YoY

+12.3%p71

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.5%p90

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum23

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth90

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita40

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability95

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment55

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.7%	p23
Permit Growth	+40.0%	p90
Permits/1K Pop	3.17	p40
Affordability	0.36	p95
Employment	+0.2%	p55
Net AGI Migration	+$7K	p53

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+40.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+16.6%

Days on Market YoY+12.3%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Kingsport's counties diverge significantly — Washington County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Hawkins County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.7Limited data

4 of 5 counties scored

Kingsport, TN-VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Washington County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Hawkins County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Washington CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	100	100	33
Sullivan County	56	Elevated	25.0%	67	33	67
Scott CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Hawkins CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	25.0%	33	67	0
Bristol city	33	Below Average	25.0%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	49	20	33	95	66	53
2025-09	Hyp	52	26	33	95	75	53
2025-06	Hyp	51	56	33	95	41	53
2025-05	Ress	47	40	33	95	32	53
2025-03	Ress	56	60	33	95	68	53
2025-02	Hyp	56	79	33	95	49	53
2024-12	Hyp	62	93	33	96	70	53
2024-09	Hyp	51	48	33	94	50	53
2024-07	Ress	59	85	33	94	63	53
2024-05	Ress	60	99	33	95	55	53
2024-02	Hyp	52	63	33	92	42	53
2023-12	Ress	56	91	33	97	36	53
2023-10	Ress	58	97	33	97	42	53
2023-09	Hyp	54	69	33	95	48	53
2023-08	Rec	52	67	33	95	35	53
2023-06	Rec	49	63	33	95	22	53
2023-05	Hyp	52	68	33	95	36	53
2023-03	Ress	61	94	33	95	63	53
2023-01	Ress	56	97	33	95	33	53
2022-11	Hyp	56	90	33	93	39	53
2022-10	Rec	56	91	33	93	36	53
2022-08	Exp	56	89	33	92	41	53
2022-06	Exp	59	87	33	91	61	53
2022-03	Exp	60	82	33	90	76	53
2022-01	Rec	61	81	33	90	83	53
2021-11	Rec	59	72	33	90	87	45
2021-09	Exp	58	70	33	90	87	45
2021-07	Exp	59	61	33	90	98	45
2021-04	Exp	59	64	33	89	95	45
2021-03	Rec	48	41	33	90	50	45
2021-01	Rec	45	32	33	90	44	45
2020-10	Rec	42	32	33	84	31	47
2020-07	Rec	47	70	33	86	22	47
2020-04	Rec	39	19	33	83	25	47
2020-01	Exp	56	67	33	84	81	47
2019-11	Exp	60	77	33	86	94	43
2019-08	Exp	55	65	33	86	77	43
2019-07	Rec	57	60	33	86	93	43
2019-05	Rec	58	73	33	86	90	43
2019-03	Exp	52	32	33	85	92	43
2019-01	Exp	48	9	33	85	93	43

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022