Rankings/Kansas City, MO-KS

Kansas City, MO-KS

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 28140Compare

Risk Rank: #37 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Kansas City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 5 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Kansas City's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 37th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p90 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p78 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p60 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+15.3%p65

Days on Market YoY

-2.9%p42

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status41

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum60

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth51

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita53

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability35

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment78

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.1%	p60
Permit Growth	-1.3%	p51
Permits/1K Pop	4.21	p53
Affordability	0.26	p35
Employment	-0.3%	p78
Net AGI Migration	-$183K	p90

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-1.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+15.3%

Days on Market YoY-2.9%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Kansas City's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Leavenworth County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Caldwell County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.5

14 of 14 counties scored

Kansas City, MO-KS shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Leavenworth County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Caldwell County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Leavenworth CountyRisk Driver	74	Elevated	7.1%	85	100	38
Clay County	70	Elevated	7.1%	62	62	85
Johnson County	61	Elevated	7.1%	69	15	100
Platte County	61	Elevated	7.1%	38	54	92
Jackson County	61	Elevated	7.1%	15	92	77
Linn County	59	Elevated	7.1%	100	69	8
Wyandotte County	59	Elevated	7.1%	92	23	62
Miami County	54	Average	7.1%	77	31	54
Cass County	51	Average	7.1%	46	38	69
Lafayette County	46	Average	7.1%	23	85	31
Clinton County	36	Below Average	7.1%	54	8	46
Bates County	31	Below Average	7.1%	0	77	15
Ray County	26	Below Average	7.1%	8	46	23
Caldwell CountyStabilizer	10	Low Risk	7.1%	31	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	64	64	75	34	72	90
2025-09	Rec	66	64	75	34	83	90
2025-07	Ress	61	54	75	34	65	90
2025-05	Hyp	63	51	75	33	82	90
2025-04	Exp	64	49	75	33	91	90
2025-02	Exp	63	48	75	36	81	90
2025-01	Rec	62	49	75	36	74	90
2024-11	Rec	58	42	75	32	60	90
2024-09	Hyp	56	56	75	33	35	90
2024-07	Hyp	61	53	75	33	68	90
2024-04	Hyp	56	53	75	36	35	90
2024-03	Exp	57	52	75	35	43	90
2024-01	Exp	63	61	75	35	66	90
2023-10	Exp	61	64	75	35	55	90
2023-08	Rec	64	72	75	35	66	90
2023-06	Rec	58	75	75	35	26	90
2023-05	Hyp	58	69	75	35	33	90
2023-03	Hyp	57	53	75	35	42	90
2023-02	Ress	60	55	75	35	56	90
2022-12	Ress	56	45	75	34	43	90
2022-09	Hyp	56	47	75	33	42	90
2022-07	Hyp	59	44	75	33	64	90
2022-04	Exp	60	38	75	37	73	90
2022-02	Exp	59	42	75	37	61	90
2022-01	Rec	63	45	75	37	80	90
2021-11	Rec	56	32	76	24	71	86
2021-10	Exp	56	33	76	24	65	86
2021-08	Exp	59	42	76	26	73	86
2021-05	Exp	63	65	76	27	73	86
2021-04	Rec	61	67	76	27	62	86
2021-02	Rec	58	64	76	26	46	86
2021-01	Exp	57	69	76	26	35	86
2020-11	Exp	52	78	76	23	41	47
2020-09	Rec	53	83	76	23	41	47
2020-07	Rec	51	83	76	23	27	47
2020-04	Rec	51	69	76	23	41	47
2020-01	Rec	50	61	76	22	43	47
2019-10	Rec	60	65	76	22	57	91
2019-07	Rec	62	68	76	20	66	91
2019-04	Rec	60	61	76	21	61	91
2019-02	Hyp	64	68	76	20	80	91
2019-01	Hyp	63	72	76	20	68	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022