Rankings/Jackson, MI

Jackson, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 27100Compare

Risk Rank: #87 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Jackson experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Jackson's housing market shows average risk, ranking 87th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p99 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p95 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p59 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-6% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-6.2%p42

Days on Market YoY

+1.8%p51

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-4.3%p14

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth95

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability59

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration44

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+8.2%	p99
Permit Growth	+59.1%	p95
Permits/1K Pop	1.85	p17
Affordability	0.28	p59
Employment	+1.2%	p15
Net AGI Migration	+$24K	p44

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+59.1%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY-6.2%

Days on Market YoY+1.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 7 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	58	99	99	58	29	44
2025-10	Rec	57	98	99	58	23	44
2025-08	Rec	64	97	99	58	64	44
2025-05	Ress	65	82	99	49	92	44
2025-04	Rec	62	79	99	49	78	44
2025-03	Hyp	56	47	99	41	86	44
2025-01	Hyp	58	67	99	41	73	44
2024-10	Hyp	65	90	99	43	92	44
2024-09	Ress	66	92	99	44	93	44
2024-07	Ress	65	80	99	44	99	44
2024-06	Hyp	66	87	99	44	98	44
2024-05	Rec	66	88	99	44	96	44
2024-04	Ress	65	87	99	44	96	44
2024-02	Hyp	62	77	99	40	92	44
2024-01	Exp	63	76	99	40	96	44
2023-11	Exp	55	38	99	37	89	44
2023-09	Rec	54	38	99	39	80	44
2023-07	Rec	51	35	99	39	68	44
2023-06	Exp	52	27	99	37	82	44
2023-04	Exp	50	32	99	36	69	44
2023-03	Rec	52	27	99	36	84	44
2023-01	Rec	51	27	99	36	79	44
2022-12	Ress	51	50	99	49	44	44
2022-11	Rec	50	48	99	49	41	44
2022-09	Exp	54	50	99	48	61	44
2022-07	Exp	55	46	99	48	69	44
2022-06	Rec	40	20	99	44	10	44
2022-04	Rec	42	14	99	44	29	44
2022-03	Exp	44	15	99	45	38	44
2022-01	Exp	40	17	99	45	14	44
2021-10	Rec	48	25	99	35	59	47
2021-08	Rec	45	18	99	36	50	47
2021-07	Exp	42	16	99	36	34	47
2021-05	Exp	42	42	99	40	4	47
2021-04	Rec	45	52	99	40	9	47
2021-02	Rec	57	56	99	40	80	47
2021-01	Exp	58	54	99	40	88	47
2020-11	Exp	54	40	99	41	73	49
2020-10	Rec	52	37	99	41	67	49
2020-08	Rec	64	92	99	44	81	49
2020-05	Rec	57	38	99	41	95	49
2020-04	Exp	55	25	99	41	93	49
2020-02	Exp	44	36	99	42	19	49
2020-01	Rec	50	43	99	42	45	49
2019-11	Rec	56	82	99	42	50	39
2019-10	Exp	62	89	99	42	82	39
2019-08	Exp	52	48	99	39	63	39
2019-06	Rec	61	81	99	43	83	39
2019-04	Rec	61	90	99	44	73	39
2019-03	Exp	63	85	99	42	91	39
2019-01	Exp	58	75	99	42	72	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022