Rankings/Jefferson City, MO

Jefferson City, MO

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27620Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Jefferson City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Jefferson City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p99 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p63 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p52 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.5%p58

Days on Market YoY

-13.6%p24

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.2%p67

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth52

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita9

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability46

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment7

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+8.2%	p99
Permit Growth	-0.9%	p52
Permits/1K Pop	1.44	p9
Affordability	0.27	p46
Employment	+1.8%	p7
Net AGI Migration	-$9K	p63

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+9.5%

Days on Market YoY-13.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Jefferson City's counties diverge significantly — Callaway County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Moniteau County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Jefferson City, MO shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Callaway County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Moniteau County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Callaway CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	50
Cole County	50	Average	33.3%	50	0	100
Osage CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Moniteau CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	97	64	45	4	63
2025-09	Rec	51	97	64	45	26	63
2025-06	Ress	50	97	64	41	27	63
2025-04	Hyp	51	95	64	41	33	63
2025-03	Rec	37	27	64	33	23	63
2025-02	Hyp	37	26	64	33	24	63
2024-12	Hyp	42	65	64	36	17	63
2024-09	Ress	44	58	64	30	36	63
2024-07	Ress	43	55	64	30	37	63
2024-06	Hyp	45	77	64	33	24	63
2024-05	Rec	45	84	64	33	17	63
2024-04	Hyp	46	87	64	33	22	63
2024-02	Hyp	48	96	64	37	21	63
2023-12	Exp	47	78	64	36	30	63
2023-10	Exp	46	71	64	36	31	63
2023-09	Rec	47	88	64	36	20	63
2023-07	Rec	49	97	64	36	25	63
2023-06	Exp	51	87	64	31	51	63
2023-04	Exp	49	79	64	31	46	63
2023-03	Ress	50	80	64	29	56	63
2023-02	Exp	51	79	64	29	61	63
2023-01	Rec	54	79	64	29	77	63
2022-11	Rec	50	74	64	19	72	63
2022-10	Hyp	48	66	64	19	64	63
2022-08	Hyp	49	48	64	17	92	63
2022-06	Ress	50	60	64	17	83	63
2022-04	Ress	49	46	64	17	93	63
2022-02	Rec	49	49	64	16	90	63
2021-12	Rec	54	69	64	22	95	62
2021-11	Exp	53	65	64	22	97	62
2021-09	Exp	46	35	64	19	89	62
2021-06	Exp	51	51	64	20	98	62
2021-05	Rec	50	50	64	20	95	62
2021-03	Rec	30	14	64	17	14	62
2021-02	Exp	29	12	64	17	12	62
2020-12	Exp	30	9	64	16	17	62
2020-11	Rec	30	12	64	16	13	62
2020-09	Rec	30	14	64	17	11	62
2020-06	Rec	28	6	64	17	6	62
2020-03	Rec	36	22	64	18	39	62
2020-02	Exp	37	26	64	18	44	62
2019-12	Exp	30	9	64	18	21	62
2019-09	Rec	34	17	64	19	36	62
2019-07	Rec	41	55	64	19	39	62
2019-04	Rec	40	59	64	19	27	62
2019-03	Exp	42	42	64	20	53	62
2019-01	Exp	38	17	64	20	53	62

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022