Rankings/Kahului-Wailuku, HI

Kahului-Wailuku, HI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27980Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +7

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Kahului experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 3 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Kahului's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permits per capita. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p92 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p57 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p51 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+25.3%p75

Days on Market YoY

+2.0%p52

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-6.6%p5

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum92

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita57

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability51

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment2

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration27

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.8%	p92
Permit Growth	-4.1%	p44
Permits/1K Pop	4.73	p57
Affordability	0.27	p51
Employment	+2.3%	p2
Net AGI Migration	+$85K	p27

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-4.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+25.3%

Days on Market YoY+2.0%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	58	97	95	50	1	28
2025-09	Hyp	59	98	95	50	6	28
2025-07	Hyp	53	63	95	50	6	28
2025-04	Hyp	56	88	95	45	7	28
2025-01	Hyp	46	10	95	45	23	28
2024-10	Hyp	39	4	95	32	0	28
2024-09	Ress	57	93	95	49	0	28
2024-07	Ress	74	99	95	49	100	28
2024-04	Ress	56	0	95	38	100	28
2024-02	Hyp	69	62	95	56	100	28
2023-12	Hyp	64	15	95	71	100	28
2023-11	Exp	64	16	95	71	100	28
2023-09	Rec	61	5	95	64	100	28
2023-07	Rec	58	37	95	64	46	28
2023-05	Hyp	65	100	95	82	12	28
2023-03	Hyp	66	95	95	76	25	28
2023-01	Ress	62	95	95	76	6	28
2022-11	Ress	60	92	95	46	22	28
2022-10	Hyp	58	89	95	46	15	28
2022-09	Ress	55	69	95	32	33	28
2022-07	Ress	59	80	95	32	43	28
2022-06	Exp	55	86	95	35	12	28
2022-04	Exp	53	83	95	35	2	28
2022-01	Exp	49	63	95	32	0	28
2021-10	Exp	55	69	95	61	0	33
2021-09	Rec	48	30	95	54	0	33
2021-07	Rec	47	27	95	54	0	33
2021-04	Rec	45	13	95	55	1	33
2021-01	Rec	64	22	95	59	100	33
2020-10	Hyp	56	3	95	32	100	29
2020-08	Hyp	57	8	95	34	100	29
2020-07	Exp	59	21	95	34	100	29
2020-05	Exp	64	46	95	42	100	29
2020-03	Rec	58	16	95	41	93	29
2020-01	Rec	57	13	95	41	89	29
2019-12	Exp	66	63	95	45	82	38
2019-10	Exp	69	73	95	45	90	38
2019-09	Rec	56	18	95	38	74	38
2019-07	Rec	62	37	95	38	89	38
2019-05	Exp	65	59	95	42	83	38
2019-03	Exp	64	77	95	44	54	38
2019-01	Exp	61	73	95	44	45	38

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022