Rankings/Jackson, TN

Jackson, TN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27180Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -16

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Jackson experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Jackson's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p83 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p60 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p49 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+24% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+23.5%p73

Days on Market YoY

+6.4%p61

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.9%p92

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum11

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth38

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita26

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability49

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.3%	p11
Permit Growth	-8.0%	p38
Permits/1K Pop	2.27	p26
Affordability	0.27	p49
Employment	-0.5%	p83
Net AGI Migration	-$1K	p60

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-8.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+23.5%

Days on Market YoY+6.4%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Jackson's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Chester County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Gibson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.8Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Jackson, TN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Chester County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Gibson County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Chester CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	67	100	33
Madison County	56	Elevated	25.0%	0	67	100
Crockett County	44	Below Average	25.0%	100	33	0
Gibson CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	25.0%	33	0	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	44	5	49	47	73	59
2025-10	Rec	44	4	49	47	80	59
2025-08	Hyp	45	8	49	47	79	59
2025-06	Ress	43	10	49	50	62	59
2025-04	Ress	40	3	49	50	52	59
2025-01	Hyp	48	34	49	51	66	59
2024-11	Hyp	58	87	49	59	63	59
2024-10	Ress	52	89	49	59	30	59
2024-08	Ress	56	60	49	54	84	59
2024-07	Hyp	56	64	49	54	81	59
2024-06	Ress	59	97	49	62	58	59
2024-04	Ress	61	97	49	62	70	59
2024-03	Hyp	52	82	49	55	40	59
2024-01	Exp	52	68	49	54	51	59
2023-11	Exp	51	44	49	52	72	59
2023-09	Rec	46	35	49	50	58	59
2023-07	Rec	45	55	49	50	29	59
2023-06	Hyp	48	56	49	48	49	59
2023-04	Hyp	53	74	49	48	60	59
2023-03	Ress	58	88	49	49	76	59
2023-01	Ress	58	73	49	49	88	59
2022-10	Ress	60	97	49	58	72	59
2022-09	Hyp	58	88	49	53	70	59
2022-07	Ress	60	89	49	53	80	59
2022-05	Ress	58	79	49	46	87	59
2022-03	Hyp	62	92	49	50	92	59
2022-02	Exp	61	94	49	50	87	59
2021-12	Exp	61	90	49	42	97	59
2021-09	Exp	56	85	49	39	78	59
2021-06	Exp	58	89	49	38	89	59
2021-04	Rec	56	90	49	38	72	59
2021-02	Rec	36	44	49	31	9	59
2021-01	Exp	35	39	49	31	6	59
2020-11	Exp	36	49	49	29	8	52
2020-10	Rec	38	61	49	29	9	52
2020-08	Rec	41	75	49	32	12	52
2020-05	Rec	31	15	49	30	13	52
2020-04	Exp	30	9	49	30	15	52
2020-02	Exp	45	59	49	33	48	52
2019-12	Rec	38	20	49	29	50	52
2019-10	Rec	36	14	49	29	48	52
2019-08	Exp	39	16	49	30	58	52
2019-06	Exp	50	78	49	36	59	52
2019-03	Rec	47	67	49	32	57	52
2019-01	Rec	47	76	49	32	46	52

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022