Rankings/Jefferson City, MO

Jefferson City, MO

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 27620Compare

Risk Rank: #258 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -20

31score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jefferson City's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 258th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Jefferson City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +19% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp40

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp38

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +19% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+19.3%p69

Days on Market YoY

+11.4%p70

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.7%p97

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.3%p29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-4.2%p40

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.38p10

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.6%p11

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$215p56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50.1%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Jefferson City's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Cole County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Moniteau County anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.2Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Jefferson City, MO shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Cole County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Moniteau County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Cole CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	56.2%	50	0	100
Callaway County	50	Average	32.6%	0	100	50
Osage CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Moniteau CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	11.1%	100	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	39	48	49	42	30	56
2026-05	Rec	44	70	47	42	39	56
2025-12	Exp	42	89	52	37	7	56
2025-11	Rec	47	97	64	45	4	63
2025-09	Rec	51	97	64	45	26	63
2025-06	Ress	50	97	64	41	27	63
2025-04	Hyp	51	95	64	41	33	63
2025-03	Rec	37	27	64	33	23	63
2025-02	Hyp	37	26	64	33	24	63
2024-12	Hyp	42	65	64	36	17	63
2024-09	Ress	44	58	64	30	36	63
2024-07	Ress	43	55	64	30	37	63
2024-06	Hyp	45	77	64	33	24	63
2024-05	Rec	45	84	64	33	17	63
2024-04	Hyp	46	87	64	33	22	63
2024-02	Hyp	48	96	64	37	21	63
2023-12	Exp	47	78	64	36	30	63
2023-10	Exp	46	71	64	36	31	63
2023-09	Rec	47	88	64	36	20	63
2023-07	Rec	49	97	64	36	25	63
2023-06	Exp	51	87	64	31	51	63
2023-04	Exp	49	79	64	31	46	63
2023-03	Ress	50	80	64	29	56	63
2023-02	Exp	51	79	64	29	61	63
2023-01	Rec	54	79	64	29	77	63
2022-11	Rec	50	74	64	19	72	63
2022-10	Hyp	48	66	64	19	64	63
2022-08	Hyp	49	48	64	17	92	63
2022-06	Ress	50	60	64	17	83	63
2022-04	Ress	49	46	64	17	93	63
2022-02	Rec	49	49	64	16	90	63
2021-12	Rec	54	69	64	22	95	62
2021-11	Exp	53	65	64	22	97	62
2021-09	Exp	46	35	64	19	89	62
2021-06	Exp	51	51	64	20	98	62
2021-05	Rec	50	50	64	20	95	62
2021-03	Rec	30	14	64	17	14	62
2021-02	Exp	29	12	64	17	12	62
2020-12	Exp	30	9	64	16	17	62
2020-11	Rec	30	12	64	16	13	62
2020-09	Rec	30	14	64	17	11	62
2020-06	Rec	28	6	64	17	6	62
2020-03	Rec	36	22	64	18	39	62
2020-02	Exp	37	26	64	18	44	62
2019-12	Exp	30	9	64	18	21	62
2019-09	Rec	34	17	64	19	36	62
2019-07	Rec	41	55	64	19	39	62
2019-04	Rec	40	59	64	19	27	62
2019-03	Exp	42	42	64	20	53	62
2019-01	Exp	38	17	64	20	53	62

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023