Rankings/Jackson, MS

Jackson, MS

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27140Compare

Risk Rank: #222 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Jackson experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 5 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Jackson's housing market shows average risk, ranking 222nd of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p77 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p73 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p57 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+4.4%p53

Days on Market YoY

-4.8%p38

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p83

Months in status43

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth73

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita24

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability12

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment8

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p57
Permit Growth	+12.3%	p73
Permits/1K Pop	2.17	p24
Affordability	0.23	p12
Employment	+1.6%	p8
Net AGI Migration	-$42K	p77

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+12.3%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+4.4%

Days on Market YoY-4.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 9 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Jackson's counties diverge significantly — Rankin County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Scott County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9

7 of 8 counties scored

Jackson, MS shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Rankin County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Scott County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rankin CountyRisk Driver	94	High Risk	14.3%	100	83	100
Madison County	66	Elevated	14.3%	83	33	83
Hinds County	61	Elevated	14.3%	67	50	67
Simpson County	55	Average	14.3%	33	100	33
Holmes CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Yazoo County	45	Below Average	14.3%	17	67	50
Copiah County	22	Low Risk	14.3%	50	0	17
Scott CountyStabilizer	6	Low Risk	14.3%	0	17	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	39	42	71	11	7	77
2025-09	Exp	36	27	71	11	5	77
2025-07	Rec	40	27	71	11	32	77
2025-05	Rec	40	41	71	11	12	77
2025-03	Ress	40	38	71	11	16	77
2025-01	Hyp	38	23	71	11	21	77
2024-11	Hyp	42	38	71	15	25	77
2024-08	Hyp	49	63	71	16	44	77
2024-07	Ress	53	79	71	16	50	77
2024-05	Ress	52	39	71	11	87	77
2024-04	Hyp	53	47	71	11	86	77
2024-03	Rec	54	53	71	15	81	77
2024-01	Hyp	46	9	71	15	82	77
2023-11	Hyp	49	27	71	25	72	77
2023-08	Hyp	44	17	71	20	54	77
2023-05	Hyp	38	19	71	18	22	77
2023-03	Ress	52	70	71	29	42	77
2023-01	Ress	48	38	71	29	49	77
2022-10	Ress	46	28	71	24	51	77
2022-07	Hyp	46	15	71	21	66	77
2022-05	Hyp	47	3	71	21	88	77
2022-04	Exp	48	4	71	21	90	77
2022-02	Exp	48	17	71	24	78	77
2021-11	Exp	52	21	71	27	91	80
2021-08	Exp	50	8	71	27	90	80
2021-05	Rec	46	9	71	26	70	80
2021-03	Rec	42	10	71	30	36	80
2020-12	Rec	38	3	71	24	28	81
2020-09	Rec	42	6	71	27	46	81
2020-06	Rec	44	8	71	28	53	81
2020-04	Exp	44	8	71	27	54	81
2020-02	Exp	54	23	71	32	94	81
2020-01	Rec	54	26	71	32	93	81
2019-11	Rec	55	28	71	32	92	84
2019-09	Exp	51	15	71	32	83	84
2019-07	Exp	51	19	71	32	78	84
2019-06	Rec	52	22	71	34	76	84
2019-04	Rec	54	20	71	34	90	84
2019-03	Exp	52	8	71	35	92	84
2019-01	Exp	51	6	71	35	89	84

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022