US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Jacksonville, FL

Jacksonville, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27260Compare
Risk Rank: #204 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m): +4
43score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jacksonville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 204th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Jacksonville experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp85
Mortgage payment / income
Permits per Capitap83
Permits per 1,000 residents
Employmentp34
12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
-3.7%p45
Days on Market YoY
+6.4%p61
Months in status5
Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-1.1%p47
Months in status8
Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumBelow Avg
+1.6%p28

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg
-14.4%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk
7.81p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk
0.33p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg
+0.7%p34

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk
+$915Kp2

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+191 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.92High
Completion-Permit Divergence
+1.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling
YoY Permit Growth
-14.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate
Largest SectorHealth Care 19.3%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

Jacksonville's 5 counties show moderate divergence — St. Johns County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Nassau County anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.7Limited data
5 of 5 counties scored

Jacksonville, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Johns County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Nassau County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)
CountyScore
St. Johns CountyRisk Driver
75
Duval County
56
Clay County
50
Nassau CountyStabilizer
44
Baker County<5%
25
Score History
MonthScore
2025-1138
2025-0940
2025-0740
2025-0545
2025-0240
2024-1140
2024-0841
2024-0741
2024-0537
2024-0239
2024-0140
2023-1139
2023-0941
2023-0742
2023-0643
2023-0447
2023-0348
2023-0148
2022-1047
2022-0748
2022-0548
2022-0448
2022-0251
2021-1254
2021-1151
2021-0950
2021-0653
2021-0450
2021-0245
2020-1142
2020-0844
2020-0545
2020-0343
2020-0243
2019-1246
2019-1146
2019-0942
2019-0840
2019-0646
2019-0349
2019-0248
2019-0148
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2026-01
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2023