Rankings/Jacksonville, NC

Jacksonville, NC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 27340Compare

Risk Rank: #30 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Jacksonville experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Jacksonville's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 30th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by employment and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p92 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p78 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p72 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+9.8%p59

Days on Market YoY

-4.0%p40

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.3%p89

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum30

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth68

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita72

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability78

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration34

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.3%	p30
Permit Growth	+7.8%	p68
Permits/1K Pop	6.38	p72
Affordability	0.31	p78
Employment	-1.1%	p92
Net AGI Migration	+$57K	p34

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+7.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+9.8%

Days on Market YoY-4.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	56	46	26	78	85	33
2025-09	Rec	51	50	26	78	51	33
2025-08	Hyp	53	37	26	78	75	33
2025-06	Hyp	46	25	26	75	51	33
2025-05	Rec	55	55	26	75	74	33
2025-04	Hyp	62	81	26	75	89	33
2025-03	Rec	60	99	26	80	57	33
2025-02	Hyp	61	99	26	80	62	33
2024-12	Rec	63	95	26	76	79	33
2024-11	Hyp	62	86	26	76	87	33
2024-09	Hyp	64	98	26	79	82	33
2024-06	Hyp	50	57	26	72	45	33
2024-05	Ress	48	71	26	72	16	33
2024-03	Ress	48	50	26	67	46	33
2024-02	Hyp	43	42	26	67	23	33
2023-12	Ress	47	71	26	77	10	33
2023-10	Ress	45	49	26	77	16	33
2023-08	Rec	52	92	26	74	22	33
2023-07	Hyp	55	100	26	74	32	33
2023-05	Hyp	53	97	26	68	27	33
2023-02	Ress	52	96	26	71	20	33
2022-12	Ress	54	99	26	81	16	33
2022-09	Ress	48	50	26	67	48	33
2022-06	Hyp	43	46	26	61	24	33
2022-05	Exp	52	43	26	61	79	33
2022-04	Rec	50	40	26	61	72	33
2022-02	Rec	58	65	26	69	87	33
2022-01	Exp	56	59	26	69	79	33
2021-11	Exp	57	80	26	77	43	47
2021-08	Exp	51	62	26	72	33	47
2021-05	Exp	48	66	26	73	12	47
2021-03	Rec	50	78	26	78	3	47
2021-01	Rec	46	54	26	78	3	47
2020-10	Rec	40	22	26	79	4	44
2020-07	Rec	39	14	26	79	6	44
2020-04	Hyp	56	77	26	83	36	44
2020-03	Ress	63	99	26	86	55	44
2020-01	Ress	63	98	26	86	58	44
2019-10	Ress	50	54	26	83	17	54
2019-09	Exp	52	82	26	84	0	54
2019-07	Exp	67	97	26	84	75	54
2019-04	Exp	66	97	26	84	67	54
2019-03	Rec	65	95	26	82	64	54
2019-01	Rec	65	95	26	82	67	54

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022