Rankings/Johnson City, TN

Johnson City, TN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27740Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -31

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Johnson City experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Johnson City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and price momentum. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p98 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p59 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p54 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +22% YoY with days on market up +15% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+22.2%p72

Days on Market YoY

+15.4%p75

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p85

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum59

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth4

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita54

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability98

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment22

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration46

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p59
Permit Growth	-34.0%	p4
Permits/1K Pop	4.27	p54
Affordability	0.40	p98
Employment	+0.9%	p22
Net AGI Migration	+$21K	p46

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-34.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+22.2%

Days on Market YoY+15.4%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Johnson City's counties diverge significantly — Washington County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Carter County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Johnson City, TN shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Washington County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Carter County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Washington CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	50	100
Unicoi County	50	Average	33.3%	50	100	0
Carter CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	63	47	80	98	33	46
2025-10	Hyp	65	36	80	98	60	46
2025-08	Hyp	65	51	80	98	44	46
2025-06	Ress	72	76	80	99	60	46
2025-04	Ress	68	55	80	99	59	46
2025-01	Rec	71	44	80	97	85	46
2024-12	Hyp	78	85	80	98	85	46
2024-10	Hyp	74	92	80	98	54	46
2024-08	Ress	70	62	80	97	61	46
2024-06	Ress	68	84	80	98	30	46
2024-05	Hyp	71	88	80	98	41	46
2024-03	Ress	70	65	80	97	62	46
2024-01	Ress	64	44	80	97	46	46
2023-11	Hyp	67	63	80	93	47	46
2023-10	Exp	72	77	80	93	67	46
2023-09	Rec	74	91	80	95	62	46
2023-07	Rec	71	83	80	95	48	46
2023-06	Hyp	73	79	80	92	68	46
2023-04	Hyp	74	90	80	92	67	46
2023-02	Ress	78	99	80	92	81	46
2022-12	Ress	74	100	80	85	65	46
2022-10	Exp	72	98	80	85	52	46
2022-08	Exp	80	98	80	85	97	46
2022-07	Ress	78	96	80	85	93	46
2022-06	Exp	74	92	80	82	71	46
2022-04	Exp	71	88	80	82	58	46
2022-02	Rec	68	61	80	77	73	46
2021-12	Rec	71	58	80	81	83	54
2021-11	Exp	67	59	80	81	59	54
2021-09	Exp	65	69	80	82	34	54
2021-06	Exp	64	62	80	83	33	54
2021-03	Rec	58	51	80	84	11	54
2021-01	Rec	58	55	80	84	5	54
2020-12	Exp	59	48	80	90	8	58
2020-10	Exp	61	58	80	90	10	58
2020-09	Rec	61	50	80	90	18	58
2020-07	Rec	61	54	80	90	14	58
2020-06	Exp	65	81	80	90	10	58
2020-04	Exp	66	75	80	90	19	58
2020-03	Rec	68	67	80	91	41	58
2020-01	Rec	70	64	80	91	53	58
2019-10	Exp	70	79	80	91	35	62
2019-08	Exp	69	60	80	90	50	62
2019-07	Rec	71	51	80	90	68	62
2019-05	Rec	72	67	80	92	60	62
2019-03	Exp	72	49	80	91	74	62
2019-01	Exp	68	20	80	91	84	62

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022