Rankings/Jacksonville, FL

Jacksonville, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27260Compare

Risk Rank: #204 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jacksonville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 204th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Jacksonville experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp85

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap83

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp34

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-3.7%p45

Days on Market YoY

+6.4%p61

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p47

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.6%p28

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.4%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.81p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p34

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$915Kp2

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Jacksonville's 5 counties show moderate divergence — St. Johns County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Nassau County anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.7Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Jacksonville, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Johns County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Nassau County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
St. Johns CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	18.2%	25	75	100
Duval County	56	Elevated	60.8%	100	25	75
Clay County	50	Average	13.5%	75	50	25
Nassau CountyStabilizer	44	Below Average	5.8%	50	0	50
Baker County<5%	25	Low Risk	1.7%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	38	27	10	85	16	3
2025-09	Rec	40	18	10	85	40	3
2025-07	Hyp	40	9	10	85	47	3
2025-05	Hyp	45	43	10	86	39	3
2025-02	Hyp	40	22	10	85	30	3
2024-11	Hyp	40	21	10	87	35	3
2024-08	Hyp	41	40	10	87	20	3
2024-07	Ress	41	40	10	87	21	3
2024-05	Ress	37	8	10	85	27	3
2024-02	Hyp	39	15	10	88	30	3
2024-01	Exp	40	15	10	88	40	3
2023-11	Exp	39	18	10	89	26	3
2023-09	Rec	41	17	10	90	37	3
2023-07	Rec	42	19	10	90	42	3
2023-06	Hyp	43	38	10	91	29	3
2023-04	Hyp	47	62	10	91	31	3
2023-03	Ress	48	74	10	91	24	3
2023-01	Ress	48	78	10	91	21	3
2022-10	Ress	47	82	10	86	16	3
2022-07	Ress	48	92	10	86	13	3
2022-05	Hyp	48	89	10	82	20	3
2022-04	Exp	48	89	10	82	19	3
2022-02	Rec	51	88	10	82	38	3
2021-12	Rec	54	89	10	87	46	3
2021-11	Exp	51	89	10	87	32	3
2021-09	Exp	50	86	10	84	33	3
2021-06	Exp	53	79	10	83	59	3
2021-04	Rec	50	76	10	83	45	3
2021-02	Rec	45	77	10	83	9	3
2020-11	Rec	42	64	10	78	12	4
2020-08	Rec	44	74	10	77	15	4
2020-05	Exp	45	79	10	78	12	4
2020-03	Exp	43	56	10	77	23	4
2020-02	Rec	43	58	10	76	24	4
2019-12	Rec	46	76	10	78	23	5
2019-11	Exp	46	76	10	78	23	5
2019-09	Exp	42	44	10	76	29	5
2019-08	Rec	40	41	10	76	21	5
2019-06	Rec	46	73	10	78	20	5
2019-03	Rec	49	82	10	76	32	5
2019-02	Hyp	48	79	10	76	29	5
2019-01	Hyp	48	79	10	76	34	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023