Rankings/Kansas City, MO-KS

Kansas City, MO-KS

NeutralTier 1CBSA 28140Compare

Risk Rank: #52 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):— -4

59score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Kansas City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 52nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Kansas City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up -9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp75

YoY permit change

Migrationp75

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump68

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up -9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.3%p67

Days on Market YoY

-8.5%p31

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p80

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.3%p68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+17.3%p75

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.83p57

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p35

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p43

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$26Kp75

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+17.3%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 36.5%

4 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Kansas City's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Johnson County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Clay County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.1Limited data

14 of 14 counties scored

Kansas City, MO-KS shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Johnson County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Clay County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Platte County<5%	77	High Risk	5.0%	62	92	92
Johnson CountyRisk Driver	71	Elevated	28.0%	31	69	100
Miami County<5%	66	Elevated	1.6%	85	62	69
Jackson County	64	Elevated	32.5%	23	54	85
Wyandotte County	62	Elevated	7.6%	38	85	54
Clinton County<5%	62	Elevated	1.0%	69	77	46
Bates County<5%	56	Elevated	0.7%	100	100	15
Lafayette County<5%	50	Average	1.5%	92	38	38
Ray County<5%	42	Below Average	1.0%	77	46	23
Linn County<5%	42	Below Average	0.4%	54	8	8
Cass County<5%	40	Below Average	5.0%	8	15	62
Leavenworth County<5%	34	Below Average	3.8%	46	23	31
Clay CountyStabilizer	31	Below Average	11.6%	0	31	77
Caldwell County<5%	4	Low Risk	0.4%	15	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	58	61	51	33	77	75
2025-10	Rec	65	69	75	34	73	90
2025-07	Ress	61	54	75	34	65	90
2025-05	Hyp	63	51	75	33	82	90
2025-04	Exp	64	49	75	33	91	90
2025-02	Exp	63	48	75	36	81	90
2025-01	Rec	62	49	75	36	74	90
2024-11	Rec	58	42	75	32	60	90
2024-09	Hyp	56	56	75	33	35	90
2024-07	Hyp	61	53	75	33	68	90
2024-04	Hyp	56	53	75	36	35	90
2024-03	Exp	57	52	75	35	43	90
2024-01	Exp	63	61	75	35	66	90
2023-10	Exp	61	64	75	35	55	90
2023-08	Rec	64	72	75	35	66	90
2023-06	Rec	58	75	75	35	26	90
2023-05	Hyp	58	69	75	35	33	90
2023-03	Hyp	57	53	75	35	42	90
2023-02	Ress	60	55	75	35	56	90
2022-12	Ress	56	45	75	34	43	90
2022-09	Hyp	56	47	75	33	42	90
2022-07	Hyp	59	44	75	33	64	90
2022-04	Exp	60	38	75	37	73	90
2022-02	Exp	59	42	75	37	61	90
2022-01	Rec	63	45	75	37	80	90
2021-11	Rec	56	32	76	24	71	86
2021-10	Exp	56	33	76	24	65	86
2021-08	Exp	59	42	76	26	73	86
2021-05	Exp	63	65	76	27	73	86
2021-04	Rec	61	67	76	27	62	86
2021-02	Rec	58	64	76	26	46	86
2021-01	Exp	57	69	76	26	35	86
2020-11	Exp	52	78	76	23	41	47
2020-09	Rec	53	83	76	23	41	47
2020-07	Rec	51	83	76	23	27	47
2020-04	Rec	51	69	76	23	41	47
2020-01	Rec	50	61	76	22	43	47
2019-10	Rec	60	65	76	22	57	91
2019-07	Rec	62	68	76	20	66	91
2019-04	Rec	60	61	76	21	61	91
2019-02	Hyp	64	68	76	20	80	91
2019-01	Hyp	63	72	76	20	68	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023