Rankings/Kahului-Wailuku, HI

Kahului-Wailuku, HI

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 27980Compare

Risk Rank: #263 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -28

29score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Kahului's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 263rd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Kahului experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap44

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp38

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+6.0%p55

Days on Market YoY

+6.5%p61

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.3%p96

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.1%p10

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-41.5%p3

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.57p44

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.6%p11

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$12Kp67

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-41.5%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 29.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	27	1	8	33	7	66
2025-12	Ress	50	84	44	46	2	66
2025-10	Ress	58	100	95	50	1	28
2025-09	Hyp	59	98	95	50	6	28
2025-07	Hyp	53	63	95	50	6	28
2025-04	Hyp	56	88	95	45	7	28
2025-01	Hyp	46	10	95	45	23	28
2024-10	Hyp	39	4	95	32	0	28
2024-09	Ress	57	93	95	49	0	28
2024-07	Ress	74	99	95	49	100	28
2024-04	Ress	56	0	95	38	100	28
2024-02	Hyp	69	62	95	56	100	28
2023-12	Hyp	64	15	95	71	100	28
2023-11	Exp	64	16	95	71	100	28
2023-09	Rec	61	5	95	64	100	28
2023-07	Rec	58	37	95	64	46	28
2023-05	Hyp	65	100	95	82	12	28
2023-03	Hyp	66	95	95	76	25	28
2023-01	Ress	62	95	95	76	6	28
2022-11	Ress	60	92	95	46	22	28
2022-10	Hyp	58	89	95	46	15	28
2022-09	Ress	55	69	95	32	33	28
2022-07	Ress	59	80	95	32	43	28
2022-06	Exp	55	86	95	35	12	28
2022-04	Exp	53	83	95	35	2	28
2022-01	Exp	49	63	95	32	0	28
2021-10	Exp	55	69	95	61	0	33
2021-09	Rec	48	30	95	54	0	33
2021-07	Rec	47	27	95	54	0	33
2021-04	Rec	45	13	95	55	1	33
2021-01	Rec	64	22	95	59	100	33
2020-10	Hyp	56	3	95	32	100	29
2020-08	Hyp	57	8	95	34	100	29
2020-07	Exp	59	21	95	34	100	29
2020-05	Exp	64	46	95	42	100	29
2020-03	Rec	58	16	95	41	93	29
2020-01	Rec	57	13	95	41	89	29
2019-12	Exp	66	63	95	45	82	38
2019-10	Exp	69	73	95	45	90	38
2019-09	Rec	56	18	95	38	74	38
2019-07	Rec	62	37	95	38	89	38
2019-05	Exp	65	59	95	42	83	38
2019-03	Exp	64	77	95	44	54	38
2019-01	Exp	61	73	95	44	45	38

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023