Rankings/Jackson, TN

Jackson, TN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27180Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jackson's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Jackson experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+24% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump68

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp60

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+24% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+23.5%p73

Days on Market YoY

+6.4%p61

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.6%p40

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.0%p68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-8.0%p38

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.27p25

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p60

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.5%p83

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$237p56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-8.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 38.4%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Jackson's 4 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low5.1Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Jackson, TN shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Madison County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Crockett County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Madison CountyRisk Driver	58	Elevated	54.6%	0	67	100
Chester County	50	Average	9.7%	67	100	33
Gibson County	50	Average	28.0%	33	0	67
Crockett CountyStabilizer	42	Below Average	7.7%	100	33	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	44	5	49	47	73	59
2025-10	Rec	44	4	49	47	80	59
2025-08	Hyp	45	8	49	47	79	59
2025-06	Ress	43	10	49	50	62	59
2025-04	Ress	40	3	49	50	52	59
2025-01	Hyp	48	34	49	51	66	59
2024-11	Hyp	58	87	49	59	63	59
2024-10	Ress	52	89	49	59	30	59
2024-08	Ress	56	60	49	54	84	59
2024-07	Hyp	56	64	49	54	81	59
2024-06	Ress	59	97	49	62	58	59
2024-04	Ress	61	97	49	62	70	59
2024-03	Hyp	52	82	49	55	40	59
2024-01	Exp	52	68	49	54	51	59
2023-11	Exp	51	44	49	52	72	59
2023-09	Rec	46	35	49	50	58	59
2023-07	Rec	45	55	49	50	29	59
2023-06	Hyp	48	56	49	48	49	59
2023-04	Hyp	53	74	49	48	60	59
2023-03	Ress	58	88	49	49	76	59
2023-01	Ress	58	73	49	49	88	59
2022-10	Ress	60	97	49	58	72	59
2022-09	Hyp	58	88	49	53	70	59
2022-07	Ress	60	89	49	53	80	59
2022-05	Ress	58	79	49	46	87	59
2022-03	Hyp	62	92	49	50	92	59
2022-02	Exp	61	94	49	50	87	59
2021-12	Exp	61	90	49	42	97	59
2021-09	Exp	56	85	49	39	78	59
2021-06	Exp	58	89	49	38	89	59
2021-04	Rec	56	90	49	38	72	59
2021-02	Rec	36	44	49	31	9	59
2021-01	Exp	35	39	49	31	6	59
2020-11	Exp	36	49	49	29	8	52
2020-10	Rec	38	61	49	29	9	52
2020-08	Rec	41	75	49	32	12	52
2020-05	Rec	31	15	49	30	13	52
2020-04	Exp	30	9	49	30	15	52
2020-02	Exp	45	59	49	33	48	52
2019-12	Rec	38	20	49	29	50	52
2019-10	Rec	36	14	49	29	48	52
2019-08	Exp	39	16	49	30	58	52
2019-06	Exp	50	78	49	36	59	52
2019-03	Rec	47	67	49	32	57	52
2019-01	Rec	47	76	49	32	46	52

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023