Rankings/Jacksonville, FL

Jacksonville, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27260Compare

Risk Rank: #213 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jacksonville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 213th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Jacksonville experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp85

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap83

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-3.7%p45

Days on Market YoY

+6.4%p61

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p52

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Market Pricing

Typical Home Value$380,429-3.6%

Typical Rent$1,660/mo+0.4%

Gross Rental Yield5.2%

Price Cuts24.5% of listings

Sale-to-List97.3%-0.2pp YoY

Price Tiers YoYBottom -4.8% · Top -3.3%

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.6%p29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.4%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.81p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Jacksonville's 5 counties show moderate divergence — St. Johns County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Baker County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.2

5 of 5 counties scored

Jacksonville, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Johns County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Baker County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Duval County	67	Elevated	20.0%	100	25	75
St. Johns CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	20.0%	25	75	100
Clay County	50	Average	20.0%	75	50	25
Baker CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	20.0%	0	100	0
Nassau County	33	Below Average	20.0%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	38	27	10	85	16	3
2025-09	Rec	40	18	10	85	40	3
2025-07	Hyp	40	9	10	85	47	3
2025-05	Hyp	45	43	10	86	39	3
2025-02	Hyp	40	22	10	85	30	3
2024-11	Hyp	40	21	10	87	35	3
2024-08	Hyp	41	40	10	87	20	3
2024-07	Ress	41	40	10	87	21	3
2024-05	Ress	37	8	10	85	27	3
2024-02	Hyp	39	15	10	88	30	3
2024-01	Exp	40	15	10	88	40	3
2023-11	Exp	39	18	10	89	26	3
2023-09	Rec	41	17	10	90	37	3
2023-07	Rec	42	19	10	90	42	3
2023-06	Hyp	43	38	10	91	29	3
2023-04	Hyp	47	62	10	91	31	3
2023-03	Ress	48	74	10	91	24	3
2023-01	Ress	48	78	10	91	21	3
2022-10	Ress	47	82	10	86	16	3
2022-07	Ress	48	92	10	86	13	3
2022-05	Hyp	48	89	10	82	20	3
2022-04	Exp	48	89	10	82	19	3
2022-02	Rec	51	88	10	82	38	3
2021-12	Rec	54	89	10	87	46	3
2021-11	Exp	51	89	10	87	32	3
2021-09	Exp	50	86	10	84	33	3
2021-06	Exp	53	79	10	83	59	3
2021-04	Rec	50	76	10	83	45	3
2021-02	Rec	45	77	10	83	9	3
2020-11	Rec	42	64	10	78	12	4
2020-08	Rec	44	74	10	77	15	4
2020-05	Exp	45	79	10	78	12	4
2020-03	Exp	43	56	10	77	23	4
2020-02	Rec	43	58	10	76	24	4
2019-12	Rec	46	76	10	78	23	5
2019-11	Exp	46	76	10	78	23	5
2019-09	Exp	42	44	10	76	29	5
2019-08	Rec	40	41	10	76	21	5
2019-06	Rec	46	73	10	78	20	5
2019-03	Rec	49	82	10	76	32	5
2019-02	Hyp	48	79	10	76	29	5
2019-01	Hyp	48	79	10	76	34	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022