Rankings/Kansas City, MO-KS

Kansas City, MO-KS

NeutralTier 1CBSA 28140Compare

Risk Rank: #51 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +1

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Kansas City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 51st of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Kansas City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp77

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp75

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump61

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+15.3%p65

Days on Market YoY

-2.9%p42

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status41

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.6%p61

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-1.3%p51

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.21p52

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p33

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p77

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$26Kp75

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-1.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 36.5%

4 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Kansas City's 14 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.6Limited data

14 of 14 counties scored

Kansas City, MO-KS shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Jackson County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Wyandotte County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Leavenworth County<5%	73	Elevated	3.8%	85	100	38
Linn County<5%	69	Elevated	0.4%	100	69	8
Jackson CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	32.5%	15	92	77
Johnson County	65	Elevated	28.0%	69	15	100
Cass County<5%	60	Elevated	5.0%	46	38	69
Clay County	54	Average	11.6%	62	62	85
Miami County<5%	52	Average	1.6%	77	31	54
Platte County<5%	50	Average	5.0%	38	54	92
Wyandotte CountyStabilizer	50	Average	7.6%	92	23	62
Lafayette County<5%	48	Average	1.5%	23	85	31
Clinton County<5%	36	Below Average	1.0%	54	8	46
Ray County<5%	27	Below Average	1.0%	8	46	23
Caldwell County<5%	23	Low Risk	0.4%	31	0	0
Bates County<5%	23	Low Risk	0.7%	0	77	15

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	64	64	75	34	72	90
2025-09	Rec	66	64	75	34	83	90
2025-07	Ress	61	54	75	34	65	90
2025-05	Hyp	63	51	75	33	82	90
2025-04	Exp	64	49	75	33	91	90
2025-02	Exp	63	48	75	36	81	90
2025-01	Rec	62	49	75	36	74	90
2024-11	Rec	58	42	75	32	60	90
2024-09	Hyp	56	56	75	33	35	90
2024-07	Hyp	61	53	75	33	68	90
2024-04	Hyp	56	53	75	36	35	90
2024-03	Exp	57	52	75	35	43	90
2024-01	Exp	63	61	75	35	66	90
2023-10	Exp	61	64	75	35	55	90
2023-08	Rec	64	72	75	35	66	90
2023-06	Rec	58	75	75	35	26	90
2023-05	Hyp	58	69	75	35	33	90
2023-03	Hyp	57	53	75	35	42	90
2023-02	Ress	60	55	75	35	56	90
2022-12	Ress	56	45	75	34	43	90
2022-09	Hyp	56	47	75	33	42	90
2022-07	Hyp	59	44	75	33	64	90
2022-04	Exp	60	38	75	37	73	90
2022-02	Exp	59	42	75	37	61	90
2022-01	Rec	63	45	75	37	80	90
2021-11	Rec	56	32	76	24	71	86
2021-10	Exp	56	33	76	24	65	86
2021-08	Exp	59	42	76	26	73	86
2021-05	Exp	63	65	76	27	73	86
2021-04	Rec	61	67	76	27	62	86
2021-02	Rec	58	64	76	26	46	86
2021-01	Exp	57	69	76	26	35	86
2020-11	Exp	52	78	76	23	41	47
2020-09	Rec	53	83	76	23	41	47
2020-07	Rec	51	83	76	23	27	47
2020-04	Rec	51	69	76	23	41	47
2020-01	Rec	50	61	76	22	43	47
2019-10	Rec	60	65	76	22	57	91
2019-07	Rec	62	68	76	20	66	91
2019-04	Rec	60	61	76	21	61	91
2019-02	Hyp	64	68	76	20	80	91
2019-01	Hyp	63	72	76	20	68	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023