Rankings/Joplin, MO-KS

Joplin, MO-KS

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 27900Compare

Risk Rank: #31 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +20

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Joplin's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 31st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Joplin experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +13% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp70

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump66

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +13% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+13.2%p63

Days on Market YoY

+12.7%p72

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.9%p97

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.9%p66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-7.2%p41

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.41p43

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p70

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.5%p97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$5Kp56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-7.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 23.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Joplin's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Newton County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Cherokee County anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.8Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Joplin, MO-KS shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Newton County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Cherokee County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Jasper County	62	Elevated	61.1%	50	0	100
Newton CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	29.5%	100	50	50
Cherokee CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	9.4%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	60	70	25	69	98	54
2025-09	Rec	61	77	25	69	100	54
2025-08	Hyp	59	71	25	69	90	54
2025-07	Ress	56	66	25	69	80	54
2025-05	Ress	52	49	25	65	78	54
2025-04	Hyp	51	49	25	65	71	54
2025-03	Exp	58	76	25	67	85	54
2025-02	Hyp	56	70	25	67	74	54
2025-01	Rec	53	68	25	67	63	54
2024-11	Ress	41	28	25	63	35	54
2024-09	Ress	47	44	25	65	52	54
2024-08	Hyp	47	49	25	65	44	54
2024-07	Rec	50	54	25	65	60	54
2024-06	Hyp	55	68	25	66	72	54
2024-05	Ress	56	78	25	66	69	54
2024-03	Ress	57	98	25	65	55	54
2024-02	Hyp	57	100	25	65	57	54
2023-12	Exp	59	100	25	70	61	54
2023-10	Exp	58	87	25	70	66	54
2023-08	Rec	59	87	25	67	77	54
2023-06	Rec	51	56	25	62	66	54
2023-05	Hyp	49	54	25	62	55	54
2023-03	Ress	38	13	25	53	43	54
2023-01	Ress	38	17	25	53	39	54
2022-11	Hyp	55	70	25	67	70	54
2022-10	Rec	54	73	25	67	61	54
2022-08	Hyp	54	67	25	65	71	54
2022-06	Hyp	54	66	25	66	72	54
2022-05	Exp	55	66	25	66	78	54
2022-03	Rec	55	58	25	65	88	54
2022-01	Rec	51	58	25	65	62	54
2021-10	Exp	45	48	25	44	51	61
2021-08	Exp	45	55	25	45	42	61
2021-05	Exp	49	55	25	45	67	61
2021-03	Rec	39	54	25	45	9	61
2021-01	Rec	39	47	25	45	14	61
2020-12	Exp	44	39	25	57	40	59
2020-10	Exp	47	51	25	57	47	59
2020-09	Rec	48	54	25	59	50	59
2020-07	Rec	46	46	25	59	42	59
2020-05	Exp	43	39	25	59	32	59
2020-03	Exp	57	59	25	59	96	59
2019-12	Exp	50	33	25	57	84	57
2019-09	Exp	47	33	25	58	66	57
2019-06	Rec	46	41	25	58	53	57
2019-04	Rec	48	24	25	58	80	57
2019-03	Exp	46	25	25	57	67	57
2019-01	Exp	46	43	25	57	53	57

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022