Rankings/Jackson, MS

Jackson, MS

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 27140Compare

Risk Rank: #8 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +27

67score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Jackson's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 8th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Jackson experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp95

YoY permit change

Price Momentump91

12-month HPI change

Migrationp85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.6%p59

Days on Market YoY

-1.5%p45

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p70

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.6%p91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+52.3%p95

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.87p34

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.8%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$53Kp85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+52.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 39.8%

6 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Jackson's 7 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low3.0Limited data

7 of 8 counties scored

Jackson, MS shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Rankin County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Elevated).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rankin CountyRisk Driver	66	Elevated	26.7%	33	50	100
Hinds County	62	Elevated	36.7%	50	83	67
Yazoo County<5%	58	Elevated	4.2%	83	67	50
Madison CountyStabilizer	58	Elevated	18.8%	17	33	83
Holmes CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Simpson County<5%	46	Average	4.3%	0	100	17
Scott County<5%	29	Below Average	4.7%	100	0	0
Copiah County<5%	29	Below Average	4.7%	67	17	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	44	63	73	14	8	85
2025-10	Exp	40	29	71	11	29	77
2025-07	Rec	40	27	71	11	32	77
2025-05	Rec	40	41	71	11	12	77
2025-03	Ress	40	38	71	11	16	77
2025-01	Hyp	38	23	71	11	21	77
2024-11	Hyp	42	38	71	15	25	77
2024-08	Hyp	49	63	71	16	44	77
2024-07	Ress	53	79	71	16	50	77
2024-05	Ress	52	39	71	11	87	77
2024-04	Hyp	53	47	71	11	86	77
2024-03	Rec	54	53	71	15	81	77
2024-01	Hyp	46	9	71	15	82	77
2023-11	Hyp	49	27	71	25	72	77
2023-08	Hyp	44	17	71	20	54	77
2023-05	Hyp	38	19	71	18	22	77
2023-03	Ress	52	70	71	29	42	77
2023-01	Ress	48	38	71	29	49	77
2022-10	Ress	46	28	71	24	51	77
2022-07	Hyp	46	15	71	21	66	77
2022-05	Hyp	47	3	71	21	88	77
2022-04	Exp	48	4	71	21	90	77
2022-02	Exp	48	17	71	24	78	77
2021-11	Exp	52	21	71	27	91	80
2021-08	Exp	50	8	71	27	90	80
2021-05	Rec	46	9	71	26	70	80
2021-03	Rec	42	10	71	30	36	80
2020-12	Rec	38	3	71	24	28	81
2020-09	Rec	42	6	71	27	46	81
2020-06	Rec	44	8	71	28	53	81
2020-04	Exp	44	8	71	27	54	81
2020-02	Exp	54	23	71	32	94	81
2020-01	Rec	54	26	71	32	93	81
2019-11	Rec	55	28	71	32	92	84
2019-09	Exp	51	15	71	32	83	84
2019-07	Exp	51	19	71	32	78	84
2019-06	Rec	52	22	71	34	76	84
2019-04	Rec	54	20	71	34	90	84
2019-03	Exp	52	8	71	35	92	84
2019-01	Exp	51	6	71	35	89	84

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023