Rankings/Kennewick-Richland, WA

Kennewick-Richland, WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 28420Compare

Risk Rank: #131 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +14

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Kennewick experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 4 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Kennewick's housing market shows average risk, ranking 131st of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p75 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p70 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p51 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+23% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+22.9%p73

Days on Market YoY

-2.8%p42

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status38

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum51

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth46

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita75

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability26

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment70

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.4%	p51
Permit Growth	-3.4%	p46
Permits/1K Pop	6.66	p75
Affordability	0.25	p26
Employment	-0.1%	p70
Net AGI Migration	+$46K	p37

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-3.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+22.9%

Days on Market YoY-2.8%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	52	53	75	24	41	36
2025-09	Hyp	56	52	75	24	69	36
2025-08	Ress	51	44	75	24	44	36
2025-06	Ress	47	38	75	26	25	36
2025-05	Hyp	43	29	75	26	13	36
2025-03	Exp	40	17	75	26	3	36
2025-01	Exp	40	18	75	26	3	36
2024-12	Rec	37	6	75	23	1	36
2024-10	Rec	37	7	75	23	1	36
2024-08	Hyp	41	22	75	26	6	36
2024-06	Rec	43	29	75	29	10	36
2024-04	Hyp	45	20	75	29	28	36
2024-02	Hyp	46	23	75	30	28	36
2023-11	Ress	52	13	75	38	66	36
2023-09	Ress	50	4	75	37	69	36
2023-08	Hyp	52	4	75	37	80	36
2023-07	Ress	50	6	75	37	62	36
2023-05	Ress	48	22	75	41	30	36
2023-04	Hyp	52	25	75	41	53	36
2023-02	Ress	58	22	75	43	91	36
2022-12	Ress	51	36	75	38	41	36
2022-10	Hyp	54	46	75	38	48	36
2022-08	Hyp	54	63	75	40	31	36
2022-07	Ress	58	67	75	40	47	36
2022-05	Ress	60	60	75	38	67	36
2022-02	Rec	53	78	75	41	6	36
2022-01	Exp	53	76	75	41	11	36
2021-11	Exp	52	71	75	36	15	32
2021-08	Exp	54	73	75	34	26	32
2021-07	Rec	51	73	75	34	10	32
2021-05	Rec	54	64	75	31	38	32
2021-04	Exp	59	64	75	31	72	32
2021-02	Exp	57	70	75	30	53	32
2021-01	Rec	58	71	75	30	56	32
2020-11	Rec	61	85	75	49	47	30
2020-08	Rec	61	89	75	48	44	30
2020-07	Exp	64	90	75	48	60	30
2020-05	Exp	62	95	75	48	41	30
2020-04	Rec	58	93	75	48	19	30
2020-02	Rec	56	97	75	47	3	30
2020-01	Exp	59	96	75	47	26	30
2019-11	Exp	58	96	75	47	15	31
2019-08	Exp	57	97	75	44	15	31
2019-06	Rec	56	97	75	44	5	31
2019-04	Rec	57	98	75	44	11	31
2019-03	Exp	64	96	75	41	61	31
2019-01	Exp	57	96	75	41	17	31

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022