US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Jacksonville, FL

Jacksonville, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27260Compare
Risk Rank: #213 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m): +4
43score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jacksonville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 213th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Jacksonville experienced a market correction from early 2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp85
Mortgage payment / income
Permits per Capitap83
Permits per 1,000 residents
Employmentp33
12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
-3.7%p45
Days on Market YoY
+6.4%p61
Months in status5
Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-1.1%p52
Months in status8
Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Market Pricing

Typical Home Value$380,429-3.6%
Typical Rent$1,660/mo+0.4%
Gross Rental Yield5.2%
Price Cuts24.5% of listings
Sale-to-List97.3%-0.2pp YoY
Price Tiers YoYBottom -4.8% · Top -3.3%
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumBelow Avg
+1.6%p29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg
-14.4%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk
7.81p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk
0.33p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg
+0.7%p33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk
+$2Mp3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+189 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.91High
Completion-Permit Divergence
-3.2 ppNormal
Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling
YoY Permit Growth
-14.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate
Largest SectorHealth Care 19.3%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

Jacksonville's 5 counties show moderate divergence — St. Johns County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Baker County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.2
5 of 5 counties scored

Jacksonville, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Johns County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Baker County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)
CountyScore
Duval County
67
St. Johns CountyRisk Driver
67
Clay County
50
Baker CountyStabilizer
33
Nassau County
33
Score History
MonthScore
2025-1138
2025-0940
2025-0740
2025-0545
2025-0240
2024-1140
2024-0841
2024-0741
2024-0537
2024-0239
2024-0140
2023-1139
2023-0941
2023-0742
2023-0643
2023-0447
2023-0348
2023-0148
2022-1047
2022-0748
2022-0548
2022-0448
2022-0251
2021-1254
2021-1151
2021-0950
2021-0653
2021-0450
2021-0245
2020-1142
2020-0844
2020-0545
2020-0343
2020-0243
2019-1246
2019-1146
2019-0942
2019-0840
2019-0646
2019-0349
2019-0248
2019-0148
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2025-12
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2022