Rankings/Killeen-Temple, TX

Killeen-Temple, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 28660Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Killeen's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Killeen experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +16% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap73

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp54

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +16% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+16.1%p66

Days on Market YoY

+13.8%p73

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p75

Months in status34

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.3%p5

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-16.1%p22

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.52p73

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p54

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p53

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$96Kp22

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-16.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 33.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Killeen's counties diverge significantly — Bell County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Coryell County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Killeen, TX shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Bell County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Coryell County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bell CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	78.3%	100	100	100
Coryell CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	17.1%	0	50	0
Lampasas County<5%	25	Low Risk	4.6%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	13	48	56	64	22
2025-09	Rec	42	17	48	56	33	22
2025-08	Ress	46	14	48	56	59	22
2025-06	Ress	49	9	48	57	80	22
2025-05	Hyp	49	9	48	57	79	22
2025-03	Hyp	57	47	48	63	83	22
2025-02	Ress	56	33	48	63	88	22
2024-12	Ress	49	5	48	60	81	22
2024-11	Hyp	48	4	48	60	78	22
2024-09	Hyp	47	6	48	63	65	22
2024-06	Hyp	42	6	48	62	38	22
2024-05	Ress	41	12	48	62	22	22
2024-03	Ress	45	36	48	67	19	22
2024-01	Rec	42	14	48	67	22	22
2023-11	Hyp	45	17	48	49	55	22
2023-09	Hyp	49	23	48	51	70	22
2023-06	Hyp	44	12	48	47	58	22
2023-03	Ress	54	53	48	55	67	22
2023-01	Ress	57	69	48	55	72	22
2022-10	Ress	59	77	48	70	58	22
2022-07	Ress	64	93	48	73	69	22
2022-04	Hyp	63	96	48	70	65	22
2022-03	Rec	61	95	48	65	59	22
2022-01	Rec	62	92	48	65	68	22
2021-12	Exp	61	95	48	60	60	25
2021-10	Exp	58	93	48	60	44	25
2021-07	Exp	62	90	48	54	76	25
2021-05	Rec	60	77	48	48	85	25
2021-03	Rec	48	69	48	45	19	25
2021-02	Exp	48	68	48	45	23	25
2020-12	Exp	58	67	48	53	16	86
2020-11	Rec	60	77	48	53	17	86
2020-09	Rec	55	59	48	51	9	86
2020-06	Rec	51	34	48	50	9	86
2020-04	Exp	52	46	48	50	3	86
2020-02	Exp	65	90	48	52	33	86
2019-11	Rec	55	83	48	49	36	33
2019-09	Rec	60	97	48	52	49	33
2019-08	Exp	59	97	48	52	43	33
2019-06	Exp	59	96	48	51	45	33
2019-03	Exp	56	65	48	49	63	33
2019-01	Exp	60	65	48	49	84	33

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023